2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
CIN RHB
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

RHB
CIN · 62 appearances tracked
6
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
9.7%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
25.2%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
91.1
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.255
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#1
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.198
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
78th pctile
90.7
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
75th pctile
9.8%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
68th pctile
19.1% vs RHP
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall.
83th pctile
394
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
53th pctile
9.1%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
8.3%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
16.4%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
83th pctile
32
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
Loading matchup data...
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 10 games · 6 HRs in 62 games
Due (1×)
0.5×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
5
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
10
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
62
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
42
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
5
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
83%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#43.4
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
5 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-04-25 #6 Jack Flaherty Great American Ball Park · · · 95.7 mph 366.0 ft
2026-05-07 #15 Shota Imanaga Wrigley Field · · · 105.8 mph 393.0 ft
2026-05-18 #17 Andrew Painter Citizens Bank Park · · · 101.3 mph 361.0 ft
2026-05-20 #12 Aaron Nola Citizens Bank Park · · · 109.7 mph 441.0 ft
2026-06-16 #31 Kodai Senga Great American Ball Park R/R 106.9 mph 410 ft
All Appearances
62 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-22 #35 Brandon Woodruff R/R * 16.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 #64 Elmer Rodríguez R/R * 12.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-20 #56 Will Warren R/R * 15.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 #51 Cam Schlittler R/R * 18.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 #48 Nolan McLean R/R * 21.7% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-16 #31 Kodai Senga R/R * 16.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-15 #32 Tobias Myers R/R * 16.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-14 #29 Zac Gallen R/R * 17.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-13 #45 Michael Soroka R/R * 14.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-12 #43 Eduardo Rodriguez R/L * 18.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-10 #70 Michael King R/R * 13.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-09 #106 Lucas Giolito R/R * 14.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-08 #57 Walker Buehler · 13.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-07 #87 Michael McGreevy · 12.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-06 #103 Matthew Liberatore · 12.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-05 #94 Kyle Leahy · 11.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD · · ·
2026-06-03 #54 Stephen Kolek · 18.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-02 #42 Noah Cameron · 17.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-06-01 #22 Luinder Avila · 20.0% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-31 #36 Spencer Strider · 22.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-30 #48 Martín Pérez · 29.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-29 #34 Grant Holmes · 25.6% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-27 #109 Huascar Brazobán · 18.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-26 #60 David Peterson · 19.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-25 #52 Nolan McLean · 25.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-24 #21 Brycen Mautz · 26.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-23 #29 Andre Pallante · 22.3% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-23 #19 Kyle Leahy · 20.7% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-22 #10 Kyle Leahy · 20.2% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-20 #12 Aaron Nola · 24.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-19 #13 Jesús Luzardo · 24.1% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-18 #17 Andrew Painter · 25.7% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-17 #35 Gavin Williams · 19.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #31 Joey Cantillo · 18.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-15 #27 Tanner Bibee · 16.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-14 #11 Foster Griffin · 26.2% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-13 #9 Jake Irvin · 25.1% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-12 #2 Miles Mikolas · 27.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-10 #7 Kai-Wei Teng · 17.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-09 #13 Spencer Arrighetti · 22.9% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-08 #6 Mike Burrows · 21.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-07 #15 Shota Imanaga · 17.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-05-06 #39 Colin Rea · 16.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-05 #23 Jameson Taillon · 26.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-05-04 #14 Edward Cabrera · 20.5% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-03 #136 Braxton Ashcraft · 12.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-02 #156 Carmen Mlodzinski · 11.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-01 #158 Mitch Keller · 10.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-30 #27 Michael Lorenzen · 23.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-29 #7 Tomoyuki Sugano · 46.5% 🔥 A+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-26 #2 Keider Montero · 26.6% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-25 #6 Jack Flaherty · 34.9% 🟢 A 📉 COOL · · 💥
2026-04-24 #7 Framber Valdez · 32.5% 🟢 A 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-22 #18 Nick Martinez · 30.8% 🟢 A 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-21 #15 Steven Matz · 30.8% 🟢 A 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-19 #81 Bailey Ober · 25.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-18 #81 Taj Bradley · 21.9% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-17 #60 Joe Ryan · 25.5% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-16 #2 Landen Roupp · 34.2% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-12 #1 José Soriano · 39.4% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-04-10 #2 Jack Kochanowicz · 51.9% 🥇 S ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-03-29 #172 Connelly Early · 4.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
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