TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ SEA

Playable air · 1.10×

TB @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:45p

-1 ↑

7:45p

+1 ↑

8:45p

+1 ↑

9:45p

+1 ↑

10:45p

the 6:45p window peaks +1

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 22 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 29 · vs Gilbert → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 87

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +425 C ●●●○○

2 Randy Arozarena +525 D ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +350 D ●●●○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 64

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Gilbert +255 0.273 · 93.0 · 11.8% 25.0% 32.7% F B O C+ 66

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +425 0.251 · 91.8 · 10.0% 15.4% 27.9% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Rasmussen +525 0.172 · 91.1 · 7.5% 23.1% 15.9% F B O D 45

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Rasmussen Edge +350 0.145 · 88.7 · 9.7% 18.2% 15.4% F B O D 45

· TB Richie Palacios HOT vs Gilbert Edge +950 0.116 · 85.9 · 6.6% 14.3% 14.2% F B O D 36

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Rasmussen +425 0.165 · 89.8 · 7.9% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Gilbert Edge +575 0.152 · 88.0 · 6.2% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 40

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Gilbert — 0.085 · 87.3 · 3.9% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 30

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.158 · 86.5 · 6.1% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 39

· SEA Cole Young vs Rasmussen Edge +575 0.149 · 88.8 · 6.0% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Gilbert +525 0.158 · 90.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.147 · 91.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.095 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 30

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Gilbert — 0.107 · 85.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.058 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 17

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.066 · 85.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.9% ← leak BRK 32.4% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

17.3% 11.2% 7.8% 13.8% C+ 66 +255

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

104

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.6% 13.0% 5.2% 10.1% D 43 +500

116

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.0% 3.4% 8.3% 3.8% D 40 +575

124

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.5% 4.4% 7.1% D 39 +525

146

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.6% 2.1% 3.4% 4.4% D 36 +950

184

Nick Fortes R

3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 —

188

Ben Williamson R

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 30 —

196

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 27 —

209

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.9% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 80.8% ← leak OFF 12.3% BRK 7.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.2% 8.2% 15.0% 14.3% C 56 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R

8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1% D 45 +525

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 15.0% 15.6% 12.6% D 45 +350

Julio Rodríguez R

8.7% 7.7% 8.4% 8.5% D 44 +425

130

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.6% 4.0% 5.1% 4.7% D 39 +850

137

Cole Young L Edge

4.6% 2.0% 9.3% 5.2% D 38 +575

189

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.0% 1.8% 7.4% 4.4% D 30 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.8% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Palacios Canzone Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +255 · 66

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F retractable

↑

5 mph · cross

81°F

6:45p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:45p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:45p

↑

1 mph · out

68°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 81°F, wind 5 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +255 WARM 4 0.273 93.0 11.8% 40.6%vs RHP 412 27.0% 25.0% 32.7% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 43 D +500 · 104 0.147 91.0 10.0% 17.3%vs RHP 387 11.3% 0.0% 9.8% 32

3 Cedric Mullins 40 D +575 COOL 116 0.152 88.0 6.2% 20.6%vs RHP 389 13.5% 10.0% 10.6% 28

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D +525 · 124 0.158 90.8 8.4% 20.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 31

5 Richie Palacios 36 D +950 HOT 146 0.116 85.9 6.6% 14.3%vs RHP 398 5.1% 14.3% 14.2% 14

6 Nick Fortes 31 D — COOL 184 0.107 85.8 4.8% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% 18

7 Ben Williamson 30 D — COOL 188 0.085 87.3 3.9% 20.0%vs RHP 392 3.8% 11.1% 8.5% 24

8 Taylor Walls 27 D — COOL 196 0.066 85.3 5.0% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 18

9 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 209 0.058 84.0 — 3.1%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 41

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 56 C +425 COOL 24 0.251 91.8 10.0% 26.3%vs RHP 403 16.5% 15.4% 27.9% 40

2 Randy Arozarena 45 D +525 · 84 0.172 91.1 7.5% 24.0%vs RHP 391 12.5% 23.1% 15.9% 42

3 Cal Raleigh 45 D +350 HOT 90 0.145 88.7 9.7% 12.3%vs RHP 395 13.3% 18.2% 15.4% 22

4 Julio Rodríguez 44 D +425 COOL 93 0.165 89.8 7.9% 17.6%vs RHP 407 16.3% 15.4% 9.8% 43

5 Colt Emerson 39 D +850 · 130 0.158 86.5 6.1% 26.3%vs RHP 376 10.4% 7.7% 11.8% 29

6 Cole Young 38 D +575 · 137 0.149 88.8 6.0% 17.6%vs RHP 387 11.7% 7.7% 10.1% 48

7 Josh Naylor 30 D +625 · 189 0.095 87.6 5.6% 12.1%vs RHP 390 6.4% 0.0% 8.3% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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