SD
@
7:45p
STL
Stadium Conditions
Busch Stadium
First pitch 7:45p
· roof open
Park 0.86×
Wind 9 mph cross
78°F
open
+3
6 mph · out
81°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
6 mph · out
81°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
6 mph · out
81°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
6 mph · out
81°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
6 mph · out
81°F
11:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.94
78°F, wind 9 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker ⚡ | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +700 | · | 29 | 0.269 | 94.5 | 7.4% | 42.9% vs LHP | 408 | 21.1% | 25.0% | 26.4% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Lars Nootbaar ⚡ | 54 | 🟠 C | +850 | · | 42 | 0.286 | 95.1 | 8.3% | 28.6% | 439 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.1% | 23 |
| 3 |
|
Alec Burleson | 52 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 51 | 0.199 | 91.5 | 6.8% | 5.0% vs LHP | 405 | 19.4% | 50.0% | 16.6% | 42 |
| 4 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 34 | ⚪ D | · | · | 122 | 0.175 | 89.8 | 5.4% | 35.7% vs LHP | 405 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 38 |
| 5 |
|
Nathan Church | 31 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 132 | 0.140 | 85.8 | 5.9% | 0.0% vs LHP | 387 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 13 |
| 6 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 29 | ⚪ D | · | · | 135 | 0.135 | 90.6 | 5.6% | 8.7% vs LHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 31 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 144 | 0.082 | 87.0 | 3.7% | 0.0% vs LHP | 379 | 3.1% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 32 |
6 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Rodolfo Duran | 53 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 46 | 0.286 | 89.1 | 11.6% | 40.0% vs RHP | 402 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 11 |
| 2 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 49 | ⚪ D | · | · | 67 | 0.237 | 89.2 | 7.6% | 32.4% vs RHP | 394 | 13.1% | 18.2% | 20.8% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Manny Machado | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 91 | 0.182 | 89.8 | 7.7% | 26.5% vs RHP | 396 | 17.2% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 40 |
| 4 |
|
Ty France | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 97 | 0.191 | 91.4 | 8.8% | 31.2% vs RHP | 395 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 17 |
| 5 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 36 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 115 | 0.140 | 90.0 | 8.1% | 11.6% vs RHP | 405 | 11.1% | 16.7% | 7.0% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Xander Bogaerts ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 136 | 0.123 | 88.0 | 6.9% | 20.6% vs RHP | 395 | 11.3% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 21 |