SF
@
9:40p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 6:40p
· roof retractable
Park 0.93×
Wind 2 mph out
77°F
retractable
-3
13 mph · cross
97°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-6
15 mph · cross
94°F
7:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-6
13 mph · cross
91°F
8:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-6
11 mph · cross
89°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
8 mph · cross
87°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.93
77°F, wind 2 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Rafael Devers | 58 | 🟠 C | +350 | 🌤️ WARM | 34 | 0.207 | 92.1 | 11.0% | 22.4% vs RHP | 400 | 15.5% | 28.6% | 21.8% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Casey Schmitt | 55 | 🟠 C | +425 | 🌤️ WARM | 46 | 0.215 | 89.7 | 11.7% | 21.0% vs RHP | 394 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 15.2% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Willy Adames | 55 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 49 | 0.202 | 88.4 | 10.0% | 19.6% vs RHP | 389 | 14.8% | 21.4% | 22.8% | 25 |
| 4 |
|
Heliot Ramos | 52 | 🟠 C | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 63 | 0.169 | 92.0 | 12.1% | 13.6% vs RHP | 402 | 10.4% | 33.3% | 18.4% | 9 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Chapman | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 122 | 0.146 | 88.3 | 8.4% | 16.2% vs RHP | 398 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Jung Hoo Lee | 38 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 152 | 0.146 | 87.5 | 5.4% | 10.0% vs RHP | 378 | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 39 |
| 7 |
|
Drew Gilbert | 35 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 171 | 0.123 | 85.6 | 4.9% | 13.0% vs RHP | 393 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 23 |
| 8 |
|
Luis Arraez ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 193 | 0.122 | 87.3 | 1.8% | 2.7% vs RHP | 357 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 38 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ketel Marte ⚡ | 56 | 🟠 C | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 44 | 0.214 | 91.6 | 7.5% | 14.3% vs RHP | 412 | 17.9% | 46.2% | 24.7% | 43 |
| 2 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 51 | 🟠 C | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 74 | 0.247 | 91.5 | 7.8% | 24.4% vs RHP | 406 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 19.0% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Gabriel Moreno ⚡ | 40 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 140 | 0.186 | 90.2 | 6.6% | 17.1% vs RHP | 395 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 38 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 153 | 0.165 | 85.1 | 5.8% | 15.0% vs RHP | 400 | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 177 | 0.156 | 86.7 | 4.5% | 10.7% vs RHP | 399 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 20 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 179 | 0.111 | 89.4 | 5.5% | 15.4% vs RHP | 396 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 14 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 31 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 191 | 0.115 | 87.1 | 4.1% | 10.0% vs RHP | 388 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 36 |