Today · 2026-07-01

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#2 Byron Buxton vs Tatsuya Imai FIP 6.66 HR/FB 25.0% #6 Miguel Vargas vs Dean Kremer FIP 5.47 HR/FB 36.4%

📦 STACK Paul Skenes FIP 2.51 HR/FB 13.9% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #9 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Max Meyer FIP 3.19 HR/FB 16.2% → #4 Hunter Goodman, #14 Mickey Moniak

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-06-30. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.7% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	83	-12.5	●	Paul Skenes (RHP) PIT @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%19.9% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle37.0° Distance408 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○●○○	0.7×	·	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.73 FIP3.89 IP159.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+37 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.4°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +2
2	Byron Buxton (R)	75	·	●	Tatsuya Imai (RHP) MIN @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%18.5% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	2.5×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.09 FIP4.73 IP149.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-15 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88.8°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +2
3	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁴	74	-13.1	●	Taj Bradley (RHP) MIN @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%19.1% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffJoe Ryan Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle37.0° Distance395 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.77 FIP4.30 IP140.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-11 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88.8°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +2
4	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁴	73	-11.0	●	Max Meyer (RHP) MIA @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%17.3% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffMichael Petersen Exit Velo107.0 mph Angle37.0° Distance442 ft StadiumCoors Field	●●○●○	0.3×	1	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB8.0% HR/90.57 FIP3.51 IP142.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-75 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.9°F Wind3 mph ESE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-75 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +0
5	Ben Rice (L)	76	-10.9	●	DET Bullpen Proxy DET @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	23	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo102.3 mph Angle28.0° Distance395 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○●	0.0×	·	DET Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.3% HR/90.95 FIP3.82 IP151.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+34 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.9°F Wind4 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2
6	Miguel Vargas (R) ³	71	-6.5	●	Dean Kremer CWS @ BAL · Camden Yards	12:35p	🟡 B	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffLuinder Avila Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance407 ft StadiumRate Field	●○●○○	0.4×	·	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/90.87 FIP3.49 IP144.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+4 Weather · Camden Yards hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90.9°F Wind2.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note91°F, wind 2 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +3
7	James Wood (L) ²	70	-9.5	●	Payton Tolle (LHP) WSH @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%23.0% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffRanger Suarez Exit Velo113.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance441 ft StadiumFenway Park	○○○●○	0.3×	·	BOS Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.1% HR/91.15 FIP4.22 IP140.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+51 Weather · Fenway Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85.1°F Wind5.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+51 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +2
8	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁴	69	-17.4	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) LAD @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%16.5% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffMatt Krook Exit Velo112.3 mph Angle25.0° Distance432 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	ATH Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.79 FIP3.87 IP136.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
9	Bryce Harper (L) ³	68	-7.5	●	Paul Skenes (RHP) PIT @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance405 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○●○●○	0.2×	1	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.73 FIP3.89 IP159.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+37 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.4°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +2
10	Kazuma Okamoto (R) ²	67	-6.4	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) NYM @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffJakob Junis Exit Velo99.9 mph Angle35.0° Distance378 ft StadiumRogers Centre	●●○○○	1.5×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.4% HR/90.98 FIP3.61 IP156.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	Dillon Dingler (R) ³	66	-4.7	●	Will Warren (RHP) DET @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffEnyel De Los Santos Exit Velo103.3 mph Angle31.0° Distance432 ft StadiumComerica Park	●○○○○	1.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/90.84 FIP3.55 IP139.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.9°F Wind4 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2
12	Pete Alonso (R) ⁴	66	-9.0	●	Noah Schultz CWS @ BAL · Camden Yards	12:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffZack Littell Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CWS Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.02 FIP4.46 IP123.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+4 Weather · Camden Yards hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90.9°F Wind2.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note91°F, wind 2 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +3
13	Brandon Lowe (L)	66	-9.7	●	Zack Wheeler (RHP) PIT @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChase Burns Exit Velo107.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance396 ft StadiumPNC Park	●○●○○	0.4×	·	PHI Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.79 FIP3.32 IP137.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+37 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.4°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +2
14	Mickey Moniak (L) ³	65	-5.9	●	Max Meyer (RHP) MIA @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	49d Last HR · 2026-05-13 OffMitch Keller Exit Velo103.4 mph Angle31.0° Distance372 ft StadiumPNC Park	○○○○○	4.2×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB8.0% HR/90.57 FIP3.51 IP142.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-81 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.9°F Wind3 mph ESE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-81 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +0
15	Junior Caminero (R) ³	64	-16.3	●	Seth Lugo (RHP) TB @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	23	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffNoah Cameron Exit Velo108.6 mph Angle29.0° Distance438 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	●●●●●	0.0×	1	KC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.2% HR/91.18 FIP4.62 IP130.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+29 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84.5°F Wind4 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note84°F, wind 4 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1
16	Kerry Carpenter (L) ³	64	-10.3	●	Will Warren (RHP) DET @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo102.9 mph Angle28.0° Distance410 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●●○●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/90.84 FIP3.55 IP139.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.9°F Wind4 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2
17	Jake Bauers (L) ³	63	·	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) CIN @ MIL · American Family Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo106.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance425 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CIN Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.13 FIP4.87 IP167.1 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-24 Weather · American Family Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87.2°F Wind5.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (in) — modifier: +2
18	Francisco Alvarez (R)	63	-1.0	●	Braydon Fisher (RHP) NYM @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	9	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%17.8% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffKevin Gausman Exit Velo105.2 mph Angle31.0° Distance415 ft StadiumRogers Centre	●○○○●	0.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.53 FIP2.77 IP152.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
19	Sal Stewart (R)	62	-7.9	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) CIN @ MIL · American Family Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%14.8% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffBrandon Sproat Exit Velo107.3 mph Angle19.0° Distance382 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○●○○●	0.0×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.56 FIP3.17 IP145.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-30 Weather · American Family Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87.2°F Wind5.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-30 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (in) — modifier: +2
20	Juan Soto (L) ⁴	62	-8.4	●	Braydon Fisher (RHP) NYM @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-18 OffAaron Nola Exit Velo105.0 mph Angle42.0° Distance389 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	3.7×	·	TOR Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.53 FIP2.77 IP152.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
21	Elly De La Cruz (S) ²	62	-5.0	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) CIN @ MIL · American Family Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%14.0% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffRobert Gasser Exit Velo102.5 mph Angle34.0° Distance412 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○●○	0.2×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.56 FIP3.17 IP145.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-27 Weather · American Family Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87.2°F Wind5.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (in) — modifier: +2
22	Matt Olson (L) ³	62	-9.3	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) STL @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	19d Last HR · 2026-06-12 OffCionel Pérez Exit Velo102.1 mph Angle22.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	4.0×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/90.95 FIP4.30 IP152.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+8 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88.7°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+8 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2
23	Max Muncy (S) ⁴	62	·	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) LAD @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls52 BBE Barrel%14.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○●○	0.3×	·	ATH Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.79 FIP3.87 IP136.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
24	Owen Caissie (L) ⁴	62	·	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) MIA @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%15.6% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffJohn Brebbia Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance453 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.7% HR/91.18 FIP4.24 IP167.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-81 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.9°F Wind3 mph ESE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-81 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +0
25	Shea Langeliers (R)	65	-11.9	●	LAD Bullpen Proxy LAD @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-18 OffRyan Johnson Exit Velo103.8 mph Angle30.0° Distance430 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	2.5×	·	LAD Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB8.9% HR/90.57 FIP2.87 IP110.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
26	Nick Kurtz (L)	65	-11.9	●	LAD Bullpen Proxy LAD @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%18.4% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	LAD Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB8.9% HR/90.57 FIP2.87 IP110.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
27	Ty France (R) ³	60	-5.6	●	Colin Rea (RHP) SD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	10	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffRoki Sasaki Exit Velo98.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance372 ft StadiumPetco Park	●●○○○	0.6×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB18.3% HR/91.14 FIP4.28 IP118.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+11 Weather · Wrigley Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp89.0°F Wind8.0 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
28	Jordan Walker (R) ³	60	-6.4	●	Reynaldo López (RHP) STL @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	18d Last HR · 2026-06-13 OffJustin Lawrence Exit Velo116.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance454 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	4.7×	·	ATL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.6% HR/90.76 FIP3.24 IP129.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+4 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88.7°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2
29	Ian Happ (S) ³	60	-9.9	●	Walker Buehler (RHP) SD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%13.9% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○●○○○	0.8×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/90.60 FIP3.09 IP166.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Wrigley Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp89.0°F Wind8.0 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note89°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
30	Spencer Steer (R) ²	59	-2.8	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) CIN @ MIL · American Family Field	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffCraig Yoho Exit Velo103.5 mph Angle27.0° Distance400 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○●○○○	0.8×	1	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.56 FIP3.17 IP145.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-30 Weather · American Family Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87.2°F Wind5.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-30 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (in) — modifier: +2

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.7%

▲ +4.3 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 14.6% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-06-30

32 HRs

43%

14 caught / 32 HRs

in top 50

#6 Colson Montgomery

37.8%

🟡

#9 Ben Rice

34.4%

🔵

#12 Yordan Alvarez

18.5%

🔵

#16 Jake Bauers

21.1%

🔵

#19 Owen Caissie

29.3%

🔵

#21 Junior Caminero

30.2%

🔵

#26 Jackson Chourio

16.2%

🔵

#31 Pete Crow-Armstrong

23.8%

🔵

#32 Sal Stewart

20.5%

🔵

#41 Kerry Carpenter

27.8%

🟠

#44 Joc Pederson

27.4%

🟠

#45 Francisco Alvarez

25.9%

🟠

#46 CJ Abrams

24.6%

🟠

#50 Manny Machado

25.1%

🟠

Missed

Rafael Devers Carter Jensen Spencer Torkelson Dansby Swanson Michael Busch +13 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Junior Caminero ×5 Joc Pederson ×4 Bryce Harper ×3 Hunter Goodman ×3 Esmerlyn Valdez ×2

❄️ Cold

Juan Soto 0 of 7d Nick Kurtz 0 of 6d James Wood 0 of 6d Shea Langeliers 0 of 6d Jac Caglianone 0 of 5d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.1%

B 20.0%

C+ 16.0%

C 13.2%

D 8.5%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-01

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.