TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PIT

Playable air · 1.07×

NYM @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 5 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 20 · vs Mlodzinski ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 22 · vs Thornton → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Carmen Mlodzinski RHP · PIT

leak 36

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +425 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +750 D ●●○○○

3 Carson Benge +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 13

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +390 C ●●●○○

2 Bryan Reynolds +500 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Thornton +390 0.226 · 91.1 · 10.8% 23.1% 20.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Mlodzinski Edge +425 0.183 · 91.6 · 8.5% 21.4% 17.6% F B O D 47

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Mlodzinski +750 0.134 · 86.5 · 7.3% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 39

· NYM Carson Benge vs Mlodzinski Edge +700 0.140 · 89.3 · 7.7% 14.3% 9.2% F B O D 40

· NYM Brett Baty vs Mlodzinski Edge — 0.111 · 89.7 · 8.1% 10.0% 12.1% F B O D 37

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Thornton Edge +500 0.176 · 90.9 · 10.2% 7.1% 10.5% F B O D 47

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Thornton Edge — 0.073 · 85.5 · 3.4% 7.7% 5.7% F B O D 27

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Mlodzinski +850 0.112 · 89.3 · 6.8% 7.1% 6.1% F B O D 35

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Mlodzinski +525 0.179 · 90.1 · 11.3% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Thornton — 0.170 · 86.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Mlodzinski Edge +750 0.137 · — · 7.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Thornton Edge +850 0.091 · 86.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Thornton Edge — 0.066 · 87.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.3% ← leak OFF 26.5% BRK 26.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 7.5% 6.9% 9.7% D 47 +425

100

Francisco Alvarez R

18.0% 15.8% 15.4% 16.8% D 43 +525

118

Carson Benge L Edge

7.8% 5.7% 8.9% 7.7% D 40 +700

135

Marcus Semien R

10.1% 8.3% 2.3% 7.3% D 39 +750

141

Brett Baty L Edge

8.4% 4.2% 12.2% 8.3% D 37 —

160

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 0.0% 10.9% 6.2% D 35 +850

166

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.8% 2.9% 10.2% 8.1% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.3% usage) carries Mlodzinski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.5% ← leak BRK 29.7% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L

16.0% 8.2% 9.1% 12.1% C 56 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 14.7% 7.4% 11.2% D 47 +500

106

Spencer Horwitz L

8.2% 7.3% 10.7% 8.3% D 42 —

190

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.4% 5.1% 0.0% 3.0% D 30 +850

197

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 27 —

198

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.6% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.5% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Mlodzinski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +390 · 56

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 5 mph out 81°F open

↑

3 mph · out

79°F

6:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

78°F

7:40p

↑

1 mph · out

77°F

8:40p

↑

1 mph · out

75°F

9:40p

↑

1 mph · out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 81°F, wind 5 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carmen Mlodzinski · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 47 D +425 · 76 0.183 91.6 8.5% 15.8%vs RHP 393 12.2% 21.4% 17.6% 36

2 Francisco Alvarez 43 D +525 WARM 100 0.179 90.1 11.3% 27.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 20

3 Carson Benge 40 D +700 WARM 118 0.140 89.3 7.7% 15.4%vs RHP 401 9.9% 14.3% 9.2% 35

4 Marcus Semien 39 D +750 WARM 135 0.134 86.5 7.3% 17.0%vs RHP 391 11.8% 18.2% 11.8% 31

5 Brett Baty 37 D — WARM 141 0.111 89.7 8.1% 12.7%vs RHP 396 6.7% 10.0% 12.1% 12

6 Bo Bichette 35 D +850 COOL 160 0.112 89.3 6.8% 9.4%vs RHP 388 8.9% 7.1% 6.1% 43

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D +750 · 166 0.137 — 7.8% 13.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 41

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 56 C +390 · 27 0.226 91.1 10.8% 14.8%vs LHP 393 16.3% 23.1% 20.4% 34

2 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +500 · 74 0.176 90.9 10.2% 20.0%vs LHP 409 12.4% 7.1% 10.5% 37

3 Spencer Horwitz 42 D — COOL 106 0.170 86.9 8.7% 14.3%vs LHP 395 11.3% 0.0% 9.0% 11

4 Nick Gonzales 30 D +850 WARM 190 0.091 86.3 5.2% 3.9%vs LHP 397 7.3% 0.0% 6.1% 50

5 Jake Mangum 27 D — COOL 197 0.073 85.5 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 384 4.2% 7.7% 5.7% 40

6 Jared Triolo 27 D — COOL 198 0.066 87.2 4.6% 0.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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