TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.98×

ATH @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:10p

+0 ↑

8:10p

+1 ↑

9:10p

+2 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 14 · vs Tolle ⟷ Ceddanne Rafaela conv 29 · vs Perkins → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 91

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler +625 D ●●○○○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +425 D ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 79

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +525 D ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +330 C ●●●●○

3 Willson Contreras +330 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Perkins Edge +330 0.206 · 90.0 · 10.2% 30.8% 21.8% F B O C 53

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Perkins +330 0.252 · 90.7 · 10.8% 8.3% 19.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Perkins +525 0.188 · 86.6 · 6.7% 38.5% 18.7% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Tolle +625 0.122 · 89.2 · 7.1% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 34

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Perkins Edge +500 0.150 · 89.6 · 9.0% 15.4% 11.3% F B O D 43

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Tolle +425 0.217 · 90.6 · 8.1% 7.7% 15.5% F B O D 45

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Perkins +700 0.156 · 84.3 · 4.6% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 35

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Tolle Edge +575 0.089 · 90.6 · 7.3% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Perkins +625 0.188 · 89.0 · 8.6% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 44

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Perkins Edge +700 0.124 · 88.3 · 5.2% 7.7% 7.5% F B O D 34

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Tolle Edge +425 0.202 · 87.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Tolle — 0.150 · 89.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 34

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Tolle Edge +750 0.122 · 84.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 28

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Tolle — 0.079 · 86.3 · 2.8% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 88.6% ← leak BRK 8.0% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Tyler Soderstrom L

8.9% 16.4% 0.0% 9.3% D 45 +425

128

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.3% 4.2% 7.3% 7.0% D 39 +425

167

Lawrence Butler L

7.2% 9.5% 4.0% 6.9% D 34 +625

168

Carlos Cortes L

7.8% 4.4% 8.7% 7.2% D 34 —

179

Henry Bolte R Edge

7.4% 7.3% 5.0% 7.1% D 32 +575

195

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 28 +750

206

Jeff Mcneil L

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (88.6% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.0% ← leak BRK 31.1% OFF 19.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 14.8% 21.9% 14.1% C 56 +330

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.3% 15.2% 12.3% 13.0% C 53 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.8% 6.1% 13.0% 5.8% D 46 +525

Andruw Monasterio R

7.8% 8.8% 15.4% 8.8% D 44 +625

103

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.1% 7.7% 8.1% 10.0% D 43 +500

157

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 1.3% 3.3% 2.6% D 35 +700

170

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.6% 0.0% 2.4% 3.4% D 34 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Contreras Abreu Rafaela Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu +330 · 53

Ceddanne Rafaela +525 · 46

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

2 mph · out

90°F

7:10p

↑

1 mph · out

88°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · out

87°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 84°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 45 D +425 WARM 85 0.217 90.6 8.1% 29.2%vs LHP 405 15.0% 7.7% 15.5% 34

2 Jonah Heim 39 D +425 · 128 0.202 87.4 7.1% 36.0%vs LHP 414 11.4% 0.0% 14.2% 38

3 Lawrence Butler 34 D +625 WARM 167 0.122 89.2 7.1% 14.3%vs LHP 407 5.3% 16.7% 10.6% 30

4 Carlos Cortes 34 D — COOL 168 0.150 89.9 7.2% 13.0% 403 5.0% 0.0% 8.9% 9

5 Henry Bolte 32 D +575 · 179 0.089 90.6 7.3% 37.5%vs LHP 420 8.8% 7.7% 8.8% 26

6 Jacob Wilson 28 D +750 · 195 0.122 84.1 4.4% 8.0%vs LHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 6.2% 40

7 Jeff Mcneil 22 D — COOL 206 0.079 86.3 2.8% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 6.1% 32

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 56 C +330 · 26 0.252 90.7 10.8% 31.4%vs RHP 406 20.0% 8.3% 19.8% 17

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 53 C +330 · 34 0.206 90.0 10.2% 17.0%vs RHP 408 16.2% 30.8% 21.8% 38

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 46 D +525 HOT 77 0.188 86.6 6.7% 18.0%vs RHP 380 13.6% 38.5% 18.7% 41

4 Andruw Monasterio 44 D +625 COOL 95 0.188 89.0 8.6% 3.1%vs RHP 390 15.4% 7.7% 8.7% 38

5 Jarren Duran 43 D +500 COOL 103 0.150 89.6 9.0% 29.8%vs RHP 400 13.1% 15.4% 11.3% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 35 D +700 COOL 157 0.156 84.3 4.6% 22.2%vs RHP 375 9.3% 7.7% 9.7% 40

7 Masataka Yoshida 34 D +700 WARM 170 0.124 88.3 5.2% 10.6%vs RHP 368 10.9% 7.7% 7.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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