TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.98×

CLE @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 19 · vs Schultz ⟷ Miguel Vargas conv 26 · vs Messick → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Noah Schultz LHP · CWS

leak 87

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins +305 C ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez +500 D ●○○○○

3 Jose Ramirez +320 D ●○○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 13

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Miguel Vargas +330 C ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami +320 C ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 19.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Messick Edge +330 0.239 · 90.7 · 8.7% 23.1% 28.7% F B O C 56

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Messick +320 0.295 · 93.9 · 10.1% 23.1% 25.2% F B O C 59

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Schultz Edge +305 0.201 · 89.0 · 10.9% 20.0% 18.1% F B O C 54

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Messick +400 0.231 · 88.9 · 8.0% 8.3% 14.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Messick — 0.188 · 88.8 · 6.8% 22.2% 16.2% F B O D 44

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Messick Edge +850 0.117 · 88.1 · 5.1% 23.1% 13.0% F B O D 35

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Messick — 0.129 · 87.7 · 5.7% 11.1% 5.5% F B O D 35

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Schultz Edge +500 0.189 · 87.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 43

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Schultz Edge +320 0.155 · 89.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Schultz +525 0.163 · 91.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 43

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Schultz Edge +750 0.123 · 86.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Schultz +750 0.148 · 88.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 40

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Messick Edge +850 0.138 · 88.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Messick — 0.148 · 87.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Schultz +950 0.058 · 83.5 · 1.7% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 69.1% ← leak BRK 20.6% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

12.2% 15.4% 13.3% 13.2% C 54 +305

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.5% 14.9% 3.4% 7.5% D 43 +500

101

Chase Delauter L

8.6% 6.0% 1.6% 6.5% D 43 +525

119

Travis Bazzana L

4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 40 +750

125

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 39 +320

150

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 4.6% 1.1% 3.0% D 36 +750

203

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 24 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.1% usage) carries Schultz's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.6% ← leak OFF 23.8% BRK 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L

20.9% 19.0% 18.6% 19.9% C 59 +320

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.9% 12.1% 12.4% 14.5% C 56 +330

Colson Montgomery L

12.4% 13.9% 11.9% 12.5% C 50 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L

13.3% 5.8% 4.7% 9.2% D 44 —

162

Sam Antonacci L

8.1% 0.0% 5.7% 6.3% D 35 —

163

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.0% 4.2% 6.3% 4.6% D 35 +850

178

Tristan Peters L

5.9% 0.0% 5.4% 4.9% D 33 —

182

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.1% 2.6% 4.3% 3.2% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.6% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Murakami Vargas Benintendi Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Schultz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Miguel Vargas +330 · 56

Munetaka Murakami +320 · 59

Rhys Hoskins +305 · 54

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.98× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Noah Schultz · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 54 C +305 HOT 31 0.201 89.0 10.9% 23.8%vs LHP 389 13.9% 20.0% 18.1% 7

2 Angel Martinez 43 D +500 COOL 99 0.189 87.8 8.2% 22.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 25

3 Chase Delauter 43 D +525 WARM 101 0.163 91.3 7.7% 13.3%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 30

4 Travis Bazzana 40 D +750 WARM 119 0.148 88.4 6.3% 10.0%vs LHP 396 11.1% 0.0% 7.3% 30

5 Jose Ramirez 39 D +320 COOL 125 0.155 89.2 7.2% 20.8%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 34

6 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +750 COOL 150 0.123 86.5 5.2% 10.7%vs LHP 386 7.3% 0.0% 8.0% 36

7 Steven Kwan 24 D +950 COOL 203 0.058 83.5 1.7% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 5.3% 34

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 59 C +320 · 15 0.295 93.9 10.1% 25.0%vs LHP 405 16.7% 23.1% 25.2% 33

2 Miguel Vargas 56 C +330 WARM 23 0.239 90.7 8.7% 26.5%vs LHP 392 20.6% 23.1% 28.7% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 50 C +400 COOL 48 0.231 88.9 8.0% 29.6%vs LHP 399 22.8% 8.3% 14.8% 33

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D — · 92 0.188 88.8 6.8% 13.8% 389 14.7% 22.2% 16.2% 25

5 Sam Antonacci 35 D — · 162 0.129 87.7 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.6% 11.1% 5.5% 36

6 Chase Meidroth 35 D +850 WARM 163 0.117 88.1 5.1% 11.1%vs LHP 381 8.2% 23.1% 13.0% 36

7 Tristan Peters 33 D — COOL 178 0.148 87.1 5.0% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.4% 0.0% 6.2% 29

8 Braden Montgomery 32 D +850 COOL 182 0.138 88.8 4.0% 0.0%vs LHP 371 3.7% 0.0% 6.6% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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