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Nationals Park is live · 1.57×

CHC @ WSH

Nationals Park · 4:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 6 mph slight_out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

4:05p

+9 ↑

5:05p

+6 ↑

6:05p

+4 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

best window is early — 4:05p at +9

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 26 · vs Cavalli ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 24 · vs Gausman → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 80

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ian Happ +475 C ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●●○○

FADE Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 51

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +500 C ●●●●○

2 Cj Abrams +330 C+ ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Cavalli Edge +305 0.261 · 90.3 · 9.6% 16.7% 34.7% F B O C+ 67

· — Daylen Lile HOT vs Gausman Edge +500 0.171 · 88.4 · 7.8% 27.3% 20.2% F B O C 52

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Cavalli Edge +475 0.202 · 89.3 · 9.3% 16.7% 26.1% F B O C 59

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Cavalli +400 0.208 · 88.8 · 8.6% 20.0% 21.8% F B O C 58

· — Cj Abrams COOL vs Gausman Edge +330 0.260 · 89.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 26.6% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Cavalli +575 0.181 · 89.3 · 7.3% 8.3% 13.8% F B O C 50

· — Dylan Crews vs Gausman +425 0.156 · 90.7 · 8.7% 8.3% 12.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Cavalli Edge +525 0.216 · 91.4 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Cavalli +575 0.137 · 88.2 · 5.6% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 44

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Cavalli — 0.104 · 85.9 · 3.0% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 36

· — Jacob Young COOL vs Gausman +950 0.161 · 88.3 · 6.7% 10.0% 12.7% F B O D 47

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Cavalli — 0.115 · 87.3 · 6.6% 12.5% 8.6% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Cavalli Edge +475 0.145 · 88.2 · 8.4% 8.3% 11.0% F B O D 48

· — Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Gausman Edge +700 0.166 · 88.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.037 · 84.6 · 1.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 38.8% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.6% 14.1% 13.8% 12.3% C+ 67 +305

Ian Happ S Edge

14.9% 15.2% 1.4% 11.5% C 59 +475

Seiya Suzuki R

11.3% 9.7% 9.1% 10.5% C 58 +400

Michael Conforto L Edge

10.5% 16.7% 12.5% 11.9% C 53 +525

Dansby Swanson R

6.5% 6.5% 12.1% 7.2% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L Edge

12.3% 3.9% 2.2% 9.0% D 48 +475

Alex Bregman R

2.8% 7.1% 6.1% 4.2% D 44 +575

Carson Kelly R

6.5% 4.2% 5.6% 5.7% D 42 —

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 0.9% 2.2% 1.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.4% ← leak OFF 38.6% BRK 9.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.8% 12.8% 9.5% 10.6% C+ 62 +330

Dylan Crews R

6.9% 10.5% 22.2% 10.2% C 54 +425

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.6% 4.7% 12.6% 8.3% C 52 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

7.8% 2.9% 3.9% 6.1% D 47 +950

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

5.9% 2.4% 3.2% 4.5% D 45 +700

123

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.4% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Cavalli fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Daylen Lile +500 · 52

Seiya Suzuki +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 6 mph slight_out 90°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

89°F

4:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

92°F

5:05p

↑

5 mph · cross

89°F

6:05p

↑

5 mph · cross

86°F

7:05p

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.57× 90°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 67 C+ +305 HOT 4 0.261 90.3 9.6% 22.4%vs RHP 395 20.0% 16.7% 34.7% 31

2 Ian Happ 59 C +475 COOL 15 0.202 89.3 9.3% 24.6%vs RHP 402 17.6% 16.7% 26.1% 27

3 Seiya Suzuki 58 C +400 WARM 17 0.208 88.8 8.6% 20.7%vs RHP 405 16.5% 20.0% 21.8% 31

4 Michael Conforto 53 C +525 COOL 26 0.216 91.4 9.4% 15.2%vs RHP 399 7.0% 0.0% 16.6% 13

5 Dansby Swanson 50 C +575 COOL 38 0.181 89.3 7.3% 16.4%vs RHP 403 11.9% 8.3% 13.8% 30

6 Michael Busch 48 D +475 COOL 44 0.145 88.2 8.4% 14.1%vs RHP 401 12.4% 8.3% 11.0% 44

7 Alex Bregman 44 D +575 WARM 57 0.137 88.2 5.6% 15.6%vs RHP 387 10.3% 16.7% 10.3% 42

8 Carson Kelly 42 D — COOL 67 0.115 87.3 6.6% 6.9%vs RHP 413 7.1% 12.5% 8.6% 26

9 Nico Hoerner 36 D — WARM 95 0.104 85.9 3.0% 7.7%vs RHP 381 5.9% 16.7% 8.9% 40

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 62 C+ +330 COOL 12 0.260 89.8 8.8% 31.1%vs RHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 26.6% 32

2 Dylan Crews 54 C +425 · 22 0.156 90.7 8.7% 14.7%vs RHP 406 17.9% 8.3% 12.3% 32

3 Daylen Lile 52 C +500 HOT 31 0.171 88.4 7.8% 13.3%vs RHP 400 10.5% 27.3% 20.2% 32

4 Jacob Young 47 D +950 COOL 49 0.161 88.3 6.7% 14.9%vs RHP 396 8.4% 10.0% 12.7% 24

5 Keibert Ruiz 45 D +700 COOL 54 0.166 88.5 5.8% 7.5%vs RHP 377 9.1% 0.0% 10.6% 23

6 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 123 0.037 84.6 1.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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