TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.00×

CIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Andrew Benintendi conv 29 · vs Abbott ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 25 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 43

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andrew Benintendi — C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Munetaka Murakami +350 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 19

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +400 C ●●●●○

2 Tyler Stephenson +575 D ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Abbott — 0.183 · 88.8 · 8.1% 40.0% 17.8% F B O C 51

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Abbott Edge +370 0.237 · 90.6 · 10.2% 27.3% 29.6% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Abbott +350 0.301 · 94.1 · 12.4% 27.3% 28.8% F B O C+ 69

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Martin +400 0.218 · 90.4 · 9.6% 27.3% 23.3% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Abbott +400 0.227 · 88.9 · 9.6% 18.2% 26.8% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Martin Edge +390 0.225 · 93.7 · 9.7% 18.2% 19.1% F B O C 55

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Martin Edge +425 0.233 · 88.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 27.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Martin +575 0.161 · 91.2 · 9.1% 25.0% 16.4% F B O D 46

· CWS Edgar Quero vs Abbott Edge +850 0.056 · 90.5 · 4.0% 20.0% 11.5% F B O D 34

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Abbott Edge +850 0.130 · 87.8 · 5.9% 11.1% 15.5% F B O D 41

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Martin +400 0.210 · 88.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 23.4% F B O D 45

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Abbott Edge +750 0.142 · 89.2 · 5.2% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 40

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Martin +575 0.149 · 88.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 39

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Martin Edge — 0.082 · 87.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 29

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Abbott — 0.148 · 87.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Abbott — 0.130 · 87.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.2% BRK 27.8% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Sal Stewart R

17.0% 9.5% 10.0% 13.6% C 55 +400

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.2% 10.3% 5.1% 13.7% C 55 +390

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.2% 7.4% 5.7% 10.2% C 50 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R

16.0% 6.3% 5.9% 12.2% D 46 +575

Eugenio Suarez R

14.2% 5.3% 5.9% 11.5% D 45 +400

Matt Mclain R

11.5% 9.5% 0.0% 9.7% D 39 +575

112

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Martin's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.7% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L

22.8% 18.0% 18.2% 20.6% C+ 69 +350

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.4% 11.9% 12.1% 14.0% C+ 63 +370

Colson Montgomery L

12.5% 11.9% 13.2% 12.5% C+ 60 +400

Andrew Benintendi L

12.8% 4.5% 5.7% 8.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.3% 6.1% 4.1% 4.8% D 41 +850

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.3% 3.7% 2.5% 3.7% D 40 +750

Sam Antonacci L

7.9% 5.2% 0.0% 6.1% D 40 —

Tristan Peters L

5.7% 5.4% 0.0% 4.8% D 39 —

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.2% 0.0% 5.9% 2.8% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.7% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Bleday Stephenson Murakami Vargas Montgomery Benintendi Meidroth Quero

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Miguel Vargas +370 · 63

Munetaka Murakami +350 · 69

Sal Stewart +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.00× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 55 C +400 · 19 0.218 90.4 9.6% 24.4%vs RHP 395 16.5% 27.3% 23.3% 31

2 Elly De La Cruz 55 C +390 COOL 20 0.225 93.7 9.7% 21.8%vs RHP 396 17.3% 18.2% 19.1% 32

3 Jj Bleday 50 C +425 COOL 35 0.233 88.7 8.5% 24.6%vs RHP 388 20.0% 0.0% 27.2% 23

4 Tyler Stephenson 46 D +575 WARM 50 0.161 91.2 9.1% 20.4%vs RHP 392 8.7% 25.0% 16.4% 19

5 Eugenio Suarez 45 D +400 WARM 53 0.210 88.6 8.8% 28.6%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 19

6 Matt Mclain 39 D +575 COOL 78 0.149 88.0 8.1% 11.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 24

7 Tj Friedl 29 D — WARM 112 0.082 87.5 4.1% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 4

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 69 C+ +350 · 1 0.301 94.1 12.4% 29.4%vs LHP 403 18.8% 27.3% 28.8% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ +370 · 8 0.237 90.6 10.2% 25.0%vs LHP 392 20.8% 27.3% 29.6% 29

3 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ +400 COOL 14 0.227 88.9 9.6% 29.6%vs LHP 399 22.9% 18.2% 26.8% 22

4 Andrew Benintendi 51 C — WARM 32 0.183 88.8 8.1% 13.2% 389 14.5% 40.0% 17.8% 17

5 Chase Meidroth 41 D +850 COOL 68 0.130 87.8 5.9% 20.0%vs LHP 381 8.1% 11.1% 15.5% 24

6 Braden Montgomery 40 D +750 · 76 0.142 89.2 5.2% 11.1%vs LHP 383 6.5% 10.0% 8.8% 22

7 Sam Antonacci 40 D — COOL 77 0.130 87.6 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.1% 0.0% 6.0% 29

8 Tristan Peters 39 D — COOL 80 0.148 87.0 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 6.7% 18

9 Edgar Quero 34 D +850 WARM 99 0.056 90.5 4.0% 9.5%vs LHP 389 5.9% 20.0% 11.5% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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