TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.42×

CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

6:45p

+11 ↑

7:45p

+10 ↑

8:45p

+9 ↑

9:45p

+9 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +14

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 19 · vs Proxy ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 66 · vs Cavalli → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK CIN Bullpen Proxy · BAL

leak 57

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile — C ●●●○○

2 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews — C ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 31

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday — C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart — C+ ●●●●●

3 Tyler Stephenson — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: 10.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 100.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.232 · 88.8 · 8.8% 100.0% 32.3% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Cavalli — 0.222 · 90.6 · 9.9% 38.5% 28.3% F B O C+ 64

· — Daylen Lile vs Proxy — 0.169 · 88.2 · 7.9% 18.2% 19.3% F B O C 54

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Cavalli — 0.159 · 91.1 · 9.3% 18.2% 19.1% F B O C 52

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Cavalli Edge — 0.220 · 94.0 · 10.1% 14.3% 19.8% F B O C+ 60

· — Cj Abrams COOL vs Proxy — 0.266 · 89.7 · 10.9% 0.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 69

· — Dylan Crews vs Proxy — 0.153 · 90.7 · 10.1% 15.4% 13.5% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Cavalli — 0.183 · 88.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 48

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Cavalli — 0.142 · 87.8 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· — Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Proxy — 0.170 · 88.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 47

· — Jacob Young COOL vs Proxy — 0.149 · 88.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 47

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.083 · 87.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Proxy — 0.039 · 84.6 · 0.4% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 10.4% 10.3% 13.9% C+ 64 —

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.0% 10.7% 3.7% 14.0% C+ 60 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.1% 8.0% 5.7% 10.2% C 59 —

Tyler Stephenson R

15.0% 6.9% 5.9% 11.8% C 52 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

12.3% 5.6% 6.2% 10.3% D 48 —

Matt Mclain R

9.3% 9.5% 0.0% 8.6% D 44 —

151

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for CIN Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Bleday Stephenson Abrams Crews Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday — · 59

Sal Stewart — · 64

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph slight_out 81°F open

+14

↑

10 mph · out

81°F

6:45p · peak

+11

↑

10 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:45p

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:45p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

9:45p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.42× 81°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 64 C+ — WARM 8 0.222 90.6 9.9% 23.7%vs RHP 395 17.2% 38.5% 28.3% 31

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ — · 14 0.220 94.0 10.1% 19.2%vs RHP 397 17.0% 14.3% 19.8% 35

3 Jj Bleday ✶ 59 C — COOL 16 0.232 88.8 8.8% 24.1%vs RHP 388 20.0% 100.0% 32.3% 27

4 Tyler Stephenson 52 C — HOT 42 0.159 91.1 9.3% 18.8%vs RHP 392 9.0% 18.2% 19.1% 20

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D — HOT 58 0.183 88.7 8.8% 25.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16

6 Matt Mclain 44 D — COOL 91 0.142 87.8 8.0% 9.6%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 15

7 Tj Friedl 36 D — COOL 151 0.083 87.5 4.2% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 8

vs CIN Bullpen Proxy 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 69 C+ — COOL 5 0.266 89.7 10.9% 21.2% 396 33.3% 0.0% 32.9% 35

2 Dylan Crews 56 C — · 37 0.153 90.7 10.1% 13.6% 406 17.3% 15.4% 13.5% 33

3 Daylen Lile 54 C — · 45 0.169 88.2 7.9% 9.4% 400 9.9% 18.2% 19.3% 34

4 Keibert Ruiz 47 D — COOL 97 0.170 88.6 4.6% 8.6% 377 9.4% 0.0% 11.4% 28

5 Jacob Young 47 D — COOL 98 0.149 88.4 6.3% 11.5% 396 7.6% 0.0% 10.4% 26

6 Nasim Nunez 27 D — COOL 204 0.039 84.6 0.4% 1.8% 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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