Today · 2026-08-13

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 6 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Jake Bauers vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.03 HR/FB 23.8% #5 Pro pick vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.03 HR/FB 28.9% #9 Pro pick vs Max Scherzer FIP 6.99 HR/FB 36.4% #10 Pro pick vs Max Scherzer FIP 6.99 HR/FB 25.9% #14 Pro pick vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.2 HR/FB 24.7% #15 Pro pick vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.2 HR/FB 30.8%

📦 STACK Roki Sasaki FIP 5.03 HR/FB 23.8% → #1 Jake Bauers, #5 Pro pick

📦 STACK Andrew Abbott FIP 4.77 HR/FB 12.1% → #2 Munetaka Murakami, #8 Pro pick, #13 Pro pick

📦 STACK Taj Bradley FIP 3.9 HR/FB 18.5% → #3 Kyle Schwarber, #12 Pro pick

📦 STACK Max Scherzer FIP 6.99 HR/FB 36.4% → #9 Pro pick, #10 Pro pick

📦 STACK Aaron Nola FIP 5.2 HR/FB 24.7% → #14 Pro pick, #15 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-08-12. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Munetaka Murakami (L) ³	69	-5.9	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) CIN @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-08-08 OffGavin Williams Exit Velo101.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance347 ft StadiumRate Field	●●○○○	1.0×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.75 IP1016.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteUnknown stadium
2	Jake Bauers (L) ³	68	-4.3	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-08-09 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo103.8 mph Angle26.0° Distance384 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○●○○○	0.8×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.27 FIP4.17 IP1070.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	67	-14.7	●	Taj Bradley (RHP) PHI @ MIN · Field of Dreams	7:30p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	35	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV93.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-08-09 OffShane Bieber Exit Velo107.7 mph Angle28.0° Distance448 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.16 FIP4.34 IP1043.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Field of Dreams Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 34 HR NoteUnknown stadium
4	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	67	-9.1	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-08-11 OffJake Irvin Exit Velo111.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance437 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.85 IP1056.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+4 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Ben Rice (L) ²	66	-9.9	●	Logan Gilbert (RHP) SEA @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	32	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-08-08 OffDanny Young Exit Velo105.2 mph Angle35.0° Distance431 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●○○○	1.0×	·	SEA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.11 FIP3.79 IP1039.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+50 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp83°F Wind12 mph NW Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 31 HR Note83°F, wind 12 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (L)	65	-11.4	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.04 FIP3.62 IP1045.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (R)	64	-7.5	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.27 FIP4.17 IP1070.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (R)	64	-8.4	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) BOS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP3.91 IP1010.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+1 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72°F Wind1 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note72°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (R)	63	-6.9	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) CIN @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.75 IP1016.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	Pro pick (L)	63	-8.4	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) PHI @ MIN · Field of Dreams	7:30p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.23 FIP3.84 IP1040.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Field of Dreams Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
11	Pro pick (L)	62	-10.7	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) BOS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP3.91 IP1010.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-1 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72°F Wind1 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note72°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (L)	62	-9.0	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.50 FIP4.68 IP965.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-4 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (L)	61	-6.5	●	Taj Bradley (RHP) PHI @ MIN · Field of Dreams	7:30p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.16 FIP4.34 IP1043.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Field of Dreams Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteUnknown stadium
14	Pro pick (L)	59	-6.9	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) CIN @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.75 IP1016.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteUnknown stadium
15	Pro pick (S)	59	-4.2	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.85 IP1056.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-6 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (R)	57	-7.3	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) PHI @ MIN · Field of Dreams	7:30p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.23 FIP3.84 IP1040.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Field of Dreams Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR NoteUnknown stadium
17	Pro pick (L)	57	·	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.04 FIP3.62 IP1045.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (R)	57	-7.1	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.85 IP1056.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-16 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (R)	55	-7.6	●	Davis Martin (RHP) CIN @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.08 FIP4.19 IP1025.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteUnknown stadium
20	Pro pick (S)	55	-7.8	●	Davis Martin (RHP) CIN @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV93.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.08 FIP4.19 IP1025.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
21	Pro pick (S)	54	-7.9	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) PHI @ MIN · Field of Dreams	7:30p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.23 FIP3.84 IP1040.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Field of Dreams Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR NoteUnknown stadium
22	Pro pick (R)	54	-6.9	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.50 FIP4.68 IP965.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-17 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (R)	53	-5.5	●	Parker Messick (LHP) CLE @ DET · Comerica Park	1:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%7.9% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP1045.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind3 mph S Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note79°F, wind 3 mph S (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (L)	53	-9.8	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) PIT @ MIA · loanDepot Park	1:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.04 FIP4.03 IP1063.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-31 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93°F Wind10 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-31 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note93°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L)	53	-4.3	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.27 FIP4.17 IP1070.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (L)	53	-4.3	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) CHC @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.85 IP1056.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-4 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind6 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L)	52	-12.7	●	Walbert Ureña (RHP) TEX @ LAA · Angel Stadium	10:07p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.13 FIP4.40 IP1054.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+38 Weather · Angel Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind8 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+38 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note74°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (R)	52	-0.8	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) BOS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls46 BBE Barrel%7.4% Avg EV86.7 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP3.91 IP1010.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+1 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72°F Wind1 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note72°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (L)	52	-8.4	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) BOS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP3.91 IP1010.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-1 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72°F Wind1 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note72°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (L)	52	-4.6	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) MIL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.27 FIP4.17 IP1070.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 7 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

14.3%

▲ +2.8 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 12.9% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-08-12

29 HRs

20%

6 caught / 29 HRs

in top 50

#13 Shohei Ohtani

25.1%

🔵

#26 Corbin Carroll

14.0%

🟠

#28 Dominic Canzone

18.7%

🟠

#29 Willson Contreras

16.3%

🟠

#45 Griffin Conine

29.4%

🟠

#49 Zack Gelof

21.6%

🟠

Missed

Austin Riley Julio Rodríguez Trent Grisham Gary Sánchez Liam Hicks +18 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Matt Olson ×4 Elly De La Cruz ×2 Corbin Carroll ×2 Francisco Lindor ×2 Griffin Conine ×2

❄️ Cold

Max Muncy 0 of 10d Esmerlyn Valdez 0 of 5d Mickey Moniak 0 of 5d Wilyer Abreu 0 of 5d Francisco Alvarez 0 of 4d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 19.9%

C+ 16.9%

C 13.4%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-08-13

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.