TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SEA @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 9 mph slight_out 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+2 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

the 6:40p window peaks +3

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 26 · vs Miller ⟷ Julio Rodríguez conv 22 · vs Harrison → edge: Jackson Chourio

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 91

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●●○

2 William Contreras +525 D ●●○○○

3 Jake Bauers +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 9

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Julio Rodríguez +400 D ●●●○○

2 Randy Arozarena +525 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Chourio: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio ✶ vs Miller +400 0.194 · 91.9 · 9.8% 30.8% 21.1% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Miller Edge +350 0.225 · 92.6 · 9.9% 8.3% 14.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Harrison Edge +400 0.168 · 89.9 · 8.0% 25.0% 19.4% F B O D 44

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Harrison Edge +525 0.181 · 91.1 · 7.4% 25.0% 19.4% F B O D 44

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Miller +525 0.124 · 89.9 · 7.5% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 37

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Harrison +525 0.235 · 91.5 · 9.7% 8.3% 15.0% F B O D 49

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Harrison Edge +330 0.142 · 88.9 · 9.5% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 40

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Harrison +750 0.107 · 87.6 · 6.0% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 30

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Miller Edge +625 0.137 · 88.8 · 8.3% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Harrison +850 0.143 · 88.9 · 5.9% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 35

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Miller Edge +500 0.180 · 90.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Miller Edge +575 0.149 · 92.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Miller Edge +950 0.085 · 86.6 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.9% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Dominic Canzone L

15.9% 11.8% 8.5% 13.0% D 49 +525

104

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.0% D 44 +400

105

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.8% 7.5% 7.0% 7.6% D 44 +525

140

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.3% 16.0% 14.0% 12.4% D 40 +330

179

Cole Young L

4.2% 8.9% 1.6% 4.7% D 35 +850

195

Josh Naylor L

4.6% 8.1% 1.5% 4.9% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.9% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.5% ← leak OFF 25.7% BRK 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jackson Chourio R

13.6% 3.1% 14.8% 12.7% C 51 +400

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.8% 14.3% 12.2% 14.0% C 51 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

133

Brice Turang L Edge

9.4% 1.7% 9.8% 8.1% D 41 +500

141

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.7% 6.2% 10.6% 12.9% D 40 +575

163

William Contreras R

8.5% 0.0% 9.6% 8.0% D 37 +525

165

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.7% 11.5% 9.7% 9.9% D 37 +625

204

David Hamilton L Edge

3.1% 0.0% 6.5% 3.5% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rodríguez Arozarena Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Jackson Chourio +400 · 51

Julio Rodríguez +400 · 44

Randy Arozarena +525 · 44

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 9 mph slight_out 74°F retractable

↑

12 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:40p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

79°F

7:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 74°F, wind 9 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 49 D +525 COOL 67 0.235 91.5 9.7% 40.0%vs LHP 402 16.0% 8.3% 15.0% 34

2 Julio Rodríguez 44 D +400 WARM 104 0.168 89.9 8.0% 24.3%vs LHP 405 16.8% 25.0% 19.4% 32

3 Randy Arozarena 44 D +525 COOL 105 0.181 91.1 7.4% 20.0%vs LHP 386 14.2% 25.0% 19.4% 37

4 Cal Raleigh 40 D +330 WARM 140 0.142 88.9 9.5% 21.7%vs LHP 395 13.1% 9.1% 9.5% 22

5 Cole Young 35 D +850 COOL 179 0.143 88.9 5.9% 12.5%vs LHP 387 11.8% 9.1% 6.8% 38

6 Josh Naylor 30 D +750 WARM 195 0.107 87.6 6.0% 11.5%vs LHP 392 6.9% 10.0% 8.3% 30

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio ✶ 51 C +400 WARM 55 0.194 91.9 9.8% 18.8%vs RHP 401 16.5% 30.8% 21.1% 35

2 Jake Bauers 51 C +350 · 57 0.225 92.6 9.9% 30.8%vs RHP 401 19.0% 8.3% 14.7% 27

3 Brice Turang 41 D +500 COOL 133 0.180 90.5 7.5% 25.8%vs RHP 407 10.9% 0.0% 11.2% 23

4 Garrett Mitchell 40 D +575 COOL 141 0.149 92.6 9.6% 23.5%vs RHP 415 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% 21

5 William Contreras 37 D +525 HOT 163 0.124 89.9 7.5% 16.2%vs RHP 417 9.7% 16.7% 8.7% 38

6 Christian Yelich 37 D +625 WARM 165 0.137 88.8 8.3% 16.7%vs RHP 401 7.2% 10.0% 7.7% 24

7 David Hamilton 27 D +950 COOL 204 0.085 86.6 5.0% 5.9%vs RHP 383 3.7% 0.0% 6.2% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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