TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.37×

ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:05p

+5 ↑

8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

+6 ↑

11:05p

the 9:05p window peaks +6

Best of game Austin Wells conv 18 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 36 · vs Fried → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 74

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Austin Wells +500 D ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice +290 C+ ●●○○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies +525 D ●●●○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Fried +320 0.274 · 92.6 · 6.5% 50.0% 22.0% F B O C+ 60

· — Ben Rice COOL vs Mahle Edge +290 0.289 · 92.0 · 10.4% 7.7% 19.4% F B O C+ 65

· — Paul Goldschmidt vs Mahle — 0.206 · 86.5 · 8.6% 11.1% 15.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Fried Edge +525 0.176 · 86.8 · 3.5% 23.1% 14.0% F B O D 41

· — Austin Wells HOT vs Mahle Edge +500 0.120 · 89.4 · 7.3% 22.2% 14.7% F B O D 45

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Fried — 0.151 · 90.3 · 4.5% 22.2% 9.6% F B O D 39

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Fried — 0.135 · 87.9 · 4.0% 14.3% 6.0% F B O D 35

· — Jose Caballero vs Mahle — 0.151 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 39

· — Trent Grisham COOL vs Mahle Edge +330 0.168 · 90.4 · 8.1% 8.3% 11.1% F B O D 48

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Fried +500 0.190 · 91.7 · 6.2% 7.1% 11.5% F B O D 45

· ATL Austin Riley vs Fried Edge +525 0.142 · 90.8 · 5.6% 7.7% 7.5% F B O D 38

· — Ryan Mcmahon vs Mahle Edge +500 0.160 · 91.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Fried Edge +850 0.134 · 86.9 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.4% ← leak BRK 23.5% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L

16.8% 11.0% 10.8% 14.3% C+ 60 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L

14.6% 20.0% 5.0% 14.6% D 45 +500

111

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.8% 1.9% 3.0% 4.4% D 41 +525

131

Mike Yastrzemski L

8.3% 6.4% 6.7% 7.5% D 39 —

139

Austin Riley R Edge

13.5% 11.4% 2.9% 11.5% D 38 +525

161

Dominic Smith L

6.0% 7.7% 2.6% 5.8% D 35 —

186

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.1% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.4% usage) carries Fried's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.2% ← leak OFF 25.1% BRK 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

18.4% 11.8% 12.4% 15.4% C+ 65 +290

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.0% 9.1% 4.6% 10.5% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

10.3% 5.4% 8.5% 9.3% D 48 +330

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.3% 12.5% 4.5% 10.8% D 47 +500

Austin Wells L Edge

9.1% 0.0% 8.8% 7.6% D 45 +500

123

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Albies Yastrzemski Rice Goldschmidt Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson +320 · 60

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

85°F

7:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:05p

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

9:05p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

10:05p

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 85°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 60 C+ +320 WARM 13 0.274 92.6 6.5% 22.0%vs LHP 407 24.1% 50.0% 22.0% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 45 D +500 · 82 0.190 91.7 6.2% 35.0%vs LHP 403 17.9% 7.1% 11.5% 39

3 Ozzie Albies 41 D +525 · 111 0.176 86.8 3.5% 15.4%vs LHP 386 14.8% 23.1% 14.0% 40

4 Mike Yastrzemski 39 D — WARM 131 0.151 90.3 4.5% 0.0%vs LHP 392 9.6% 22.2% 9.6% 14

5 Austin Riley 38 D +525 · 139 0.142 90.8 5.6% 16.0%vs LHP 407 8.8% 7.7% 7.5% 24

6 Dominic Smith 35 D — · 161 0.135 87.9 4.0% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.4% 14.3% 6.0% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 30 D +850 WARM 186 0.134 86.9 3.4% 11.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 43

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 65 C+ +290 COOL 6 0.289 92.0 10.4% 32.4%vs RHP 390 25.0% 7.7% 19.4% 28

2 Paul Goldschmidt 52 C — · 40 0.206 86.5 8.6% 18.4%vs RHP 390 16.2% 11.1% 15.1% 31

3 Trent Grisham 48 D +330 COOL 63 0.168 90.4 8.1% 15.8%vs RHP 388 11.2% 8.3% 11.1% 39

4 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D +500 · 67 0.160 91.3 8.7% 21.7%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 11.5% 20

5 Austin Wells 45 D +500 HOT 86 0.120 89.4 7.3% 16.2%vs RHP 387 10.3% 22.2% 14.7% 16

6 Jose Caballero 39 D — WARM 123 0.151 83.9 5.4% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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