TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.22×

DET @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+4 ↑

9:15p

+4 ↑

10:15p

+3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +6

Best of game Kevin Mcgonigle conv 30 · vs Proxy ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 22 · vs Montero → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 44

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kevin Mcgonigle — D ●●●●●

2 Dillon Dingler — C ●●●●●

3 Gleyber Torres — D ●●●○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 34

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●○○

2 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Eldridge — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: Match 23.1% · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.254 · 89.3 · 11.7% 36.4% 23.1% F B O C 59

· SF Rafael Devers vs Montero Edge — 0.226 · 92.4 · 8.9% 23.1% 20.3% F B O C 50

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Proxy — 0.203 · 89.7 · 13.6% 9.1% 10.9% F B O C 52

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Proxy — 0.182 · 90.8 · 14.9% 9.1% 9.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 88.0 · 7.0% 50.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Proxy — 0.139 · 86.2 · 7.9% 27.3% 11.9% F B O D 39

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Montero Edge — 0.146 · 86.8 · 4.2% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 31

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Montero Edge — 0.184 · 92.4 · 9.2% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 43

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Montero — 0.187 · 87.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Proxy — 0.150 · 88.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Montero Edge — 0.112 · 86.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 26

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Proxy — 0.110 · 85.5 · 2.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.6% 9.2% 8.3% 11.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

105

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.7% 5.9% 17.2% 12.1% D 43 —

121

Willy Adames R

7.9% 8.9% 10.7% 8.4% D 40 —

185

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% D 31 —

202

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.6% 4.7% 0.0% 2.6% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torres Mcgonigle Devers Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler — · 59

Rafael Devers — · 50

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 76°F open

↑

10 mph · out

73°F

7:15p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

71°F

8:15p

↑

9 mph · out

69°F

9:15p

↑

9 mph · out

67°F

10:15p

↑

8 mph · out

65°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 76°F, wind 10 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 59 C — COOL 28 0.254 89.3 11.7% 21.7% 398 21.7% 36.4% 23.1% 36

2 Spencer Torkelson 52 C — COOL 57 0.203 89.7 13.6% 18.0% 394 16.2% 9.1% 10.9% 37

3 Riley Greene 51 C — COOL 66 0.182 90.8 14.9% 14.5% 399 12.5% 9.1% 9.3% 31

4 Gleyber Torres 39 D — WARM 152 0.139 86.2 7.9% 14.3% 389 10.1% 27.3% 11.9% 33

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D — COOL 153 0.139 88.0 7.0% 7.0% 396 22.2% 50.0% 9.8% 39

6 Colt Keith 35 D — COOL 183 0.150 88.6 7.3% 9.5% 389 6.3% 0.0% 7.1% 32

7 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — WARM 208 0.110 85.5 2.6% 5.2% 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 32

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C — · 52 0.226 92.4 8.9% 26.4%vs RHP 398 17.8% 23.1% 20.3% 39

2 Bryce Eldridge 43 D — COOL 105 0.184 92.4 9.2% 23.1%vs RHP 396 18.8% 8.3% 10.3% 29

3 Willy Adames 40 D — COOL 121 0.187 87.5 7.8% 20.0%vs RHP 388 14.4% 0.0% 10.8% 34

4 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — WARM 185 0.146 86.8 4.2% 13.0%vs RHP 382 5.8% 16.7% 10.9% 40

5 Drew Gilbert 26 D — HOT 202 0.112 86.1 4.3% 12.1%vs RHP 398 3.1% 0.0% 6.4% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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