TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.30×

LAD @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph out 107°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +9

Best of game Shohei Ohtani conv 27 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 16 · vs Sasaki → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 93

1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shohei Ohtani +265 C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Kyle Tucker +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 93

1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●○○

2 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Kelly Edge +265 0.257 · 93.5 · 14.5% 25.0% 29.6% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Max Muncy vs Kelly Edge +350 0.241 · 90.5 · 13.1% 18.2% 29.4% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Sasaki Edge +425 0.225 · 91.8 · 11.2% 7.7% 14.8% F B O C 55

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Kelly +500 0.183 · 89.0 · 9.7% 8.3% 12.7% F B O C 50

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Sasaki Edge +475 0.193 · 90.3 · 10.1% 7.7% 12.2% F B O C 50

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Kelly Edge +475 0.175 · 90.0 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Kelly Edge +525 0.136 · 89.0 · 9.1% 27.3% 14.0% F B O D 46

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Sasaki +575 0.184 · 85.2 · 8.7% 16.7% 16.1% F B O D 48

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Sasaki Edge +850 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.9% 15.4% 7.9% F B O D 37

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Kelly +425 0.160 · 89.3 · 10.9% 0.0% 18.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Sasaki +850 0.139 · 89.4 · 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 42

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Kelly +525 0.164 · 90.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Sasaki Edge — 0.139 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.8% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 21.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.8% 16.0% 10.5% 16.7% C+ 69 +265

Max Muncy L Edge

15.1% 7.1% 8.8% 11.9% C+ 64 +350

Andy Pages R

7.0% 9.1% 8.1% 7.5% C 50 +500

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 9.2% C 50 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

9.1% 6.5% 3.3% 7.5% D 47 +525

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.8% 1.5% 3.3% 6.6% D 46 +525

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.0% 7.1% 12.8% 9.5% D 45 +425

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.8% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.5% ← leak OFF 36.4% BRK 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.1% 11.3% 15.0% 11.9% C 55 +425

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.8% 3.8% 7.2% 9.9% C 50 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

10.6% 6.2% 2.2% 7.4% D 48 +575

108

Gabriel Moreno R

7.1% 8.8% 7.5% 7.5% D 42 +850

144

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.4% D 37 +850

149

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.5% 3.2% 3.4% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Tucker Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Shohei Ohtani +265 · 69

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph out 107°F retractable

↑

11 mph · slight_out

107°F

6:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

106°F

7:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

104°F

8:40p

↑

10 mph · out

100°F

9:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

97°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 107°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 69 C+ +265 · 1 0.257 93.5 14.5% 24.2%vs RHP 403 20.0% 25.0% 29.6% 34

2 Max Muncy 64 C+ +350 WARM 7 0.241 90.5 13.1% 25.3%vs RHP 411 19.1% 18.2% 29.4% 24

3 Andy Pages 50 C +500 COOL 50 0.183 89.0 9.7% 21.0%vs RHP 390 13.4% 8.3% 12.7% 40

4 Freddie Freeman 50 C +475 COOL 51 0.175 90.0 10.8% 16.4%vs RHP 398 11.7% 0.0% 11.4% 40

5 Mookie Betts 47 D +525 COOL 72 0.164 90.6 9.7% 17.5%vs RHP 389 9.7% 0.0% 10.9% 42

6 Kyle Tucker 46 D +525 WARM 78 0.136 89.0 9.1% 11.6%vs RHP 395 7.5% 27.3% 14.0% 31

7 Teoscar Hernandez 45 D +425 COOL 81 0.160 89.3 10.9% 19.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 35

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 55 C +425 WARM 30 0.225 91.8 11.2% 16.9%vs RHP 401 13.5% 7.7% 14.8% 39

2 Ketel Marte 50 C +475 COOL 47 0.193 90.3 10.1% 13.9%vs RHP 412 14.4% 7.7% 12.2% 38

3 Nolan Arenado 48 D +575 · 60 0.184 85.2 8.7% 20.4%vs RHP 392 14.2% 16.7% 16.1% 33

4 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +850 COOL 108 0.139 89.4 8.7% 14.0%vs RHP 400 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% 38

5 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D +850 WARM 144 0.124 87.3 5.9% 10.8%vs RHP 383 7.9% 15.4% 7.9% 43

6 Ildemaro Vargas 36 D — · 149 0.139 87.7 5.9% 8.6%vs RHP 399 4.8% 0.0% 8.1% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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