Slate · 2026-06-15

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2026-06-15

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#6 James Wood vs Mitch Spence FIP 8.65 HR/FB 25.0% #9 Ian Happ vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.16 HR/FB 31.0%

📦 STACK Jared Jones FIP 4.13 HR/FB 33.3% → #2 Nick Kurtz, #3 Shea Langeliers, #10 Tyler Soderstrom

📦 STACK Nick Martinez FIP 4.15 HR/FB 7.8% → #4 Shohei Ohtani, #8 Max Muncy

📦 STACK Tobias Myers FIP 4.84 HR/FB 25.0% → #12 Jj Bleday, #15 Noelvi Marte

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	Nick Kurtz (L) ²	80	-10.2	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.89 FIP3.87 IP655.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium	Nick Kurtz — Home Run OffCarmen Mlodzinski Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle46.0° Distance380 ft StadiumSutter Health Park
2	·James Wood (L) ³	80	·	Mitch Spence (RHP) KC @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%13.9% Avg EV95.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.26 FIP4.50 IP637.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-19 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.7°F Wind4 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0
3	·Hunter Goodman (R)	79	-3.9	Shota Imanaga (LHP) COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.7% HR/91.50 FIP4.64 IP652.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+23 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.6°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2
4	·Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁵	78	·	Ryan Gusto (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%14.6% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.89 IP659.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.0°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +0
5	·Shea Langeliers (R) ³	77	-10.3	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.89 FIP3.87 IP655.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
6	·Ian Happ (S) ⁴	75	+3.2	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.81 IP635.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.6°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2
7	·Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁵	74	-16.5	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	TB Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.10 FIP4.08 IP637.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1
8	·Max Muncy (S) ⁵	73	-8.9	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	4	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls48 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	TB Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.10 FIP4.08 IP637.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+29 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1
9	·Brandon Lowe (L) ³	73	-8.2	J.T. Ginn (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.40 FIP4.78 IP618.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	·Juan Soto (L) ³	73	+6.9	Chase Burns (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.42 FIP5.09 IP627.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
11	·Tyler Soderstrom (L) ³	72	-5.1	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.89 FIP3.87 IP655.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
12	·Junior Caminero (R) ²	72	-15.2	Eric Lauer (LHP) TB @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP3.62 IP622.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1
13	Byron Buxton (R) ³	71	+0.1	MacKenzie Gore (LHP) MIN @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.17 FIP4.17 IP637.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp84.0°F Wind4 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note84°F, wind 4 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1	Byron Buxton — Home Run OffMacKenzie Gore Exit Velo103.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance398 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field
14	·Dillon Dingler (R) ⁵	68	-3.1	Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) DET @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.27 FIP4.92 IP638.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.1°F Wind2.0 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 2 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1
15	Jj Bleday (L) ²	67	+6.1	Tobias Myers (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.95 FIP3.81 IP608.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+2 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0	Jj Bleday — Home Run OffDavid Peterson Exit Velo98.1 mph Angle36.0° Distance365 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park
16	·Corbin Carroll (L) ²	65	-2.3	Walbert Ureña (RHP) LAA @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.04 FIP4.40 IP650.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp105.6°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note106°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3
17	·Bryce Harper (L) ³	65	·	Ryan Gusto (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.89 IP659.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.0°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +0
18	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ⁵	65	-6.2	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.7×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.81 IP635.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.6°F Wind7 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2	Pete Crow-Armstrong — Home Run OffMichael Lorenzen Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle28.0° Distance434 ft StadiumWrigley Field
19	Mike Trout (R) ²	65	-9.6	Ryne Nelson (RHP) LAA @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%14.9% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.29 FIP4.55 IP635.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp105.6°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note106°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3	Mike Trout — Home Run OffRyne Nelson Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle29.0° Distance371 ft StadiumChase Field
20	·Christian Walker (R) ³	65	-4.0	Troy Melton (RHP) DET @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.7×	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.97 IP651.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+2 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.1°F Wind2.0 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 2 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1
21	·Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	65	·	Mitch Spence (RHP) KC @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	12	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.26 FIP4.50 IP637.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77.7°F Wind4 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0
22	·Jared Young (L)	64	·	Chase Burns (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	4	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.42 FIP5.09 IP627.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
23	·Zack Gelof (R) ³	64	-2.6	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.89 FIP3.87 IP655.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
24	·Jonathan Aranda (L) ⁵	63	-5.4	Eric Lauer (LHP) TB @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	12	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP3.62 IP622.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1
25	·Zach Neto (R) ²	62	-4.8	Ryne Nelson (RHP) LAA @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.29 FIP4.55 IP635.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp105.6°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note106°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3
26	·Andy Pages (R) ⁴	62	-9.0	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%8.0% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.0×	TB Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.10 FIP4.08 IP637.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+30 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 1 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1
27	·Spencer Steer (R) ⁴	61	·	Tobias Myers (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	12	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.95 FIP3.81 IP608.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+1 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
28	·Noelvi Marte (R)	60	·	Tobias Myers (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	3	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%7.1% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise BarrelYes Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5.0×	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.95 FIP3.81 IP608.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+1 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
29	·Jordan Walker (R) ³	60	+1.3	Wandy Peralta (LHP) SD @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%7.4% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.7×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.14 FIP4.19 IP633.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Busch Stadium warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.5°F Wind9.1 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 9 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1
30	·Sal Stewart (R) ³	60	+4.3	Tobias Myers (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/90.95 FIP3.81 IP608.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+1 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.3°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 2 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Tonight's 149 ranked batters are behind the wall - see them all. Six home runs to freedom.

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144 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

18.7%

▼ -6.7 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 22.4% prior 15d

Results · 2026-06-15

15 HRs

40%

6 caught / 15 HRs

in top 50

#2 Nick Kurtz

48.2%

🟢

#7 Byron Buxton

25.3%

🟡

#12 JJ Bleday

40.5%

🟡

#19 Pete Crow-Armstrong

26.1%

🔵

#20 Mike Trout

14.3%

🔵

#35 Isaac Paredes

18.8%

🟠

Missed

Spencer Torkelson Dylan Crews Joc Pederson Eugenio Suárez Josh Bell +4 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.6%

B 20.1%

C+ 16.2%

C 12.9%

D 8.4%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-06-15

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.