TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ LAA

Neutral air · 1.02×

TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 10:07p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 8 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:07p

+4 ↑

8:07p

+3 ↑

9:07p

+2 ↑

10:07p

+1 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at +4

Best of game Mike Trout conv 20 · vs deGrom ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 28 · vs Ureña → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 82

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +330 C ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto +425 D ●●○○○

3 Nolan Schanuel +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 14

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +320 C ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo +500 D ●●●○○

3 Wyatt Langford +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Ureña Edge +320 0.260 · 91.9 · 7.6% 33.3% 23.4% F B O C 52

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs deGrom +330 0.208 · 90.1 · 12.2% 18.2% 21.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Ureña Edge +500 0.170 · 92.0 · 7.6% 25.0% 13.2% F B O D 41

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs deGrom +425 0.191 · 89.4 · 10.2% 9.1% 11.0% F B O D 43

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Ureña +425 0.213 · 89.4 · 6.5% 8.3% 11.4% F B O D 41

· TEX Corey Seager vs Ureña Edge +370 0.179 · 91.2 · 8.6% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Ureña +700 0.174 · 88.6 · 5.7% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 36

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs deGrom Edge +700 0.115 · 87.6 · 4.8% 9.1% 6.7% F B O D 27

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Ureña +425 0.176 · 90.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs deGrom +750 0.138 · 88.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs deGrom Edge +525 0.139 · 89.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs deGrom +700 0.124 · 87.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Ureña Edge +700 0.130 · 87.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak OFF 32.2% BRK 15.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.8% 3.8% 12.5% 11.6% C 52 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.6% 8.7% 18.0% 11.1% D 41 +500

Wyatt Langford R

5.0% 15.8% 11.7% 8.0% D 41 +425

Corey Seager L Edge

13.6% 18.2% 12.8% 14.4% D 41 +370

Jake Burger R

10.0% 9.4% 12.3% 10.7% D 39 +425

Ezequiel Duran R

7.7% 0.0% 6.1% 6.2% D 36 +700

110

Evan Carter L Edge

7.8% 0.0% 4.8% 5.8% D 30 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.5% ← leak BRK 43.1% OFF 12.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R

15.9% 25.6% 12.0% 17.2% C 50 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.1% 8.0% 10.5% 11.9% D 43 +425

100

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.8% 2.6% 6.7% 8.9% D 34 +525

105

Vaughn Grissom R

7.9% 6.5% 0.0% 6.4% D 32 +750

109

Oswald Peraza R

6.3% 6.9% 11.5% 7.2% D 31 +700

119

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.7% 3.8% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.5% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Nimmo Trout

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson +320 · 52

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 7:07p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 8 mph out 74°F open

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

7:07p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

71°F

8:07p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

9:07p

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

10:07p

↑

6 mph · out

68°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 74°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 52 C +320 WARM 27 0.260 91.9 7.6% 30.9%vs RHP 395 22.9% 33.3% 23.4% 19

2 Brandon Nimmo 41 D +500 COOL 69 0.170 92.0 7.6% 12.9%vs RHP 403 11.0% 25.0% 13.2% 34

3 Wyatt Langford 41 D +425 COOL 71 0.213 89.4 6.5% 20.9%vs RHP 397 16.2% 8.3% 11.4% 27

4 Corey Seager 41 D +370 · 73 0.179 91.2 8.6% 21.9%vs RHP 396 16.4% 10.0% 9.2% 30

5 Jake Burger 39 D +425 COOL 81 0.176 90.0 7.5% 23.1%vs RHP 398 15.0% 0.0% 9.7% 26

6 Ezequiel Duran 36 D +700 COOL 92 0.174 88.6 5.7% 22.4%vs RHP 393 13.0% 8.3% 9.5% 30

7 Evan Carter 30 D +700 COOL 110 0.130 87.5 5.5% 14.0%vs RHP 374 8.2% 0.0% 6.1% 26

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 50 C +330 COOL 36 0.208 90.1 12.2% 24.2%vs RHP 408 16.3% 18.2% 21.5% 21

2 Zach Neto 43 D +425 COOL 59 0.191 89.4 10.2% 19.0%vs RHP 402 15.9% 9.1% 11.0% 30

3 Josh Lowe 34 D +525 COOL 100 0.139 89.0 8.9% 15.7%vs RHP 396 9.1% 0.0% 7.8% 10

4 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +750 COOL 105 0.138 88.4 7.6% 18.4%vs RHP 390 9.4% 0.0% 7.9% 26

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D +700 WARM 109 0.124 87.6 8.0% 8.3%vs RHP 386 6.0% 0.0% 6.5% 12

6 Nolan Schanuel 27 D +700 · 119 0.115 87.6 4.8% 9.4%vs RHP 375 6.9% 9.1% 6.7% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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