TOR
@
10:10p
SEA
Stadium Conditions
T-Mobile Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.83×
Wind 4 mph slight_out
60°F
retractable
+2
7 mph · out
68°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · out
66°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · slight_out
63°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-6
4 mph · slight_out
61°F
10:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
3 mph · cross
58°F
11:10p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.75
60°F, wind 4 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
6 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 54 | 🟠 C | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 46 | 0.219 | 91.6 | 12.0% | 32.6% vs RHP | 400 | 19.4% | 33.3% | 22.4% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Valenzuela ⚡ | 39 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 126 | 0.179 | 88.9 | 9.0% | 22.7% vs RHP | 397 | 12.0% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 8 |
| 3 |
|
Daulton Varsho | 38 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌤️ WARM | 133 | 0.160 | 86.0 | 8.1% | 14.6% vs RHP | 386 | 8.8% | 20.0% | 13.4% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 29 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 187 | 0.116 | 86.4 | 3.7% | 16.7% vs RHP | 378 | 6.1% | 16.7% | 8.2% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Ernie Clement | 29 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 189 | 0.137 | 85.6 | 4.8% | 7.4% vs RHP | 374 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 30 |
| 6 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 28 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 190 | 0.135 | 86.3 | 6.0% | 12.5% vs RHP | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 25 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 49 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 65 | 0.285 | 93.4 | 8.2% | 30.0% vs RHP | 398 | 16.7% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 15 |
| 2 |
|
Luke Raley | 43 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 96 | 0.243 | 90.9 | 8.5% | 35.0% vs RHP | 385 | 16.4% | 0.0% | 16.3% | 9 |
| 3 |
|
Colt Emerson ⚡ | 39 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 122 | 0.236 | 87.0 | 5.3% | 45.5% vs RHP | 369 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 18.3% | 19 |
| 4 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 35 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 157 | 0.169 | 90.2 | 6.2% | 18.4% vs RHP | 410 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 32 |
| 5 |
|
Randy Arozarena ⚡ | 32 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 173 | 0.163 | 91.5 | 5.7% | 20.6% vs RHP | 390 | 9.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 20 |
| 6 |
|
Cal Raleigh | 32 | ⚪ D | +390 | · | 175 | 0.142 | 87.7 | 6.9% | 13.5% vs RHP | 391 | 12.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Cole Young | 31 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 180 | 0.147 | 88.2 | 4.8% | 14.0% vs RHP | 390 | 9.6% | 16.7% | 13.2% | 34 |
| 8 |
|
J.P. Crawford ⚡ | 25 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 193 | 0.141 | · | 5.6% | 26.5% vs RHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 32 |
| 9 |
|
Josh Naylor | 25 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 194 | 0.112 | 87.7 | 4.7% | 14.6% vs RHP | 390 | 9.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 35 |