2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs 1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 3 Dansby Swanson 5 HRs · 4 Manny Machado 5 HRs · 5 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 6 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 9 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 10 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs
PIT
@ 6:45p
WSH
Nationals Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open
Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph cross 79°F open
-7
14 mph · in
95°F
6:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-15
18 mph · in
91°F
7:45p
Strong suppress for HR environment
-12
15 mph · in
88°F
8:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
85°F
9:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-4
6 mph · in
83°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.13

79°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller RHP
0.83 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.26 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 60 🔵 C+ +245 🌧️ COOL 15 0.246 95.1 11.8% 33.3% vs RHP 409 26.1% 15.4% 24.2% 32
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 53 🟠 C +525 🌧️ COOL 49 0.238 87.8 8.2% 26.7% vs RHP 400 21.3% 27.3% 25.5% 36
3 Cj Abrams Cj Abrams 50 🟠 C +370 · 62 0.231 90.0 7.8% 28.3% vs RHP 390 33.3% 0.0% 29.0% 26
4 Keibert Ruiz Keibert Ruiz 39 ⚪ D +575 ❄ COLD 121 0.182 89.4 5.5% 10.5% vs RHP 378 12.5% 0.0% 10.9% 24
5 Jacob Young Jacob Young 37 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 141 0.147 88.9 6.2% 18.9% vs RHP 391 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% 24
6 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 36 ⚪ D +525 ❄ COLD 148 0.151 87.4 6.2% 11.0% vs RHP 403 7.6% 0.0% 9.1% 36
7 Jorbit Vivas Jorbit Vivas 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 166 0.104 83.2 5.1% 11.5% vs RHP 392 4.4% 16.7% 12.9% 25
8 Nasim Nunez Nasim Nunez 21 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 197 0.051 85.0 1.7% 0.0% vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 23
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin LHP
1.40 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.60 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 57 🟠 C +370 🌤️ WARM 26 0.253 90.8 11.3% 19.1% vs LHP 392 17.6% 16.7% 19.4% 35
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 47 ⚪ D +400 🌧️ COOL 76 0.181 91.4 9.9% 26.3% vs LHP 410 12.3% 7.7% 14.4% 30
3 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 45 ⚪ D +700 · 87 0.180 89.7 7.9% 18.8% vs LHP 382 16.1% 8.3% 13.8% 36
4 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 41 ⚪ D +400 🌤️ WARM 110 0.119 89.7 9.2% 21.4% vs LHP 413 8.8% 12.5% 16.7% 9
5 Konnor Griffin Konnor Griffin 40 ⚪ D +500 · 116 0.134 87.5 8.8% 10.0% vs LHP 401 7.0% 20.0% 10.3% 17
6 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 30 ⚪ D +700 · 185 0.075 85.7 5.4% 0.0% vs LHP 403 5.1% 16.7% 7.0% 29
7 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 26 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 192 0.055 83.9 3.6% 0.0% vs LHP 410 2.3% 0.0% 7.0% 30
🏟️
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