TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.92×

PIT @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 10 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-13 ↑

1:10p

-15 ↑

2:10p

-14 ↑

3:10p

-14 ↑

4:10p

-14 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -13

Best of game Jakob Marsee conv 10 · vs Ashcraft ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Phillips → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 89

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●○○○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●○○○○

3 Owen Caissie +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 70

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +370 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Mangum — D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Phillips Edge +370 0.231 · 91.1 · 9.9% 25.0% 22.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Phillips Edge — 0.087 · 85.7 · 3.9% 16.7% 8.0% F B O D 27

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +850 0.105 · 87.1 · 4.9% 12.5% 6.6% F B O D 27

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Ashcraft — 0.135 · 86.7 · 3.9% 11.1% 5.9% F B O D 28

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +525 0.198 · 91.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 43

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Ashcraft +525 0.217 · 91.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 39

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Phillips Edge +575 0.173 · 90.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Phillips Edge +575 0.161 · 86.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Ashcraft +850 0.150 · 89.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Phillips +950 0.092 · 86.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.105 · 87.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Phillips — 0.063 · 87.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 40.7% FB 34.5% OFF 23.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

8.2% 16.6% 9.1% 12.5% C 53 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

14.3% 11.1% 7.2% 11.0% D 42 +575

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.0% 7.6% 10.7% 7.9% D 38 +575

118

Jake Mangum S Edge

0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 1.9% D 27 —

121

Nick Gonzales R

4.9% 2.3% 0.0% 2.8% D 27 +950

125

Jared Triolo R

2.8% 2.5% 0.0% 2.2% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 49.5% FB 45.7% OFF 4.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L Edge

7.7% 16.7% 18.8% 14.7% D 43 +525

Heriberto Hernández R

11.5% 11.5% 16.7% 11.9% D 39 +525

106

Otto Lopez R

4.2% 9.0% 1.6% 6.2% D 32 +850

117

Javier Sanoja R

2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 2.2% D 28 —

120

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.0% 3.0% 8.1% 3.5% D 27 +850

122

Xavier Edwards S Edge

2.4% 4.5% 2.9% 3.8% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ashcraft fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +370 · 53

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 10 mph in 93°F retractable

-13

↑

10 mph · in

88°F

1:10p · peak

-15

↑

12 mph · in

90°F

2:10p

-14

↑

11 mph · in

91°F

3:10p

-14

↑

11 mph · in

91°F

4:10p

-14

↑

11 mph · in

90°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 93°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 53 C +370 WARM 24 0.231 91.1 9.9% 26.2%vs RHP 392 16.7% 25.0% 22.9% 24

2 Bryan Reynolds 42 D +575 COOL 66 0.173 90.6 9.4% 18.0%vs RHP 409 12.0% 0.0% 9.2% 32

3 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +575 COOL 85 0.161 86.8 7.9% 16.7%vs RHP 395 10.8% 0.0% 8.5% 20

4 Jake Mangum 27 D — HOT 118 0.087 85.7 3.9% 10.7%vs RHP 393 5.3% 16.7% 8.0% 32

5 Nick Gonzales 27 D +950 COOL 121 0.092 86.3 4.7% 10.9%vs RHP 397 7.0% 0.0% 6.3% 39

6 Jared Triolo 24 D — COOL 125 0.063 87.5 4.2% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 13

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 43 D +525 COOL 60 0.198 91.1 10.0% 26.7%vs RHP 398 14.3% 0.0% 12.6% 15

2 Heriberto Hernández 39 D +525 COOL 79 0.217 91.7 8.9% 16.7%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 21

3 Otto Lopez 32 D +850 COOL 106 0.150 89.1 6.5% 11.3%vs RHP 402 7.0% 0.0% 7.6% 43

4 Javier Sanoja 28 D — WARM 117 0.135 86.7 3.9% 2.7%vs RHP 383 5.1% 11.1% 5.9% 31

5 Jakob Marsee 27 D +850 COOL 120 0.105 87.1 4.9% 8.2%vs RHP 380 6.4% 12.5% 6.6% 24

6 Xavier Edwards 25 D — COOL 122 0.105 87.0 5.0% 2.9%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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