TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.96×

BOS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 1 mph out 72°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

3:07p

+0 ↑

4:07p

+0 ↑

5:07p

+0 ↑

6:07p

-4 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 3:07p at +0

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 35 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 13 · vs Tolle → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 99

2.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +625 C ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran +400 C ●●●●○

FADE Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 45

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

3 Ernie Clement +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: Match 24.2% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ HOT vs Scherzer Edge +305 0.207 · 90.1 · 11.4% 45.5% 24.2% F B O C+ 62

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Scherzer +625 0.182 · 86.7 · 7.4% 33.3% 23.8% F B O C 52

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Scherzer Edge +400 0.152 · 89.5 · 10.0% 25.0% 20.8% F B O C 52

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Scherzer +330 0.242 · 90.8 · 12.0% 10.0% 24.4% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Tolle — 0.166 · 91.0 · 9.0% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 43

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Scherzer +750 0.151 · 84.1 · 5.3% 9.1% 12.3% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Tolle — 0.103 · 86.6 · 3.0% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 29

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Scherzer Edge +500 0.129 · 88.6 · 6.1% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Tolle Edge +850 0.125 · 84.8 · 4.2% 9.1% 7.0% F B O D 31

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Tolle Edge +400 0.204 · 90.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Scherzer +575 0.179 · 88.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 49

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Tolle — 0.122 · 85.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 29

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Tolle Edge +475 0.159 · 88.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Tolle Edge +950 0.111 · 85.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.1% BRK 36.2% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Willson Contreras R

12.1% 14.3% 21.9% 13.8% C+ 63 +330

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 15.7% 11.7% 12.8% C+ 62 +305

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 5.4% 12.5% 5.4% C 52 +625

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 7.2% 7.7% 9.9% C 52 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Andruw Monasterio R

7.9% 8.1% 14.3% 8.5% D 49 +575

Caleb Durbin R

3.4% 1.2% 3.1% 2.8% D 41 +750

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.5% 3.6% D 41 +500

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 88.0% ← leak BRK 8.5% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

14.9% 7.1% 14.3% 12.5% D 47 +400

Jesús Sánchez L

10.9% 18.6% 0.0% 11.5% D 43 —

George Springer R Edge

7.7% 5.6% 7.1% 7.0% D 38 +475

108

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 31 +850

111

Andres Gimenez L

3.8% 2.2% 5.1% 3.5% D 29 —

114

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.3% D 29 —

116

Myles Straw R Edge

3.9% 0.0% 7.1% 3.4% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (88.0% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Rafaela Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Wilyer Abreu +305 · 62

Ceddanne Rafaela +625 · 52

Jarren Duran +400 · 52

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 1 mph out 72°F retractable

↑

1 mph · out

70°F

3:07p · peak

↑

1 mph · out

72°F

4:07p

↑

1 mph · out

73°F

5:07p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

73°F

6:07p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

74°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 72°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 2.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.78 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 63 C+ +330 · 9 0.242 90.8 12.0% 30.8%vs RHP 406 19.3% 10.0% 24.4% 18

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 62 C+ +305 HOT 11 0.207 90.1 11.4% 16.5%vs RHP 408 16.5% 45.5% 24.2% 31

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 52 C +625 WARM 28 0.182 86.7 7.4% 17.5%vs RHP 380 13.9% 33.3% 23.8% 46

4 Jarren Duran 52 C +400 · 29 0.152 89.5 10.0% 30.6%vs RHP 399 13.4% 25.0% 20.8% 36

5 Andruw Monasterio 49 D +575 COOL 41 0.179 88.9 9.3% 2.9%vs RHP 390 14.0% 0.0% 11.0% 35

6 Caleb Durbin 41 D +750 COOL 70 0.151 84.1 5.3% 21.1%vs RHP 375 9.0% 9.1% 12.3% 37

7 Masataka Yoshida 41 D +500 WARM 75 0.129 88.6 6.1% 10.4%vs RHP 368 10.3% 10.0% 8.3% 34

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 47 D +400 COOL 47 0.204 90.3 9.3% 19.2%vs LHP 397 17.3% 0.0% 12.3% 26

2 Jesús Sánchez 43 D — WARM 61 0.166 91.0 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.9% 14.3% 10.8% 16

3 George Springer 38 D +475 COOL 87 0.159 88.5 7.1% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.9% 0.0% 8.2% 31

4 Ernie Clement 31 D +850 COOL 108 0.125 84.8 4.2% 10.3%vs LHP 376 8.0% 9.1% 7.0% 39

5 Andres Gimenez 29 D — COOL 111 0.122 85.8 4.9% 16.7%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 30

6 Nathan Lukes 29 D — WARM 114 0.103 86.6 3.0% 9.8% 381 6.5% 12.5% 8.2% 38

7 Myles Straw 29 D +950 COOL 116 0.111 85.8 4.9% 6.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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