TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.60×

TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:40p

+12 ↑

7:40p

+10 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +13

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 24 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 32 · vs Soriano → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 93

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez +425 C ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +400 C ●●○○○

3 George Springer +500 D ●●○○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 92

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +625 D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +255 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Bryce Harper ✶ vs Soriano Edge +400 0.244 · 90.2 · 9.6% 23.1% 40.4% F B O C+ 66

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Wheeler Edge +425 0.168 · 90.8 · 8.4% 25.0% 22.9% F B O C 51

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Wheeler +400 0.211 · 90.5 · 9.0% 8.3% 22.1% F B O C 56

· — Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Soriano Edge +255 0.280 · 93.2 · 11.7% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C+ 68

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Soriano Edge +625 0.169 · 89.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Wheeler +500 0.166 · 88.5 · 6.8% 15.4% 14.3% F B O D 47

· — Trea Turner vs Soriano +625 0.150 · 88.7 · 7.1% 15.4% 10.0% F B O D 48

· — Bryson Stott vs Soriano Edge +700 0.153 · 89.6 · 7.4% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 47

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Wheeler +950 0.129 · 84.9 · 4.0% 7.7% 9.0% F B O D 37

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.160 · 88.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Wheeler Edge +700 0.101 · 86.4 · 2.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 33

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Wheeler Edge +850 0.116 · 85.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· — Justin Crawford vs Soriano Edge — 0.081 · 86.7 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

· — J.T. Realmuto vs Soriano +700 0.133 · — · 6.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· — Alec Bohm COOL vs Soriano +750 0.133 · 90.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.6% ← leak BRK 22.8% OFF 15.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.1% 7.6% 15.8% 13.0% C 56 +400

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

9.1% 19.6% 0.0% 10.9% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

George Springer R

8.1% 5.8% 8.3% 7.4% D 47 +500

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

5.0% 15.4% 12.0% 8.4% D 45 —

142

Ernie Clement R

2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% D 37 +950

156

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.0% 2.4% 5.6% 3.7% D 35 +850

173

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% D 33 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.6% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.7% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.9% 14.7% 26.9% 17.3% C+ 68 +255

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.8% 14.7% 6.6% 11.8% C+ 66 +400

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.7% 13.3% 2.3% 8.5% C 50 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

8.5% 4.5% 2.6% 6.6% D 48 +625

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.8% 4.5% 5.3% 6.9% D 47 +700

Alec Bohm R

4.7% 4.2% 8.8% 4.9% D 44 +750

126

J.T. Realmuto R

4.2% 7.4% 5.6% 5.1% D 39 +700

174

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Sánchez Springer Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Bryce Harper +400 · 66

Jesús Sánchez +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 86°F open

+13

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

6:40p · peak

+12

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

+10

↑

8 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:40p

↑

9 mph · cross

80°F

9:40p

-1

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.60× 86°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +400 COOL 25 0.211 90.5 9.0% 30.2%vs RHP 397 17.9% 8.3% 22.1% 36

2 Jesús Sánchez 51 C +425 WARM 43 0.168 90.8 8.4% 21.4%vs RHP 398 11.5% 25.0% 22.9% 10

3 George Springer 47 D +500 · 69 0.166 88.5 6.8% 22.4%vs RHP 393 11.2% 15.4% 14.3% 43

4 Brandon Valenzuela 45 D — COOL 87 0.160 88.1 7.2% 22.2%vs RHP 394 9.5% 0.0% 13.0% 9

5 Ernie Clement 37 D +950 · 142 0.129 84.9 4.0% 6.6%vs RHP 376 8.3% 7.7% 9.0% 48

6 Andres Gimenez 35 D +850 COOL 156 0.116 85.9 4.8% 9.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 31

7 Nathan Lukes 33 D +700 COOL 173 0.101 86.4 2.4% 11.9%vs RHP 378 5.6% 0.0% 9.4% 35

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 68 C+ +255 COOL 2 0.280 93.2 11.7% 41.2%vs RHP 403 22.6% 0.0% 25.0% 22

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 66 C+ +400 WARM 3 0.244 90.2 9.6% 36.4%vs RHP 403 19.8% 23.1% 40.4% 34

3 Brandon Marsh 50 C +625 COOL 49 0.169 89.6 8.3% 20.6%vs RHP 393 12.5% 0.0% 14.1% 39

4 Trea Turner 48 D +625 · 64 0.150 88.7 7.1% 21.3%vs RHP 393 13.8% 15.4% 10.0% 47

5 Bryson Stott 47 D +700 WARM 70 0.153 89.6 7.4% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.5% 7.7% 11.0% 32

6 Alec Bohm 44 D +750 COOL 96 0.133 90.6 6.4% 15.2%vs RHP 396 11.1% 0.0% 8.2% 45

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D +700 WARM 126 0.133 — 6.4% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 27

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — WARM 174 0.081 86.7 3.1% 5.0%vs RHP 382 2.5% 0.0% 8.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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