MIL
@
9:45p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 6:45p
· roof retractable
Park 0.93×
Wind 4 mph slight_out
79°F
retractable
+0
10 mph · cross
98°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
10 mph · cross
96°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
9 mph · slight_out
94°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · slight_out
92°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
7 mph · slight_out
91°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.03
79°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jake Bauers | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | · | 14 | 0.265 | 92.4 | 11.1% | 37.2% vs RHP | 403 | 19.7% | 18.2% | 30.7% | 20 |
| 2 |
|
Jackson Chourio | 56 | 🟠 C | +390 | 🌧️ COOL | 33 | 0.239 | 92.4 | 11.6% | 19.6% vs RHP | 398 | 19.6% | 15.4% | 17.0% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Garrett Mitchell ⚡ | 49 | ⚪ D | +575 | · | 66 | 0.174 | 92.8 | 11.5% | 27.3% vs RHP | 420 | 9.5% | 18.2% | 11.8% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Brice Turang | 47 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 77 | 0.193 | 91.0 | 9.2% | 28.6% vs RHP | 407 | 11.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
William Contreras | 45 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 88 | 0.150 | 90.3 | 8.5% | 20.0% vs RHP | 419 | 11.5% | 25.0% | 16.5% | 35 |
| 6 |
|
Christian Yelich | 38 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 137 | 0.129 | 88.8 | 8.1% | 13.0% vs RHP | 399 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
David Hamilton | 33 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 168 | 0.104 | 86.5 | 6.2% | 7.0% vs RHP | 383 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 14 |
| 8 |
|
Sal Frelick | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 184 | 0.096 | 86.0 | 4.7% | 5.9% vs RHP | 402 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 28 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ketel Marte | 54 | 🟠 C | +305 | 🌤️ WARM | 44 | 0.220 | 91.5 | 8.8% | 36.8% vs LHP | 413 | 17.6% | 46.2% | 28.4% | 42 |
| 2 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 48 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌧️ COOL | 71 | 0.240 | 91.6 | 9.1% | 13.6% vs LHP | 406 | 15.2% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 39 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 124 | 0.180 | 89.9 | 7.7% | 20.0% vs LHP | 395 | 9.8% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado | 37 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 142 | 0.160 | 85.3 | 6.7% | 18.8% vs LHP | 400 | 10.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas ⚡ | 33 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 167 | 0.156 | 86.7 | 5.2% | 29.4% vs LHP | 399 | 6.6% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 18 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 179 | 0.109 | 89.4 | 6.4% | 0.0% vs LHP | 396 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 16 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 29 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 188 | 0.113 | 87.1 | 4.7% | 7.1% vs LHP | 388 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 37 |