STL
@
7:15p
ATL
Stadium Conditions
Truist Park
First pitch 7:15p
· roof open
Park 0.93×
Wind 3 mph cross
76°F
open
+6
6 mph · out
89°F
7:15p
Boost for HR environment
+5
6 mph · out
86°F
8:15p
Boost for HR environment
+1
6 mph · slight_out
82°F
9:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-5
6 mph · cross
79°F
10:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-7
5 mph · in
76°F
11:15p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.93
76°F, wind 3 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 56 | 🟠 C | +305 | ❄ COLD | 40 | 0.266 | 92.8 | 10.9% | 29.8% vs RHP | 409 | 20.5% | 0.0% | 17.1% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin ⚡ | 52 | 🟠 C | +390 | ❄ COLD | 66 | 0.207 | 91.5 | 12.3% | 29.2% vs RHP | 407 | 19.4% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 24 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 41 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 130 | 0.150 | 90.9 | 9.4% | 13.5% vs RHP | 409 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 27 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 38 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 148 | 0.157 | 87.1 | 5.9% | 10.9% vs RHP | 383 | 12.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 42 |
| 5 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 38 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 155 | 0.140 | 90.7 | 6.1% | 15.4% vs RHP | 374 | 7.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 16 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith | 37 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 159 | 0.135 | 87.9 | 7.9% | 14.3% vs RHP | 390 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 18 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 34 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.149 | 86.6 | 6.9% | 13.9% vs RHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 42 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 52 | 🟠 C | +330 | ❄ COLD | 64 | 0.231 | 93.7 | 9.3% | 30.2% vs RHP | 408 | 17.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson | 47 | ⚪ D | +370 | 🌧️ COOL | 92 | 0.195 | 91.9 | 8.5% | 22.2% vs RHP | 405 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Nathan Church ⚡ | 38 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 156 | 0.134 | 86.2 | 7.5% | 21.7% vs RHP | 387 | 7.8% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 37 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 157 | 0.161 | 89.5 | 6.6% | 18.8% vs RHP | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Jj Wetherholt ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | +475 | ❄ COLD | 162 | 0.143 | 90.2 | 6.7% | 18.9% vs RHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages ⚡ | 34 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 175 | 0.131 | 87.0 | 6.1% | 20.0% vs RHP | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 30 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 192 | 0.087 | 87.5 | 4.6% | 11.5% vs RHP | 389 | 3.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 34 |