Today · 2026-07-03

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#6 Pete Alonso vs Brady Singer FIP 5.89 HR/FB 25.0% #10 Paul Goldschmidt vs Mike Paredes FIP 5.48 HR/FB 22.2%

📦 STACK Gerrit Cole FIP 4.78 HR/FB 16.7% → #2 Byron Buxton, #7 Kody Clemens

📦 STACK Mike Paredes FIP 5.48 HR/FB 11.8% → #3 Ben Rice, #10 Paul Goldschmidt

📦 STACK Michael King FIP 4.25 HR/FB 15.4% → #4 Shohei Ohtani, #9 Max Muncy

📦 STACK Tyler Phillips FIP 4.42 HR/FB 16.0% → #8 Nick Kurtz, #13 Shea Langeliers

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-02. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.8% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Hunter Goodman (R)	80	·	●	SF Bullpen Proxy SF @ COL · Coors Field	8:10p	🟢 A	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%17.1% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	●○●○●	0.0×	·	SF Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.98 FIP4.19 IP760.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-20 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-20 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note65°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
2	Byron Buxton (R) ³	75	·	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) MIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	2.5×	·	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/90.93 FIP3.66 IP784.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-46 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind8.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-46 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note84°F, wind 8 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
3	Ben Rice (L) ³	73	-12.4	●	Mike Paredes (RHP) MIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo102.3 mph Angle28.0° Distance395 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○●○	0.3×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/91.10 FIP4.28 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-26 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind8.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-26 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note84°F, wind 8 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
4	Shohei Ohtani (L)	69	-12.3	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffMatt Krook Exit Velo112.3 mph Angle25.0° Distance432 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.31 IP768.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.3°F Wind2.6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note61°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
5	Junior Caminero (R) ²	68	-10.9	●	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) TB @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	24	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffSeth Lugo Exit Velo104.8 mph Angle27.0° Distance425 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	●●●●○	0.3×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.88 IP796.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-23 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.0°F Wind3.7 mph S Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-23 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note79°F, wind 4 mph S (in) — modifier: +1
6	Pete Alonso (R) ³	68	-10.2	●	Brady Singer (RHP) BAL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffZack Littell Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○●○○○	0.8×	·	CIN Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP5.06 IP760.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-18 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.1°F Wind1.9 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
7	Kody Clemens (L) ³	67	-10.5	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) MIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffTatsuya Imai Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance399 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○●○○●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/90.93 FIP3.66 IP784.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-20 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind8.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-20 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note84°F, wind 8 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
8	Nick Kurtz (L) ⁴	67	-14.3	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) MIA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	4.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.96 IP809.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR NoteUnknown stadium
9	Max Muncy (S)	66	-4.7	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls55 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○●○○○	1.0×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.31 IP768.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.3°F Wind2.6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note61°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
10	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ³	65	-7.0	●	Mike Paredes (RHP) MIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV86.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance427 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○○○○	1.7×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/91.10 FIP4.28 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-43 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind8.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-43 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note84°F, wind 8 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
11	Rafael Devers (L)	64	·	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) SF @ COL · Coors Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffTaylor Clarke Exit Velo111.3 mph Angle24.0° Distance424 ft StadiumChase Field	●○○●○	0.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.84 IP779.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-38 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-38 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note65°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
12	Shea Langeliers (R) ⁴	64	-16.3	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) MIA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffCharlie Barnes Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle27.0° Distance433 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.96 IP809.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
13	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ⁵	62	-12.0	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%7.9% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle38.0° Distance390 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.10 FIP4.31 IP746.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-5 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
14	Jake Bauers (L) ²	60	-4.2	●	Jose Cabrera (RHP) MIL @ AZ · Chase Field	9:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo106.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance425 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○●○○	0.5×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.33 FIP4.62 IP766.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Chase Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.4°F Wind4.5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note79°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1
15	James Wood (L) ⁴	60	-14.2	●	Mitch Keller (RHP) PIT @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV95.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffAlec Gamboa Exit Velo104.2 mph Angle26.0° Distance393 ft StadiumFenway Park	○○●○●	0.0×	·	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.03 FIP4.02 IP796.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-69 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.4°F Wind3.8 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-69 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note79°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1
16	Samuel Basallo (L) ⁴	60	-9.9	●	Brady Singer (RHP) BAL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffJosé Soriano Exit Velo112.5 mph Angle22.0° Distance373 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	●○○○○	0.6×	·	CIN Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP5.06 IP760.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-19 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.1°F Wind1.9 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
17	Heliot Ramos (R) ²	60	·	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) SF @ COL · Coors Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	6	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffZac Gallen Exit Velo110.7 mph Angle22.0° Distance427 ft StadiumChase Field	○○●○●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.84 IP779.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-30 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-30 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 6 HR Note65°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
18	Freddie Freeman (L)	60	-5.2	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffJ.T. Ginn Exit Velo105.2 mph Angle32.0° Distance431 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.31 IP768.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.3°F Wind2.6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note61°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
19	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁶	59	-16.2	●	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV94.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffJoe Ryan Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle37.0° Distance395 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○●○	0.3×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.14 FIP4.05 IP733.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-10 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.0°F Wind3.7 mph S Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note79°F, wind 4 mph S (in) — modifier: +1
20	Owen Caissie (L)	59	-4.5	●	Jack Perkins (RHP) MIA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffJohn Brebbia Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance453 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○●○○	0.4×	·	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.47 FIP4.83 IP812.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR NoteUnknown stadium
21	Mookie Betts (R)	59	-5.4	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffRon Marinaccio Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance402 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.31 IP768.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.3°F Wind2.6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note61°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
22	Casey Schmitt (R) ³	59	·	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) SF @ COL · Coors Field	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-20 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance414 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○○○○○	2.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.84 IP779.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-18 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note65°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
23	Ian Happ (S) ³	58	-9.5	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	4:05p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	●○○○○	1.0×	1	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.10 FIP4.31 IP746.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
24	Miguel Vargas (R) ³	58	-6.1	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CWS @ CLE · Progressive Field	7:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffLuinder Avila Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance407 ft StadiumRate Field	●○○○○	0.8×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.18 FIP3.99 IP790.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.8°F Wind6.4 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
25	Jordan Walker (R) ⁴	58	-11.4	●	David Peterson (LHP) STL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	4:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV93.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-02 OffHurston Waldrep Exit Velo104.4 mph Angle35.0° Distance396 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.59 FIP4.83 IP785.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+19 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
26	Brandon Lowe (L) ³	57	-7.3	●	Foster Griffin (LHP) PIT @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChase Burns Exit Velo107.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance396 ft StadiumPNC Park	●○○○○	0.8×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.42 FIP4.73 IP829.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-72 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.4°F Wind3.8 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-72 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note79°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1
27	Dansby Swanson (R) ²	57	-6.0	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	4:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%7.1% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffRodolfo Durán Exit Velo92.7 mph Angle34.0° Distance387 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.10 FIP4.31 IP746.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
28	Josh Bell (S) ³	57	-9.3	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) MIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffTatsuya Imai Exit Velo112.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance452 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○●○●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/90.93 FIP3.66 IP784.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-37 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind8.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-37 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note84°F, wind 8 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
29	Elly De La Cruz (S) ²	57	-11.6	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) BAL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffRobert Gasser Exit Velo102.5 mph Angle34.0° Distance412 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○●○○○	0.6×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.07 FIP4.11 IP787.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-17 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.1°F Wind1.9 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
30	Andy Pages (R)	57	-6.4	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle30.0° Distance387 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○●○○○	0.5×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.31 IP768.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.3°F Wind2.6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note61°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.9%

▲ +4.0 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 14.9% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-02

21 HRs

38%

8 caught / 21 HRs

in top 50

#6 Manny Machado

34.4%

🔵

#9 Mickey Moniak

30.1%

🔵

#28 Carter Jensen

20.6%

🟠

#35 Jackson Merrill

10.5%

🟠

#40 Jordan Walker

14.4%

🟠

#43 Garrett Mitchell

14.6%

🟠

#45 Jake McCarthy

11.9%

🟠

#49 Sal Stewart

16.4%

⚪

Missed

Endy Rodríguez Cedric Mullins Alec Burleson Elias Díaz Hao-Yu Lee +8 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Junior Caminero ×5 Hunter Goodman ×4 Kody Clemens ×3 Garrett Mitchell ×2 Esmerlyn Valdez ×2

❄️ Cold

Dillon Dingler 0 of 6d Juan Soto 0 of 6d Gunnar Henderson 0 of 6d Jac Caglianone 0 of 5d Matt Olson 0 of 5d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.1%

B 19.9%

C+ 16.0%

C 13.4%

D 8.6%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-03

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.