TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.10×

ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 27 · vs Perkins ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 27 · vs Proxy → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 95

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Michael Massey +625 D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen +370 C ●●○○○

FADE KC Bullpen Proxy

leak 65

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +700 D ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Perkins Edge +390 0.218 · 93.2 · 11.3% 23.1% 30.6% F B O C+ 61

· KC Carter Jensen vs Perkins Edge +370 0.181 · 90.7 · 9.4% 8.3% 13.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Lawrence Butler vs Proxy +700 0.143 · 89.4 · 7.8% 38.5% 15.9% F B O D 48

· KC Michael Massey vs Perkins Edge +625 0.171 · 89.7 · 7.4% 23.1% 18.8% F B O D 48

· — Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Proxy — 0.089 · 86.4 · 1.4% 25.0% 10.2% F B O D 31

· — Henry Bolte vs Proxy — 0.105 · 90.9 · 7.3% 15.4% 9.4% F B O D 42

· — Jonah Heim vs Proxy +625 0.186 · 87.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Perkins Edge +500 0.113 · 89.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 41

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Perkins — 0.166 · 92.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Perkins +475 0.151 · 89.0 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· — Carlos Cortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.154 · 89.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Perkins Edge +700 0.123 · 88.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Perkins — 0.139 · 86.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· — Jacob Wilson vs Proxy +950 0.122 · 84.1 · 2.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.5% ← leak BRK 31.3% OFF 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.5% 18.4% 11.7% 14.7% C+ 61 +390

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.5% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8% C 51 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Michael Massey L Edge

7.7% 7.1% 1.8% 6.4% D 48 +625

Bobby Witt R

11.7% 10.2% 13.3% 11.3% D 47 —

118

Salvador Perez R

13.3% 6.4% 7.1% 9.6% D 42 +475

136

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.5% 3.4% 9.4% 6.8% D 41 +500

149

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.7% 9.7% 2.3% 5.6% D 39 +700

151

Nick Loftin R

5.6% 1.9% 0.0% 4.0% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.5% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for KC Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jac Caglianone +390 · 61

Michael Massey +625 · 48

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph cross 84°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

91°F

6:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

89°F

7:40p

-2

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

8:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

81°F

9:40p

-6

↑

10 mph · cross

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 84°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 61 C+ +390 · 16 0.218 93.2 11.3% 30.6%vs RHP 417 15.3% 23.1% 30.6% 44

2 Carter Jensen 51 C +370 · 59 0.181 90.7 9.4% 17.9%vs RHP 394 14.1% 8.3% 13.1% 27

3 Michael Massey 48 D +625 WARM 70 0.171 89.7 7.4% 10.3%vs RHP 401 8.1% 23.1% 18.8% 35

4 Bobby Witt 47 D — COOL 82 0.166 92.7 10.1% 16.2%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 40

5 Salvador Perez 42 D +475 COOL 118 0.151 89.0 9.2% 17.8%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 35

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 41 D +500 WARM 136 0.113 89.0 7.8% 12.0%vs RHP 395 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% 4

7 Isaac Collins 39 D +700 COOL 149 0.123 88.4 7.1% 8.3%vs RHP 394 5.7% 0.0% 8.3% 31

8 Nick Loftin 39 D — COOL 151 0.139 86.9 6.0% 10.3%vs RHP 397 8.3% 0.0% 8.1% 28

vs KC Bullpen Proxy 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 48 D +700 WARM 103 0.143 89.4 7.8% 16.7% 410 8.6% 38.5% 15.9% 40

2 Jonah Heim 45 D +625 WARM 126 0.186 87.7 7.4% 14.3% 414 9.3% 0.0% 11.8% 30

3 Henry Bolte 42 D — · 153 0.105 90.9 7.3% 16.2% 423 11.4% 15.4% 9.4% 37

4 Carlos Cortes 41 D — COOL 159 0.154 89.5 6.8% 12.1% 403 4.7% 0.0% 9.5% 17

5 Jacob Wilson 33 D +950 WARM 197 0.122 84.1 2.5% 10.0% 386 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% 27

6 Jeff Mcneil 31 D — HOT 203 0.089 86.4 1.4% 5.7% 382 5.4% 25.0% 10.2% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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