TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.00×

PHI @ MIN

Field of Dreams · 7:30p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 24 · vs Nola ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 29 · vs Bradley → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 94

2.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +390 C ●●●●○

2 Josh Bell +400 C ●●●●○

3 Trevor Larnach +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 83

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Schwarber +225 C+ ●●●○○

3 Trea Turner +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Bradley Edge +390 0.243 · 90.2 · 10.2% 25.0% 33.2% F B O C+ 61

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Nola +390 0.185 · 90.2 · 11.1% 25.0% 24.0% F B O C 58

· MIN Josh Bell vs Nola Edge +400 0.173 · 89.9 · 9.8% 27.3% 20.7% F B O C 54

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Nola Edge +500 0.162 · 87.3 · 8.7% 25.0% 19.2% F B O C 50

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Bradley Edge +225 0.285 · 93.1 · 12.5% 8.3% 35.5% F B O C+ 67

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Nola Edge +330 0.232 · 92.4 · 10.6% 18.2% 21.4% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Nola Edge +575 0.178 · 87.7 · 6.1% 18.2% 15.7% F B O D 48

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Nola +750 0.096 · 84.6 · 5.6% 18.2% 11.3% F B O D 37

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Bradley +525 0.151 · 88.5 · 7.6% 18.2% 9.8% F B O D 44

· MIN Austin Martin vs Nola — 0.090 · 86.9 · 4.7% 14.3% 8.1% F B O D 35

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Bradley Edge +525 0.162 · 89.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.110 · 89.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Bradley Edge +625 0.154 · 89.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 41

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Bradley +575 0.128 · — · 6.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Bradley +700 0.131 · 90.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford HOT vs Bradley Edge — 0.089 · 87.0 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.8% ← leak OFF 19.8% BRK 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.8% 28.6% 15.2% 17.6% C+ 67 +225

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.5% 6.2% 14.7% 11.6% C+ 61 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.4% 2.1% 13.8% 8.4% D 44 +525

Trea Turner R

8.3% 2.5% 4.8% 6.5% D 44 +525

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.3% 5.1% 4.2% 6.5% D 41 +625

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 8.8% 5.7% 5.2% D 38 +700

101

J.T. Realmuto R

3.9% 5.0% 7.1% 4.8% D 33 +575

115

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.3% ← leak BRK 33.5% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.9% 19.4% 10.4% 11.5% C+ 63 +330

Royce Lewis R

15.4% 7.8% 8.3% 12.5% C 58 +390

Josh Bell S Edge

11.4% 12.9% 5.6% 10.4% C 54 +400

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.5% 9.1% 5.6% 7.6% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 0.0% 1.2% 3.7% D 48 +575

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.4% 11.8% 6.1% 6.5% D 38 —

Luke Keaschall R

4.3% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 37 +750

Austin Martin R

3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.3% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Lee Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Bryce Harper +390 · 61

Royce Lewis +390 · 58

Josh Bell +400 · 54

Trevor Larnach +500 · 50

Stadium conditions

Field of Dreams

First pitch 7:30p · roof unknown

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.00× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 67 C+ +225 · 3 0.285 93.1 12.5% 43.4%vs RHP 404 22.5% 8.3% 35.5% 22

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ +390 · 13 0.243 90.2 10.2% 36.2%vs RHP 403 19.8% 25.0% 33.2% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 44 D +525 COOL 55 0.162 89.7 8.7% 19.7%vs RHP 393 11.9% 0.0% 11.1% 39

4 Trea Turner 44 D +525 COOL 56 0.151 88.5 7.6% 21.5%vs RHP 392 14.2% 18.2% 9.8% 40

5 Bryson Stott 41 D +625 WARM 74 0.154 89.7 7.6% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.2% 0.0% 9.1% 34

6 Alec Bohm 38 D +700 · 88 0.131 90.5 6.7% 14.6%vs RHP 396 10.8% 0.0% 7.7% 39

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D +575 WARM 101 0.128 — 6.6% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 27

8 Justin Crawford 29 D — HOT 115 0.089 87.0 3.7% 4.7%vs RHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 7.2% 33

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 63 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.232 92.4 10.6% 19.0%vs RHP 391 17.3% 18.2% 21.4% 32

2 Royce Lewis 58 C +390 · 16 0.185 90.2 11.1% 18.0%vs RHP 400 16.9% 25.0% 24.0% 34

3 Josh Bell 54 C +400 WARM 21 0.173 89.9 9.8% 19.0%vs RHP 405 11.8% 27.3% 20.7% 37

4 Trevor Larnach 50 C +500 · 37 0.162 87.3 8.7% 16.1%vs RHP 397 9.7% 25.0% 19.2% 24

5 Brooks Lee 48 D +575 · 43 0.178 87.7 6.1% 20.0%vs RHP 371 14.7% 18.2% 15.7% 34

6 Victor Caratini 38 D — COOL 84 0.110 89.5 8.0% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 11

7 Luke Keaschall 37 D +750 WARM 90 0.096 84.6 5.6% 9.2%vs RHP 373 5.9% 18.2% 11.3% 32

8 Austin Martin 35 D — WARM 96 0.090 86.9 4.7% 3.9%vs RHP 392 3.1% 14.3% 8.1% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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