WSH
@
1:35p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 1:35p
· roof open
Park 0.95×
Wind 5 mph out
72°F
open
+9
10 mph · out
87°F
1:35p
Boost for HR environment
+10
10 mph · out
89°F
2:35p
Boost for HR environment
+10
10 mph · out
92°F
3:35p
Boost for HR environment
+10
10 mph · out
95°F
4:35p
Boost for HR environment
+10
10 mph · out
95°F
5:35p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.95
72°F, wind 5 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 57 | 🟠 C | +280 | 🌧️ COOL | 38 | 0.241 | 95.2 | 11.9% | 29.4% vs LHP | 410 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 52 | 🟠 C | +370 | 🌧️ COOL | 62 | 0.239 | 88.0 | 8.3% | 21.4% vs LHP | 400 | 21.7% | 27.3% | 21.5% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams ⚡ | 47 | ⚪ D | +475 | · | 86 | 0.225 | 90.1 | 7.8% | 16.7% vs LHP | 389 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.3% | 29 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 38 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 147 | 0.179 | 89.2 | 5.7% | 18.2% vs LHP | 378 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 27 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 35 | ⚪ D | +750 | ❄ COLD | 170 | 0.152 | 87.2 | 6.5% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 35 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 172 | 0.141 | 88.8 | 6.3% | 5.6% vs LHP | 391 | 8.5% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 14 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 200 | 0.040 | 84.9 | · | 0.0% vs LHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 25 |
4 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 51 | 🟠 C | +370 | · | 73 | 0.240 | 90.2 | 8.3% | 27.8% vs LHP | 404 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 20.5% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 41 | ⚪ D | +400 | · | 128 | 0.170 | 90.0 | 7.5% | 9.5% vs LHP | 402 | 12.5% | 15.4% | 9.7% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 35 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 166 | 0.154 | 84.9 | 3.7% | 7.7% vs LHP | 375 | 7.9% | 30.8% | 13.9% | 36 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 34 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 178 | 0.164 | 86.1 | 5.1% | 11.1% vs LHP | 370 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 46 |