TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.90×

COL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

+0 ↑

9:15p

+0 ↑

10:15p

+2 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 11:15p window peaks +2

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 14 · vs Feltner ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 28 · vs Leahy → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 92

2.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +400 C ●●○○○

2 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Church +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 49

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro +750 D ●●●●○

3 Hunter Goodman +330 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: Match 25.4% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ vs Leahy Edge +425 0.293 · 89.4 · 10.6% 30.0% 25.4% F B O C 57

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Leahy +330 0.293 · 90.5 · 12.9% 11.1% 26.3% F B O C+ 61

· STL Alec Burleson vs Feltner Edge +400 0.193 · 91.8 · 11.2% 8.3% 19.7% F B O C 52

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Feltner +370 0.206 · 93.1 · 11.8% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Leahy Edge +750 0.160 · 87.7 · 9.2% 37.5% 15.1% F B O D 42

· STL José Fermín vs Feltner — 0.118 · 86.5 · 4.9% 11.1% 6.6% F B O D 33

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Leahy +850 0.127 · 87.5 · 8.1% 11.1% 6.4% F B O D 34

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Feltner Edge +750 0.130 · 86.2 · 8.6% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 39

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Leahy Edge +850 0.197 · 84.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Leahy Edge +700 0.168 · 83.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 35

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Leahy +850 0.156 · 89.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Feltner Edge +525 0.139 · 89.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Feltner +625 0.134 · 89.2 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Feltner +850 0.079 · 87.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.107 · 89.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Leahy — 0.067 · 87.6 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 46.1% FB 40.4% OFF 13.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

14.9% 18.9% 10.3% 16.5% C+ 61 +330

Mickey Moniak L Edge

22.7% 9.3% 2.2% 10.7% C 57 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

107

Willi Castro S Edge

6.2% 10.6% 5.9% 8.4% D 42 +750

136

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

1.5% 5.6% 6.5% 4.8% D 38 +850

143

Kyle Karros R

4.8% 7.6% 11.5% 7.3% D 37 +850

155

Tj Rumfield L Edge

2.0% 5.7% 5.6% 4.5% D 35 +700

171

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.1% 5.6% 8.3% 6.4% D 34 +850

201

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 26 —

207

Tyler Freeman R

0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 1.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 43.0% ← leak FB 40.9% OFF 16.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Alec Burleson L Edge

12.3% 11.7% 10.5% 11.6% C 52 +400

Jordan Walker R

11.7% 13.4% 14.7% 13.0% C 52 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

127

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

4.5% 9.6% 2.0% 7.2% D 39 +525

133

Nathan Church L Edge

6.7% 8.0% 5.2% 6.9% D 39 +750

154

Ivan Herrera R

5.2% 5.6% 6.8% 5.6% D 35 +625

177

José Fermín R

2.4% 2.6% 0.0% 2.2% D 33 —

192

Masyn Winn R

2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% D 29 +850

Read the columns: the breaking family (43.0% usage) carries Feltner's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mickey Moniak +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F open

-3

↑

1 mph · out

84°F

7:15p

-1

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

8:15p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

9:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:15p

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

11:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 83°F, wind 2 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 61 C+ +330 COOL 9 0.293 90.5 12.9% 40.6%vs RHP 411 24.2% 11.1% 26.3% 19

2 Mickey Moniak ✶ 57 C +425 · 20 0.293 89.4 10.6% 25.4%vs RHP 417 18.7% 30.0% 25.4% 27

3 Willi Castro 42 D +750 WARM 107 0.160 87.7 9.2% 17.5%vs RHP 411 11.8% 37.5% 15.1% 22

4 Jake Mccarthy 38 D +850 COOL 136 0.197 84.9 6.9% 14.8%vs RHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 10.7% 43

5 Kyle Karros 37 D +850 COOL 143 0.156 89.6 8.8% 22.2%vs RHP 417 10.1% 0.0% 8.3% 24

6 Tj Rumfield 35 D +700 COOL 155 0.168 83.9 7.0% 16.2%vs RHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 9.3% 33

7 Ezequiel Tovar 34 D +850 · 171 0.127 87.5 8.1% 15.5%vs RHP 408 8.0% 11.1% 6.4% 23

8 Troy Johnston 26 D — COOL 201 0.107 89.6 4.4% 7.1%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 6.3% 20

9 Tyler Freeman 22 D — COOL 207 0.067 87.6 3.6% 3.7%vs RHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 5.3% 21

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 2.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 52 C +400 · 38 0.193 91.8 11.2% 21.7%vs RHP 402 14.7% 8.3% 19.7% 35

2 Jordan Walker 52 C +370 COOL 41 0.206 93.1 11.8% 28.3%vs RHP 406 16.7% 0.0% 13.5% 33

3 Jj Wetherholt 39 D +525 COOL 127 0.139 89.7 8.8% 16.9%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.0% 34

4 Nathan Church 39 D +750 COOL 133 0.130 86.2 8.6% 19.4%vs RHP 384 9.0% 9.1% 7.8% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 35 D +625 WARM 154 0.134 89.2 7.8% 17.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 40

6 José Fermín 33 D — WARM 177 0.118 86.5 4.9% 8.0%vs RHP 388 6.2% 11.1% 6.6% 34

7 Masyn Winn 29 D +850 COOL 192 0.079 87.9 5.7% 9.3%vs RHP 390 3.7% 0.0% 6.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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