2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

RHB
TB · 72 appearances tracked
14
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
19.4%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
32.2%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
91.8
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.230
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#2
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.203
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
79th pctile
92.8
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
92th pctile
11.6%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
87th pctile
37.5% vs LHP
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall.
99th pctile
406
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
81th pctile
21.5%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
16.7%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
26.3%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
97th pctile
33
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
Loading matchup data...
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 3 games · 14 HRs in 72 games
Due (1×)
2.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
7
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
3
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
72
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
45
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
5
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
36%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#54.4
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
5 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-05 #36 Simeon Woods Richardson Target Field · · · 103.2 mph 397.0 ft
2026-04-06 #24 Jameson Taillon Tropicana Field · · · 106.8 mph 401.0 ft
2026-05-18 #37 Trevor Rogers Tropicana Field · · · 105.8 mph 380.0 ft
2026-06-01 #23 Ty Madden Tropicana Field · · · 110.4 mph 422 ft
2026-06-14 #44 Sam Bachman Angel Stadium R/R ⚠️ 96.0 mph 374 ft
All Appearances
72 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-22 #61 Michael Wacha R/R * 14.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #81 Andrew Alvarez R/L * 17.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #47 Cade Cavalli R/R * 15.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #19 PJ Poulin R/L * 16.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #61 Shohei Ohtani R/R * 17.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-16 #41 Justin Wrobleski R/L * 16.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-15 #11 Eric Lauer R/L * 26.3% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #44 Grayson Rodriguez R/R * 14.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-13 #50 José Soriano R/R * 13.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #48 Sam Aldegheri R/L * 13.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-10 #37 Jake Bennett R/L * 20.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-09 #50 Payton Tolle R/L * 16.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-08 #15 Connelly Early · 19.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-07 #51 Sandy Alcantara · 16.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-06 #50 Lake Bachar · 16.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-05 #47 MIA Bullpen Proxy · 13.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-03 #39 Troy Melton · 13.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-02 #20 Jack Flaherty · 18.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-06-01 #23 Ty Madden · 21.2% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-05-31 #31 Jack Kochanowicz · 22.2% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-30 #25 Reid Detmers · 21.7% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-29 #26 Walbert Ureña · 18.1% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-27 #2 Trey Gibson · 24.2% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-05-26 #12 Shane Baz · 23.6% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-25 #6 Kyle Bradish · 24.1% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-24 #9 Ryan Weathers · 43.1% 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-22 #17 Gerrit Cole · 38.6% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-20 #27 Shane Baz · 34.4% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-19 #35 Kyle Bradish · 30.4% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-18 #37 Trevor Rogers · 34.2% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-17 #58 Eury Pérez · 20.6% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-16 #70 Sandy Alcantara · 15.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-15 #61 Janson Junk · 23.6% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-13 #47 Dylan Cease · 29.2% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-12 #26 Patrick Corbin · 33.7% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-11 #43 Kevin Gausman · 38.6% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-10 #164 Payton Tolle · 18.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-09 #186 Payton Tolle · 16.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #138 Connelly Early · 25.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-07 #118 Jake Bennett · 24.5% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-06 #127 Patrick Corbin · 31.3% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-05 #8 Kevin Gausman · 38.7% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-03 #20 Tyler Mahle · 51.8% 🥇 S 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-02 #58 Landen Roupp · 23.2% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-05-01 #71 Robbie Ray · 32.9% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-29 #83 Gavin Williams · 43.0% 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-28 #43 Tanner Bibee · 28.2% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-27 #30 Parker Messick · 31.3% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-26 #50 Simeon Woods Richardson · 30.8% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-25 #55 Bailey Ober · 31.6% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-24 #64 Taj Bradley · 35.2% 🟢 A 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-22 #79 Brandon Williamson · 19.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-21 #87 Chase Burns · 22.9% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-20 #76 Rhett Lowder · 21.0% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-19 #197 Mitch Keller · 15.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-18 #193 Paul Skenes · 17.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-17 #161 Bubba Chandler · 17.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-16 #66 Jordan Leasure · 19.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-15 #93 Sean Burke · 3.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-04-12 #109 Cam Schlittler · 3.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-11 #36 Max Fried · 18.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-10 #62 Luis Gil · 16.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-08 #18 Colin Rea · 21.9% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-07 #31 Javier Assad · 18.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-06 #24 Jameson Taillon · 20.2% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-05 #36 Simeon Woods Richardson · 15.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · 💥
2026-04-04 #13 Mick Abel · 19.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #8 Jacob Misiorowski · 19.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #10 Brandon Woodruff · 18.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #15 Kyle Harrison · 17.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-29 #24 Dustin May · 17.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #34 Michael McGreevy · 15.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
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