PIT
@
6:45p
WSH
Stadium Conditions
Nationals Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 1.02×
Wind 4 mph cross
79°F
open
-7
14 mph · in
95°F
6:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-15
18 mph · in
91°F
7:45p
Strong suppress for HR environment
-12
15 mph · in
88°F
8:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
85°F
9:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-4
6 mph · in
83°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.13
79°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +245 | 🌧️ COOL | 15 | 0.246 | 95.1 | 11.8% | 33.3% vs RHP | 409 | 26.1% | 15.4% | 24.2% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 53 | 🟠 C | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 49 | 0.238 | 87.8 | 8.2% | 26.7% vs RHP | 400 | 21.3% | 27.3% | 25.5% | 36 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams | 50 | 🟠 C | +370 | · | 62 | 0.231 | 90.0 | 7.8% | 28.3% vs RHP | 390 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 29.0% | 26 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 39 | ⚪ D | +575 | ❄ COLD | 121 | 0.182 | 89.4 | 5.5% | 10.5% vs RHP | 378 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 24 |
| 5 |
|
Jacob Young | 37 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 141 | 0.147 | 88.9 | 6.2% | 18.9% vs RHP | 391 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Daylen Lile | 36 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 148 | 0.151 | 87.4 | 6.2% | 11.0% vs RHP | 403 | 7.6% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 36 |
| 7 |
|
Jorbit Vivas | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 166 | 0.104 | 83.2 | 5.1% | 11.5% vs RHP | 392 | 4.4% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 25 |
| 8 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 21 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 197 | 0.051 | 85.0 | 1.7% | 0.0% vs RHP | 372 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 23 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Brandon Lowe | 57 | 🟠 C | +370 | 🌤️ WARM | 26 | 0.253 | 90.8 | 11.3% | 19.1% vs LHP | 392 | 17.6% | 16.7% | 19.4% | 35 |
| 2 |
|
Bryan Reynolds | 47 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 76 | 0.181 | 91.4 | 9.9% | 26.3% vs LHP | 410 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Ryan O'Hearn | 45 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 87 | 0.180 | 89.7 | 7.9% | 18.8% vs LHP | 382 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 36 |
| 4 |
|
Marcell Ozuna | 41 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 110 | 0.119 | 89.7 | 9.2% | 21.4% vs LHP | 413 | 8.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 9 |
| 5 |
|
Konnor Griffin | 40 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 116 | 0.134 | 87.5 | 8.8% | 10.0% vs LHP | 401 | 7.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% | 17 |
| 6 |
|
Nick Gonzales | 30 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 185 | 0.075 | 85.7 | 5.4% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 5.1% | 16.7% | 7.0% | 29 |
| 7 |
|
Jake Mangum | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 192 | 0.055 | 83.9 | 3.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 410 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 30 |