TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Playable air · 1.08×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +9

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 31 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 21 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 93

1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jackson Chourio +350 C+ ●●●●●

3 Brice Turang +525 C ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +280 C+ ●●●○○

2 Kyle Tucker +525 D ●●○○○

3 Andy Pages +350 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Sasaki Edge +390 0.232 · 92.8 · 11.9% 27.3% 35.5% F B O C+ 68

· MIL Jackson Chourio HOT vs Sasaki +350 0.201 · 92.2 · 11.9% 33.3% 28.4% F B O C+ 65

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Drohan +280 0.247 · 93.3 · 11.8% 16.7% 25.1% F B O C+ 64

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Sasaki Edge +525 0.182 · 90.6 · 8.9% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 53

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Drohan — 0.234 · 90.4 · 10.7% 7.1% 13.4% F B O C 57

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Sasaki Edge +525 0.155 · 92.9 · 11.6% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Drohan +525 0.142 · 89.0 · 7.4% 18.2% 8.2% F B O D 43

· LAD Andy Pages vs Drohan Edge +350 0.184 · 89.1 · 8.0% 8.3% 12.9% F B O D 49

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Sasaki Edge +575 0.143 · 88.7 · 9.6% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 49

· MIL William Contreras vs Sasaki +500 0.123 · 89.8 · 8.6% 9.1% 10.6% F B O D 47

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Drohan Edge +500 0.171 · 90.5 · 7.8% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Drohan Edge +400 0.155 · 89.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 18.8% F B O D 43

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Sasaki Edge +850 0.089 · 87.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Drohan +525 0.167 · 89.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.4% ← leak OFF 36.7% BRK 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.1% 14.7% 13.2% 13.9% C+ 68 +390

Jackson Chourio R

14.4% 3.3% 15.2% 13.3% C+ 65 +350

Brice Turang L Edge

9.7% 1.7% 9.8% 8.2% C 53 +525

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.1% 6.7% 10.9% 13.3% C 52 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.8% 12.0% 10.0% 9.5% D 49 +575

William Contreras R

8.0% 0.0% 9.0% 7.5% D 47 +500

David Hamilton L Edge

3.2% 0.0% 7.1% 3.6% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.4% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.3% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 4.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L

20.0% 10.2% 17.3% 16.5% C+ 64 +280

Max Muncy L

14.0% 8.6% 5.9% 11.0% C 57 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R Edge

7.6% 7.9% 8.6% 7.8% D 49 +350

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.1% 3.2% 6.1% 7.4% D 46 +500

Freddie Freeman L

9.2% 8.9% 8.5% 9.0% D 46 +525

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.6% 11.9% 6.9% 9.0% D 43 +400

Kyle Tucker L

9.3% 3.2% 1.4% 6.3% D 43 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.3% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Ohtani Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +390 · 68

Jackson Chourio +350 · 65

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph out 72°F open

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

69°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

67°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 72°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 68 C+ +390 WARM 2 0.232 92.8 11.9% 33.3%vs RHP 401 20.0% 27.3% 35.5% 24

2 Jackson Chourio 65 C+ +350 HOT 6 0.201 92.2 11.9% 20.3%vs RHP 401 17.5% 33.3% 28.4% 29

3 Brice Turang 53 C +525 COOL 25 0.182 90.6 8.9% 26.2%vs RHP 407 11.2% 8.3% 15.4% 32

4 Garrett Mitchell 52 C +525 · 30 0.155 92.9 11.6% 24.2%vs RHP 415 7.2% 0.0% 12.9% 24

5 Christian Yelich 49 D +575 COOL 42 0.143 88.7 9.6% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.5% 10.0% 10.5% 26

6 William Contreras 47 D +500 WARM 48 0.123 89.8 8.6% 17.1%vs RHP 417 9.3% 9.1% 10.6% 33

7 David Hamilton 38 D +850 COOL 86 0.089 87.1 6.1% 6.0%vs RHP 383 3.8% 0.0% 8.5% 25

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 64 C+ +280 COOL 7 0.247 93.3 11.8% 32.4%vs LHP 403 19.1% 16.7% 25.1% 32

2 Max Muncy 57 C — COOL 18 0.234 90.4 10.7% 25.9%vs LHP 411 18.2% 7.1% 13.4% 28

3 Andy Pages 49 D +350 · 40 0.184 89.1 8.0% 17.1%vs LHP 392 13.7% 8.3% 12.9% 37

4 Mookie Betts 46 D +500 COOL 51 0.171 90.5 7.8% 5.4%vs LHP 389 10.4% 9.1% 10.0% 39

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D +525 COOL 52 0.167 89.9 8.8% 14.3%vs LHP 398 11.2% 0.0% 8.3% 38

6 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +400 · 58 0.155 89.2 8.8% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 29

7 Kyle Tucker 43 D +525 COOL 62 0.142 89.0 7.4% 6.7%vs LHP 392 8.0% 18.2% 8.2% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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