TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.98×

HOU @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -5

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 13 · vs Blanco ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 21 · vs Ray → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Ronel Blanco RHP · TEX

leak 97

3.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +400 D ●●○○○

2 Manny Machado +330 C ●●○○○

3 Ty France +475 C ●○○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 11

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +500 D ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +350 C ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.8% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 7.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Christian Walker vs Ray Edge +350 0.220 · 89.4 · 9.0% 18.2% 18.5% F B O C 51

· — Manny Machado ✶ vs Blanco +330 0.213 · 90.7 · 11.0% 7.7% 16.2% F B O C 55

· — Ty France COOL vs Blanco +475 0.229 · 92.2 · 11.0% 0.0% 18.0% F B O C 54

· — Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Ray +280 0.313 · 94.5 · 12.3% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Jeremy Peña vs Ray Edge +500 0.197 · 88.2 · 6.8% 25.0% 16.3% F B O D 45

· — Yainer Diaz vs Ray Edge +525 0.153 · 87.7 · 6.8% 20.0% 8.8% F B O D 39

· — Jackson Merrill vs Blanco Edge +400 0.155 · 90.1 · 11.0% 15.4% 9.7% F B O D 48

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Ray Edge +500 0.155 · 89.4 · 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 42

· — Isaac Paredes COOL vs Ray Edge +425 0.163 · 86.2 · 6.9% 9.1% 6.7% F B O D 39

· — Gavin Sheets COOL vs Blanco Edge +525 0.179 · 87.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 45

· — Xander Bogaerts vs Blanco +700 0.101 · 88.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Ray Edge +500 0.154 · 85.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Blanco Edge +625 0.067 · 87.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.112 · 85.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.5% ← leak BRK 35.7% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L

18.9% 23.0% 10.3% 18.2% C 56 +280

Christian Walker R Edge

8.7% 10.0% 15.2% 9.8% C 51 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R Edge

3.8% 7.7% 12.5% 5.7% D 45 +500

109

Cam Smith R Edge

8.5% 14.5% 18.5% 10.8% D 42 +500

132

Yainer Diaz R Edge

6.6% 3.2% 7.1% 5.5% D 39 +525

134

Isaac Paredes R Edge

7.5% 3.4% 2.2% 5.7% D 39 +425

172

Jose Altuve R Edge

6.4% 5.1% 0.0% 5.4% D 33 +500

199

Christian Vazquez R Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.5% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 36.0% ← leak FB 35.6% OFF 28.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Manny Machado R

6.7% 13.4% 7.5% 10.8% C 55 +330

Ty France R

11.4% 11.3% 6.9% 10.7% C 54 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.5% 12.4% 5.8% 10.5% D 48 +400

Gavin Sheets L Edge

4.3% 9.1% 1.9% 6.6% D 45 +525

148

Xander Bogaerts R

2.5% 7.3% 3.6% 5.7% D 36 +700

180

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.7% 4.7% 3.8% 4.4% D 32 +625

Read the columns: the breaking family (36.0% usage) carries Blanco's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Peña Diaz Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Blanco fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 80°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

81°F

6:40p · peak

-7

↑

8 mph · cross

78°F

7:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

77°F

8:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

9:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 80°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 56 C +280 COOL 22 0.313 94.5 12.3% 29.0%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 31

2 Christian Walker 51 C +350 · 44 0.220 89.4 9.0% 27.8%vs LHP 391 18.5% 18.2% 18.5% 30

3 Jeremy Peña 45 D +500 WARM 83 0.197 88.2 6.8% 9.1%vs LHP 385 15.8% 25.0% 16.3% 37

4 Cam Smith 42 D +500 COOL 109 0.155 89.4 9.5% 18.2%vs LHP 411 11.8% 9.1% 8.7% 29

5 Yainer Diaz 39 D +525 WARM 132 0.153 87.7 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.8% 20.0% 8.8% 29

6 Isaac Paredes 39 D +425 COOL 134 0.163 86.2 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 377 11.9% 9.1% 6.7% 38

7 Jose Altuve 33 D +500 COOL 172 0.154 85.6 6.7% 15.4%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 45

8 Christian Vazquez 26 D — COOL 199 0.112 85.9 3.2% 8.3%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 10

vs Ronel Blanco · RHP 3.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.62 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 55 C +330 · 29 0.213 90.7 11.0% 28.4%vs RHP 397 19.1% 7.7% 16.2% 39

2 Ty France 54 C +475 COOL 32 0.229 92.2 11.0% 31.7%vs RHP 394 16.7% 0.0% 18.0% 42

3 Jackson Merrill 48 D +400 · 65 0.155 90.1 11.0% 18.8%vs RHP 410 13.9% 15.4% 9.7% 42

4 Gavin Sheets 45 D +525 COOL 88 0.179 87.7 8.8% 28.8%vs RHP 397 9.9% 0.0% 12.5% 21

5 Xander Bogaerts 36 D +700 WARM 148 0.101 88.3 8.0% 15.1%vs RHP 396 7.5% 0.0% 8.6% 31

6 Jake Cronenworth 32 D +625 COOL 180 0.067 87.4 7.0% 12.0%vs RHP 389 1.5% 0.0% 7.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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