TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.76×

LAA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 11 mph in 84°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-14 ↑

7:10p

-14 ↑

8:10p

-14 ↑

9:10p

-15 ↑

10:10p

-15 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -14

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 29 · vs Klassen ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 13 · vs Phillips → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK George Klassen RHP · LAA

leak 99

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.77 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +370 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +475 C ●●○○○

3 Owen Caissie +525 C ●●○○○

FADE Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 56

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +475 D ●○○○○

3 Mike Trout +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Klassen Edge +370 0.220 · 92.1 · 11.9% 30.8% 26.9% F B O C 57

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Klassen +475 0.230 · 91.8 · 12.2% 0.0% 25.5% F B O C 50

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Klassen Edge +525 0.210 · 91.6 · 13.7% 0.0% 19.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Phillips +850 0.145 · 88.7 · 7.1% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 37

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Klassen Edge +750 0.103 · 87.1 · 6.6% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 33

· LAA Zach Neto vs Phillips +475 0.191 · 89.5 · 9.7% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 46

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Klassen — 0.132 · 86.8 · 4.8% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Phillips +400 0.202 · 90.3 · 11.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 47

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Klassen +750 0.157 · 89.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Phillips Edge +750 0.147 · 89.2 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Phillips — 0.131 · 87.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Klassen Edge — 0.105 · 87.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Phillips Edge +950 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 41.2% FB 34.5% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

25.6% 15.7% 12.5% 17.0% D 47 +400

Zach Neto R

8.4% 14.6% 10.5% 12.2% D 46 +475

140

Vaughn Grissom R

6.8% 8.3% 0.0% 6.7% D 37 +850

145

Josh Lowe L Edge

2.7% 13.2% 6.9% 9.2% D 37 +750

169

Oswald Peraza R

7.4% 6.5% 12.0% 7.5% D 34 —

194

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.6% 2.9% 0.0% 2.4% D 28 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.5% ← leak OFF 26.4% BRK 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.8% 7.9% 17.9% 12.1% C 57 +370

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.4% 21.4% 7.9% 15.6% C 53 +525

Heriberto Hernández R

11.9% 16.7% 12.3% 12.4% C 50 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

117

Otto Lopez R

9.3% 1.8% 4.4% 6.5% D 40 +750

175

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 8.1% 2.1% 3.6% D 33 +750

176

Javier Sanoja R

2.1% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% D 33 —

181

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.7% 3.0% 2.7% 3.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.5% usage) carries Klassen's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Klassen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Stowers +370 · 57

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 11 mph in 84°F retractable

-14

↑

11 mph · in

84°F

7:10p · peak

-14

↑

11 mph · in

83°F

8:10p

-14

↑

11 mph · in

82°F

9:10p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

81°F

10:10p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

80°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 84°F, wind 11 mph ESE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 47 D +400 COOL 68 0.202 90.3 11.3% 23.7%vs RHP 409 15.1% 0.0% 11.4% 30

2 Zach Neto 46 D +475 · 80 0.191 89.5 9.7% 18.4%vs RHP 402 16.7% 8.3% 10.1% 30

3 Vaughn Grissom 37 D +850 · 140 0.145 88.7 7.1% 18.9%vs RHP 390 10.2% 16.7% 8.9% 35

4 Josh Lowe 37 D +750 · 145 0.147 89.2 8.3% 16.0%vs RHP 396 9.7% 0.0% 7.9% 10

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D — WARM 169 0.131 87.5 7.5% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% 5

6 Nolan Schanuel 28 D +950 · 194 0.112 87.4 4.2% 8.5%vs RHP 372 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% 42

vs George Klassen · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.77 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 57 C +370 WARM 19 0.220 92.1 11.9% 25.4%vs RHP 396 14.0% 30.8% 26.9% 32

2 Owen Caissie 53 C +525 COOL 35 0.210 91.6 13.7% 27.9%vs RHP 398 15.2% 0.0% 19.5% 6

3 Heriberto Hernández 50 C +475 COOL 46 0.230 91.8 12.2% 17.1%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 25.5% 29

4 Otto Lopez 40 D +750 COOL 117 0.157 89.3 8.7% 11.7%vs RHP 402 7.2% 0.0% 9.6% 52

5 Jakob Marsee 33 D +750 · 175 0.103 87.1 6.6% 8.5%vs RHP 380 6.7% 11.1% 7.6% 23

6 Javier Sanoja 33 D — WARM 176 0.132 86.8 4.8% 2.8%vs RHP 383 5.3% 10.0% 6.9% 37

7 Xavier Edwards 32 D — COOL 181 0.105 87.0 6.9% 3.0%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 6.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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