TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.47×

SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 12 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:35p

+8 ↑

2:35p

+7 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

+5 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +8

Best of game Trent Grisham conv 17 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Julio Rodríguez conv 16 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 83

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trent Grisham +305 C ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice +290 C+ ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Julio Rodríguez +425 D ●●○○○

2 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●○○○

3 Josh Naylor +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 9.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Gilbert Edge +305 0.179 · 90.6 · 10.2% 18.2% 15.7% F B O C 51

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Gilbert Edge +290 0.285 · 92.0 · 12.6% 9.1% 20.0% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Gilbert — 0.203 · 86.6 · 10.2% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Fried Edge +425 0.164 · 89.9 · 4.8% 18.2% 14.0% F B O D 42

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Fried Edge +500 0.172 · 91.0 · 4.5% 18.2% 10.6% F B O D 41

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Gilbert Edge — 0.121 · 89.4 · 8.6% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 42

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Fried +625 0.108 · 87.8 · 3.5% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 31

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Gilbert — 0.149 · 83.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 17.9% F B O D 38

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Fried Edge +350 0.139 · 88.9 · 5.8% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Fried +850 0.146 · 86.8 · 3.6% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 36

· SEA Cole Young vs Fried +700 0.143 · 88.9 · 3.6% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 35

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Fried +425 0.235 · 91.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 47

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.158 · 91.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.0% ← leak BRK 23.0% OFF 12.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Dominic Canzone L

16.4% 13.3% 7.8% 13.5% D 47 +425

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

8.9% 8.2% 9.5% 8.8% D 42 +425

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.4% 7.6% 7.4% 8.0% D 41 +500

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.0% 16.7% 14.6% 13.1% D 39 +350

Colt Emerson L

5.5% 4.9% 3.8% 5.0% D 36 +850

Cole Young L

4.4% 9.1% 1.9% 5.0% D 35 +700

107

Josh Naylor L

4.4% 8.5% 1.6% 4.8% D 31 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.0% usage) carries Fried's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.1% ← leak BRK 32.5% OFF 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ben Rice L Edge

18.4% 12.2% 13.2% 15.6% C+ 66 +290

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.5% 8.2% 5.3% 10.1% C 51 +305

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 4.3% 12.0% 10.5% D 47 +500

Austin Wells L Edge

9.5% 5.9% 0.0% 7.2% D 42 —

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.1% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rodríguez Arozarena Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 12 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

80°F

1:35p · peak

↑

13 mph · slight_out

82°F

2:35p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

83°F

3:35p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

84°F

4:35p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

84°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 83°F, wind 12 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 47 D +425 COOL 46 0.235 91.7 5.9% 40.0%vs LHP 403 15.8% 0.0% 14.8% 30

2 Julio Rodríguez 42 D +425 · 64 0.164 89.9 4.8% 25.7%vs LHP 406 16.7% 18.2% 14.0% 28

3 Randy Arozarena 41 D +500 · 72 0.172 91.0 4.5% 16.7%vs LHP 391 13.0% 18.2% 10.6% 35

4 Cal Raleigh 39 D +350 HOT 82 0.139 88.9 5.8% 20.0%vs LHP 395 12.8% 10.0% 7.7% 22

5 Colt Emerson 36 D +850 · 93 0.146 86.8 3.6% 23.1%vs LHP 376 9.6% 9.1% 7.8% 23

6 Cole Young 35 D +700 WARM 97 0.143 88.9 3.6% 12.9%vs LHP 387 11.3% 9.1% 6.8% 39

7 Josh Naylor 31 D +625 · 107 0.108 87.8 3.5% 11.5%vs LHP 392 7.2% 11.1% 9.4% 26

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 66 C+ +290 · 5 0.285 92.0 12.6% 31.5%vs RHP 391 25.0% 9.1% 20.0% 22

2 Trent Grisham 51 C +305 · 33 0.179 90.6 10.2% 17.0%vs RHP 388 11.8% 18.2% 15.7% 32

3 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C — WARM 34 0.203 86.6 10.2% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 13.9% 15

4 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D +500 · 45 0.158 91.3 10.2% 21.3%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 12.3% 19

5 Austin Wells 42 D — HOT 65 0.121 89.4 8.6% 15.4%vs RHP 387 9.8% 10.0% 10.6% 17

6 Jose Caballero 38 D — WARM 83 0.149 83.9 6.4% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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