TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.20×

CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+2 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

the 8:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 17 · vs Proxy ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 25 · vs IV → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK CHC Bullpen Proxy

leak 74

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●●○○

2 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

3 Carter Jensen — C ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP

leak 3

0.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.79 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C ●●●●○

2 Nico Hoerner — D ●●○○○

3 Seiya Suzuki — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs IV — 0.264 · 90.4 · 8.5% 28.6% 22.1% F B O C 58

· — Jac Caglianone COOL vs Proxy — 0.201 · 93.0 · 14.0% 18.2% 16.4% F B O C+ 60

· — Carter Jensen vs Proxy — 0.187 · 90.6 · 10.0% 9.1% 12.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Nico Hoerner vs IV Edge — 0.104 · 86.0 · 2.7% 23.1% 9.2% F B O D 30

· — Seiya Suzuki vs IV Edge — 0.208 · 88.9 · 7.8% 15.4% 16.3% F B O D 49

· — Michael Massey vs Proxy — 0.165 · 89.9 · 6.2% 10.0% 12.6% F B O D 43

· — Alex Bregman vs IV Edge — 0.130 · 88.2 · 5.0% 15.4% 7.1% F B O D 35

· — Dansby Swanson vs IV Edge — 0.190 · 89.5 · 6.6% 7.1% 12.3% F B O D 43

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs IV Edge — 0.116 · 87.6 · 5.9% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 35

· — Michael Busch vs IV — 0.151 · 88.3 · 7.5% 7.1% 6.7% F B O D 40

· — Salvador Perez vs Proxy — 0.161 · 88.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 44

· — Michael Conforto COOL vs IV — 0.224 · 91.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· — Ian Happ COOL vs IV Edge — 0.194 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· — Isaac Collins COOL vs Proxy — 0.129 · 88.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 30.6% OFF 24.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

10.8% 12.5% 14.3% 12.0% C 58 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.3% 9.6% 9.1% 10.0% D 49 —

Ian Happ S Edge

14.7% 15.9% 1.5% 11.7% D 46 —

Michael Conforto L

9.9% 18.8% 13.6% 11.9% D 45 —

102

Dansby Swanson R Edge

7.0% 6.7% 12.1% 7.5% D 43 —

120

Michael Busch L

12.9% 4.2% 2.4% 9.5% D 40 —

159

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.8% 4.4% 5.9% 6.0% D 35 —

164

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.0% 6.3% 6.2% 4.1% D 35 —

187

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries IV's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for CHC Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Hoerner Caglianone

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 58

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

2 mph · out

82°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

8:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 81°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.79 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 58 C — HOT 18 0.264 90.4 8.5% 26.9%vs LHP 395 19.8% 28.6% 22.1% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 49 D — · 53 0.208 88.9 7.8% 33.3%vs LHP 405 16.0% 15.4% 16.3% 36

3 Ian Happ 46 D — COOL 79 0.194 89.2 8.2% 13.8%vs LHP 404 16.5% 0.0% 10.8% 30

4 Michael Conforto 45 D — COOL 89 0.224 91.5 8.2% 19.1% 399 7.3% 0.0% 11.0% 15

5 Dansby Swanson 43 D — · 102 0.190 89.5 6.6% 26.1%vs LHP 403 12.3% 7.1% 12.3% 33

6 Michael Busch 40 D — · 120 0.151 88.3 7.5% 11.8%vs LHP 401 12.8% 7.1% 6.7% 51

7 Carson Kelly 35 D — COOL 159 0.116 87.6 5.9% 20.0%vs LHP 413 7.4% 11.1% 8.0% 28

8 Alex Bregman 35 D — · 164 0.130 88.2 5.0% 11.5%vs LHP 387 9.7% 15.4% 7.1% 45

9 Nico Hoerner 30 D — WARM 187 0.104 86.0 2.7% 7.4%vs LHP 381 6.1% 23.1% 9.2% 44

vs CHC Bullpen Proxy 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 60 C+ — COOL 21 0.201 93.0 14.0% 25.4% 416 13.9% 18.2% 16.4% 38

2 Carter Jensen 52 C — · 56 0.187 90.6 10.0% 12.9% 396 14.4% 9.1% 12.2% 24

3 Salvador Perez 44 D — · 113 0.161 88.9 10.0% 12.9% 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 37

4 Michael Massey 43 D — WARM 122 0.165 89.9 6.2% 9.8% 401 6.6% 10.0% 12.6% 33

5 Isaac Collins 38 D — COOL 165 0.129 88.3 5.7% 6.8% 394 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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