COL
@
8:05p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 8:05p
· roof open
Park 1.03×
Wind 7 mph out
77°F
open
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
12:05a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.23
77°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Hunter Goodman | 79 | 🟡 B | +330 | 🔥 HOT | 3 | 0.268 | 91.1 | 13.2% | 33.3% vs LHP | 403 | 26.2% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Ezequiel Tovar | 45 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 79 | 0.137 | 88.1 | 9.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 422 | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 23 |
| 3 |
|
Jake Mccarthy | 44 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 81 | 0.161 | 84.8 | 7.8% | 0.0% vs LHP | 418 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Tj Rumfield | 44 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 82 | 0.172 | 85.2 | 8.3% | 0.0% vs LHP | 409 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Kyle Karros | 41 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 96 | 0.117 | 89.2 | 8.8% | 7.7% vs LHP | 408 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Willi Castro | 40 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 102 | 0.094 | 88.3 | 7.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 422 | 5.9% | 18.2% | 11.4% | 37 |
| 7 |
|
Braxton Fulford | 39 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🔥 HOT | 104 | 0.134 | 87.9 | 7.8% | 9.1% | 376 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 4 |
| 8 |
|
Tyler Freeman ⚡ | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 129 | 0.098 | 87.5 | 4.1% | 40.0% vs LHP | 369 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 14.8% | 16 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ian Happ | 75 | 🟡 B | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 6 | 0.263 | 90.2 | 11.9% | 32.5% vs RHP | 403 | 24.6% | 25.0% | 38.3% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 65 | 🔵 C+ | +370 | 🌤️ WARM | 18 | 0.195 | 91.4 | 10.4% | 18.0% vs RHP | 391 | 15.7% | 33.3% | 26.1% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 59 | 🟠 C | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 33 | 0.178 | 89.2 | 9.5% | 25.8% vs RHP | 409 | 12.2% | 30.0% | 21.2% | 25 |
| 4 |
|
Michael Busch | 56 | 🟠 C | +525 | · | 36 | 0.167 | 88.7 | 10.5% | 13.7% vs RHP | 400 | 11.3% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Moises Ballesteros | 47 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 76 | 0.162 | 90.0 | 9.3% | 21.4% vs RHP | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.4% | 17 |
| 6 |
|
Alex Bregman | 44 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 85 | 0.141 | 88.0 | 7.0% | 17.4% vs RHP | 395 | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 39 |
| 7 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 43 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 90 | 0.129 | 89.0 | 8.0% | 10.8% vs RHP | 398 | 10.3% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
Carson Kelly ⚡ | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 105 | 0.093 | 88.8 | 7.9% | 0.0% vs RHP | 418 | 4.9% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 23 |
| 9 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 31 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 131 | 0.096 | 85.8 | 3.2% | 4.8% vs RHP | 383 | 5.8% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 41 |