TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ DET

Playable air · 1.06×

CLE @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

+2 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +2

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 32 · vs Montero ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 34 · vs Messick → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 83

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins — D ●●●●●

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 82

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +750 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Messick Edge +500 0.250 · 89.0 · 7.9% 40.0% 27.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Montero — 0.203 · 89.2 · 9.9% 40.0% 23.4% F B O D 49

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Messick +750 0.142 · 87.8 · 6.1% 40.0% 12.3% F B O D 36

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Messick Edge +700 0.126 · 86.0 · 6.4% 20.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Montero Edge — 0.063 · 83.6 · 1.5% 11.1% 6.1% F B O D 19

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Montero Edge +500 0.162 · 91.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 36

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Montero Edge +525 0.191 · 87.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 37

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Messick Edge +400 0.196 · 89.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Montero Edge +700 0.143 · 88.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Montero Edge +500 0.148 · 89.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Messick — 0.145 · 88.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Montero Edge +750 0.117 · 86.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Messick — 0.108 · 85.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Rhys Hoskins R

11.3% 17.5% 13.3% 13.0% D 49 —

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.7% 14.9% 3.2% 8.5% D 37 +525

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.6% 6.9% 1.6% 6.8% D 36 +500

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 4.1% D 34 +700

103

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 32 +500

113

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.1% 4.5% 1.1% 3.5% D 29 +750

126

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.9% ← leak OFF 23.9% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

13.1% 7.0% 9.2% 11.4% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.6% 13.6% 11.8% 13.2% D 42 +400

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.1% 1.7% 6.8% 6.8% D 36 +750

102

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.5% 0.0% 4.4% 7.4% D 33 +700

104

Colt Keith L

6.8% 3.3% 14.0% 7.2% D 32 —

124

Zach Mckinstry L

3.5% 0.0% 1.7% 2.5% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.9% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Dingler Mcgonigle Torres

Legend

attack side — vs Montero fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +500 · 53

Rhys Hoskins — · 49

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph in 79°F open

-3

↑

3 mph · in

75°F

1:10p

-1

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

2:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

79°F

3:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 79°F, wind 3 mph S (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 49 D — HOT 39 0.203 89.2 9.9% 22.6%vs RHP 389 14.8% 40.0% 23.4% 12

2 Angel Martinez 37 D +525 WARM 89 0.191 87.9 8.1% 27.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 24

3 Chase Delauter 36 D +500 WARM 91 0.162 91.2 6.9% 24.5%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 33

4 Travis Bazzana 34 D +700 · 98 0.143 88.4 5.9% 18.4%vs RHP 396 10.7% 0.0% 8.4% 23

5 Jose Ramirez 32 D +500 COOL 103 0.148 89.3 6.4% 10.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 25

6 Brayan Rocchio 29 D +750 WARM 113 0.117 86.4 5.1% 11.5%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 7.0% 29

7 Steven Kwan 19 D — COOL 126 0.063 83.6 1.5% 3.2%vs RHP 372 1.9% 11.1% 6.1% 31

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 53 C +500 COOL 23 0.250 89.0 7.9% 20.0%vs LHP 398 20.9% 40.0% 27.2% 36

2 Spencer Torkelson 42 D +400 COOL 63 0.196 89.5 8.5% 10.0%vs LHP 394 15.7% 0.0% 11.2% 32

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +750 COOL 94 0.142 87.8 6.1% 8.6%vs LHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 12.3% 36

4 Gleyber Torres 33 D +700 COOL 102 0.126 86.0 6.4% 8.3%vs LHP 389 9.6% 20.0% 9.3% 32

5 Colt Keith 32 D — COOL 104 0.145 88.6 6.3% 9.2% 389 6.1% 0.0% 7.5% 23

6 Zach Mckinstry 24 D — WARM 124 0.108 85.6 3.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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