TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ MIL

Neutral air · 0.99×

MIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 8 mph slight_out 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 21 · vs Matthews ⟷ Royce Lewis conv 23 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Royce Lewis +350 D ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

3 Luke Keaschall +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.233 · 92.6 · 12.5% 16.7% 25.9% F B O C+ 60

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Matthews +400 0.186 · 92.2 · 12.6% 15.4% 13.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Drohan Edge +350 0.184 · 90.3 · 10.2% 27.3% 19.3% F B O D 47

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Drohan — 0.169 · 87.5 · 8.0% 22.2% 13.5% F B O D 40

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Matthews Edge +500 0.185 · 90.5 · 9.6% 15.4% 13.2% F B O D 48

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Drohan Edge +750 0.099 · 84.7 · 5.1% 20.0% 8.5% F B O D 28

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Drohan +400 0.236 · 92.5 · 9.7% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 48

· MIN Josh Bell vs Drohan Edge +500 0.168 · 90.1 · 8.9% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Matthews +500 0.128 · 89.8 · 9.3% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 41

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Drohan Edge +625 0.175 · 87.6 · 5.4% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 36

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Matthews Edge +575 0.141 · 88.6 · 10.4% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 42

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Matthews Edge +525 0.161 · 92.8 · 12.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Matthews — 0.116 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Drohan Edge +625 0.114 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Drohan Edge +950 0.076 · 87.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.3% ← leak BRK 34.0% OFF 4.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kody Clemens L

8.7% 20.0% 11.1% 11.7% D 48 +400

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.1% 8.1% 8.7% 12.3% D 47 +350

115

Trevor Larnach L

8.1% 9.3% 5.7% 8.0% D 40 —

129

Josh Bell S Edge

10.6% 13.0% 5.8% 10.1% D 39 +500

147

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 0.0% 1.2% 3.6% D 36 +625

191

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.8% 6.2% 6.7% D 29 +625

193

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 3.4% D 28 +750

205

Austin Martin R Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 23 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.3% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 12.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.8% 13.8% 12.9% 13.7% C+ 60 —

Jackson Chourio R

12.9% 14.7% 3.4% 12.3% C 53 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

10.0% 9.2% 1.8% 8.2% D 48 +500

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.9% 11.5% 7.4% 14.1% D 47 +525

110

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.3% 10.5% 12.5% 9.4% D 42 +575

112

William Contreras R

8.2% 8.5% 0.0% 7.5% D 41 +500

158

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 5.9% 0.0% 3.9% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Larnach Keaschall Bauers Chourio Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Royce Lewis +350 · 47

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 8 mph slight_out 82°F retractable

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

80°F

6:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

79°F

7:40p

-2

↑

9 mph · cross

78°F

8:40p

-1

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 82°F, wind 8 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 48 D +400 COOL 62 0.236 92.5 9.7% 28.6%vs LHP 390 16.9% 9.1% 11.6% 35

2 Royce Lewis 47 D +350 WARM 75 0.184 90.3 10.2% 25.0%vs LHP 400 18.1% 27.3% 19.3% 35

3 Trevor Larnach 40 D — WARM 115 0.169 87.5 8.0% 25.0%vs LHP 397 9.9% 22.2% 13.5% 22

4 Josh Bell 39 D +500 WARM 129 0.168 90.1 8.9% 10.7%vs LHP 405 10.2% 10.0% 8.7% 29

5 Brooks Lee 36 D +625 COOL 147 0.175 87.6 5.4% 13.8%vs LHP 369 14.3% 8.3% 9.5% 34

6 Victor Caratini 29 D +625 COOL 191 0.114 89.5 7.3% 13.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 17

7 Luke Keaschall 28 D +750 WARM 193 0.099 84.7 5.1% 4.3%vs LHP 373 6.2% 20.0% 8.5% 29

8 Austin Martin 23 D +950 COOL 205 0.076 87.0 3.9% 3.9%vs LHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 6.0% 20

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 11 0.233 92.6 12.5% 35.1%vs RHP 402 20.0% 16.7% 25.9% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C +400 · 36 0.186 92.2 12.6% 18.0%vs RHP 401 16.0% 15.4% 13.1% 44

3 Brice Turang 48 D +500 COOL 61 0.185 90.5 9.6% 27.1%vs RHP 407 11.7% 15.4% 13.2% 39

4 Garrett Mitchell 47 D +525 · 71 0.161 92.8 12.6% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.5% 0.0% 10.9% 25

5 Christian Yelich 42 D +575 WARM 110 0.141 88.6 10.4% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.6% 9.1% 8.3% 33

6 William Contreras 41 D +500 COOL 112 0.128 89.8 9.3% 18.5%vs RHP 417 9.7% 9.1% 9.3% 34

7 Joey Ortiz 35 D — COOL 158 0.116 87.9 6.7% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.4% 0.0% 8.5% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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