TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.47×

BAL @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 9 mph out 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:15p

+14 ↑

8:15p

+14 ↑

9:15p

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10:15p

+15 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 11:15p window peaks +15

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 29 · vs Eovaldi ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 24 · vs Baz → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Nathan Eovaldi RHP · TEX

leak 99

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 12

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +370 C ●●●●○

2 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo ✶ HOT vs Eovaldi +500 0.225 · 92.6 · 10.1% 28.6% 29.3% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Joc Pederson COOL vs Baz Edge +370 0.247 · 91.7 · 8.6% 20.0% 28.6% F B O C 59

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Eovaldi +400 0.210 · 94.0 · 10.5% 16.7% 23.4% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Jake Burger vs Baz +425 0.183 · 90.2 · 8.6% 20.0% 18.3% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Baz +400 0.225 · 89.8 · 7.5% 15.4% 17.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Baz +750 0.183 · 88.7 · 6.6% 23.1% 18.0% F B O D 48

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Baz Edge +525 0.171 · 92.0 · 8.7% 15.4% 10.8% F B O D 47

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Eovaldi Edge +750 0.128 · 87.5 · 6.2% 10.0% 14.9% F B O D 40

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Eovaldi Edge +500 0.175 · 89.6 · 7.8% 8.3% 12.5% F B O D 49

· TEX Corey Seager vs Baz Edge +370 0.181 · 91.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 49

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Eovaldi Edge +575 0.118 · 86.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Baz Edge +625 0.136 · 87.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.041 · 86.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 39.8% ← leak OFF 36.8% BRK 22.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Coby Mayo R

10.2% 18.2% 12.3% 12.0% C+ 60 +500

Pete Alonso R

14.8% 14.7% 7.9% 12.7% C+ 60 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.4% 7.4% 6.1% 7.0% D 49 +500

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.3% 2.3% 10.5% 9.9% D 44 +575

114

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 0.0% 8.2% 4.5% D 40 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.8% usage) carries Eovaldi's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 33.3% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L Edge

13.8% 12.7% 3.8% 11.1% C 59 +370

Jake Burger R

10.3% 13.0% 9.7% 11.2% C 54 +425

Wyatt Langford R

5.2% 12.5% 15.8% 8.4% C 52 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Corey Seager L Edge

13.9% 14.7% 17.2% 14.8% D 49 +370

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 48 +750

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.0% 17.6% 8.7% 11.3% D 47 +525

138

Evan Carter L Edge

8.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.9% D 38 +625

200

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Mayo Alonso Pederson Burger Langford Duran Nimmo

Legend

attack side — vs Eovaldi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Coby Mayo +500 · 60

Joc Pederson +370 · 59

Jake Burger +425 · 54

Ezequiel Duran +750 · 48

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 9 mph out 99°F retractable

+13

↑

9 mph · out

99°F

7:15p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

96°F

8:15p

+14

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12 mph · out

93°F

9:15p

+14

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13 mph · out

91°F

10:15p

+15

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13 mph · out

89°F

11:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 99°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nathan Eovaldi · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo ✶ 60 C+ +500 HOT 10 0.225 92.6 10.1% 11.8%vs RHP 407 16.5% 28.6% 29.3% 15

2 Pete Alonso 60 C+ +400 WARM 12 0.210 94.0 10.5% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.4% 16.7% 23.4% 34

3 Gunnar Henderson 49 D +500 WARM 54 0.175 89.6 7.8% 16.4%vs RHP 390 15.2% 8.3% 12.5% 29

4 Colton Cowser 44 D +575 · 94 0.118 86.9 9.4% 17.8%vs RHP 417 12.3% 0.0% 9.5% 10

5 Leody Taveras 40 D +750 · 114 0.128 87.5 6.2% 15.0%vs RHP 409 3.8% 10.0% 14.9% 25

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 59 C +370 COOL 17 0.247 91.7 8.6% 31.2%vs RHP 394 21.5% 20.0% 28.6% 30

2 Jake Burger 54 C +425 WARM 33 0.183 90.2 8.6% 23.4%vs RHP 398 15.7% 20.0% 18.3% 27

3 Wyatt Langford 52 C +400 WARM 39 0.225 89.8 7.5% 21.4%vs RHP 397 17.3% 15.4% 17.5% 34

4 Corey Seager 49 D +370 WARM 55 0.181 91.5 10.0% 24.3%vs RHP 394 16.1% 0.0% 11.7% 12

5 Ezequiel Duran 48 D +750 · 59 0.183 88.7 6.6% 22.9%vs RHP 393 13.9% 23.1% 18.0% 41

6 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +525 COOL 73 0.171 92.0 8.7% 13.4%vs RHP 400 10.6% 15.4% 10.8% 36

7 Evan Carter 38 D +625 COOL 138 0.136 87.5 6.3% 14.3%vs RHP 374 8.7% 0.0% 7.8% 29

8 Alejandro Osuna 26 D — COOL 200 0.041 86.8 2.0% 5.0%vs RHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 6.5% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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