2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
KC
@ 6:45p
WSH
Nationals Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open
Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph cross 78°F open
+4
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.02

78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Mitch Spence
Mitch Spence RHP 💥 Meltdown
2.25 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.69 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 80 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 2 0.254 95.7 13.9% 35.9% vs RHP 408 30.2% 33.3% 36.9% 29
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 21 0.231 88.9 9.2% 25.0% vs RHP 398 18.2% 20.0% 24.2% 31
3 Keibert Ruiz Keibert Ruiz 56 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 38 0.199 89.6 7.0% 8.6% vs RHP 378 20.0% 12.5% 12.9% 27
4 Cj Abrams Cj Abrams 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 39 0.223 90.1 8.9% 28.6% vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 34
5 Dylan Crews Dylan Crews 53 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 48 0.129 91.4 8.4% 20.0% vs RHP 423 20.0% 25.0% 12.6% 32
6 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 49 ⚪ D · · 69 0.167 87.8 7.8% 12.5% vs RHP 403 9.6% 8.3% 11.5% 39
7 Jacob Young Jacob Young 48 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 70 0.153 89.3 7.3% 24.1% vs RHP 391 10.6% 9.1% 12.2% 22
8 Nasim Nunez Nasim Nunez 17 ⚪ D · · 147 0.024 84.9 · 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 21
Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez LHP
0.75 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.37 ·
6 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jac Caglianone Jac Caglianone 53 🟠 C · · 49 0.168 93.6 10.7% 30.0% vs LHP 414 9.8% 16.7% 22.1% 28
2 Carter Jensen Carter Jensen 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 78 0.168 90.5 8.4% 0.0% vs LHP 384 12.0% 9.1% 8.5% 34
3 Starling Marte Starling Marte 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 92 0.079 91.4 10.4% 0.0% vs LHP 441 4.5% 33.3% 11.2% 9
4 Nick Loftin Nick Loftin 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 110 0.138 86.6 6.7% 0.0% vs LHP 381 5.9% 12.5% 7.0% 25
5 Lane Thomas Lane Thomas 37 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 112 0.095 86.9 5.5% 6.2% vs LHP 416 11.8% 28.6% 12.7% 24
6 Isaac Collins Isaac Collins 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 133 0.086 88.5 7.4% 9.1% vs LHP 377 5.1% 0.0% 7.9% 29
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.