SD
@
2:20p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 1:20p
· roof open
Park 1.01×
Wind 3 mph cross
81°F
open
+2
13 mph · slight_out
90°F
1:20p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
13 mph · slight_out
91°F
2:20p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
14 mph · slight_out
92°F
3:20p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
14 mph · slight_out
92°F
4:20p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
14 mph · cross
91°F
5:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.11
81°F, wind 3 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ty France | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +390 | · | 23 | 0.229 | 91.1 | 11.3% | 38.1% vs RHP | 393 | 17.9% | 27.3% | 31.8% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Manny Machado | 58 | 🟠 C | +245 | 🌤️ WARM | 33 | 0.198 | 89.9 | 10.3% | 28.6% vs RHP | 397 | 19.2% | 33.3% | 25.2% | 35 |
| 3 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 56 | 🟠 C | +370 | 🌤️ WARM | 41 | 0.223 | 89.2 | 9.5% | 34.2% vs RHP | 396 | 14.1% | 25.0% | 27.5% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 46 | ⚪ D | +305 | ❄ COLD | 100 | 0.133 | 89.8 | 10.1% | 12.2% vs RHP | 407 | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 136 | 0.155 | 88.1 | 7.1% | 16.7% vs RHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 19 |
| 6 |
|
Xander Bogaerts ⚡ | 40 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 139 | 0.107 | 88.0 | 7.9% | 18.4% vs RHP | 395 | 9.2% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 33 |
| 7 |
|
Freddy Fermin ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 163 | 0.104 | 86.2 | 5.5% | 4.0% vs RHP | 382 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 11 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 57 | 🟠 C | +255 | 🌧️ COOL | 37 | 0.220 | 90.9 | 9.4% | 22.0% vs RHP | 393 | 19.8% | 28.6% | 24.3% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 57 | 🟠 C | +330 | · | 39 | 0.235 | 90.0 | 10.7% | 28.0% vs RHP | 402 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 16.4% | 27 |
| 3 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 49 | ⚪ D | +370 | 🔥 HOT | 82 | 0.165 | 89.5 | 7.5% | 15.2% vs RHP | 397 | 14.3% | 35.7% | 19.6% | 38 |
| 4 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 48 | ⚪ D | +305 | 🌧️ COOL | 84 | 0.183 | 89.5 | 8.2% | 25.0% vs RHP | 405 | 12.3% | 14.3% | 16.7% | 35 |
| 5 |
|
Michael Busch | 47 | ⚪ D | +330 | 🌧️ COOL | 95 | 0.152 | 88.4 | 9.3% | 13.8% vs RHP | 400 | 12.6% | 21.4% | 10.4% | 35 |
| 6 |
|
Carson Kelly | 38 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 151 | 0.116 | 88.4 | 7.2% | 5.3% vs RHP | 421 | 5.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Alex Bregman | 37 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 160 | 0.125 | 87.7 | 6.0% | 16.3% vs RHP | 395 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 34 |
| 8 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 195 | 0.099 | 85.5 | 2.9% | 4.3% vs RHP | 383 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 47 |