STL
@
4:05p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 3:05p
· roof open
Park 1.11×
Wind 4 mph cross
72°F
open
+5
8 mph · slight_out
88°F
3:05p
Boost for HR environment
+8
9 mph · slight_out
90°F
4:05p
Boost for HR environment
+8
8 mph · slight_out
88°F
5:05p
Boost for HR environment
+8
7 mph · slight_out
86°F
6:05p
Boost for HR environment
+8
6 mph · slight_out
85°F
7:05p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.11
72°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +265 | 🌧️ COOL | 13 | 0.232 | 90.8 | 7.9% | 22.9% vs RHP | 392 | 20.7% | 28.6% | 30.8% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 58 | 🟠 C | +320 | · | 23 | 0.233 | 89.8 | 8.9% | 26.9% vs RHP | 402 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 25 |
| 3 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 57 | 🟠 C | +400 | 🔥 HOT | 27 | 0.212 | 89.9 | 7.1% | 21.1% vs RHP | 403 | 15.3% | 35.7% | 27.1% | 39 |
| 4 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 53 | 🟠 C | +390 | · | 50 | 0.192 | 89.4 | 7.0% | 24.4% vs RHP | 407 | 13.6% | 21.4% | 24.8% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Michael Busch | 53 | 🟠 C | +370 | · | 52 | 0.166 | 88.5 | 8.1% | 14.8% vs RHP | 403 | 13.6% | 28.6% | 19.9% | 35 |
| 6 |
|
Alex Bregman | 41 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌧️ COOL | 111 | 0.131 | 87.8 | 5.2% | 15.7% vs RHP | 398 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 37 |
| 7 |
|
Carson Kelly | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 112 | 0.114 | 88.4 | 6.0% | 5.3% vs RHP | 421 | 5.5% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 32 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.097 | 85.5 | 2.3% | 4.1% vs RHP | 383 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 44 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 58 | 🟠 C | +290 | ❄ COLD | 25 | 0.226 | 93.7 | 9.0% | 40.0% vs LHP | 408 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 18.6% | 20 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson ⚡ | 53 | 🟠 C | · | · | 54 | 0.191 | 91.7 | 8.2% | 4.0% vs LHP | 405 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Nathan Church | 46 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 85 | 0.145 | 86.2 | 7.5% | 16.7% vs LHP | 388 | 9.4% | 20.0% | 11.7% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Jj Wetherholt ⚡ | 42 | ⚪ D | +475 | ❄ COLD | 104 | 0.140 | 90.1 | 6.6% | 7.1% vs LHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 35 |
| 5 |
|
Ivan Herrera ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | +390 | 🌧️ COOL | 107 | 0.159 | 89.4 | 6.3% | 31.2% vs LHP | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 27 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 120 | 0.131 | 87.0 | 6.0% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 3 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 35 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 160 | 0.085 | 87.4 | 4.5% | 0.0% vs LHP | 389 | 3.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 29 |