2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs 1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs
TOR
@ 10:10p
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable
Park 0.83× Wind 4 mph slight_out 60°F retractable
+2
7 mph · out
68°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · out
66°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · slight_out
63°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-6
4 mph · slight_out
61°F
10:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
3 mph · cross
58°F
11:10p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.75

60°F, wind 4 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo RHP
1.01 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.23 ·
6 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 54 🟠 C +390 🌤️ WARM 46 0.219 91.6 12.0% 32.6% vs RHP 400 19.4% 33.3% 22.4% 27
2 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Valenzuela 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 126 0.179 88.9 9.0% 22.7% vs RHP 397 12.0% 0.0% 9.8% 8
3 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 38 ⚪ D +425 🌤️ WARM 133 0.160 86.0 8.1% 14.6% vs RHP 386 8.8% 20.0% 13.4% 24
4 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 29 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 187 0.116 86.4 3.7% 16.7% vs RHP 378 6.1% 16.7% 8.2% 33
5 Ernie Clement Ernie Clement 29 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 189 0.137 85.6 4.8% 7.4% vs RHP 374 8.8% 0.0% 6.1% 30
6 Andres Gimenez Andres Gimenez 28 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 190 0.135 86.3 6.0% 12.5% vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 25
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease RHP
0.51 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.20 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 49 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 65 0.285 93.4 8.2% 30.0% vs RHP 398 16.7% 22.2% 26.5% 15
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 43 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 96 0.243 90.9 8.5% 35.0% vs RHP 385 16.4% 0.0% 16.3% 9
3 Colt Emerson Colt Emerson 39 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 122 0.236 87.0 5.3% 45.5% vs RHP 369 18.2% 14.3% 18.3% 19
4 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 35 ⚪ D +500 · 157 0.169 90.2 6.2% 18.4% vs RHP 410 16.4% 8.3% 7.9% 32
5 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 32 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 173 0.163 91.5 5.7% 20.6% vs RHP 390 9.2% 11.1% 7.9% 20
6 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 32 ⚪ D +390 · 175 0.142 87.7 6.9% 13.5% vs RHP 391 12.5% 8.3% 7.5% 22
7 Cole Young Cole Young 31 ⚪ D +850 · 180 0.147 88.2 4.8% 14.0% vs RHP 390 9.6% 16.7% 13.2% 34
8 J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford 25 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 193 0.141 · 5.6% 26.5% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 32
9 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 25 ⚪ D +625 · 194 0.112 87.7 4.7% 14.6% vs RHP 390 9.0% 0.0% 7.0% 35
🏟️
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