TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.99×

SF @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +6

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 19 · vs Griffin ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 21 · vs Whisenhunt → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 85

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +475 C ●●●○○

2 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

FADE Carson Whisenhunt LHP · SF

leak 78

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +400 C ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 10.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Whisenhunt Edge +400 0.199 · 89.3 · 10.1% 20.0% 21.9% F B O C 54

· — Bryce Eldridge vs Griffin +475 0.187 · 92.0 · 10.4% 20.0% 17.1% F B O C 53

· — Rafael Devers ✶ vs Griffin +390 0.228 · 92.5 · 9.8% 18.2% 17.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Drew Gilbert vs Griffin — 0.131 · 86.2 · 5.8% 22.2% 11.9% F B O D 39

· — Willy Adames COOL vs Griffin Edge +475 0.189 · 87.2 · 8.6% 11.1% 12.4% F B O D 48

· — Jung Hoo Lee vs Griffin +950 0.140 · 86.9 · 4.8% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Whisenhunt Edge +950 0.123 · 86.7 · 5.1% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 37

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.063 · 83.6 · 1.5% 9.1% 4.6% F B O D 25

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Whisenhunt Edge +625 0.189 · 87.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 43

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +390 0.146 · 89.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.157 · 91.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 41

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Whisenhunt +750 0.137 · 88.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 39.8% OFF 38.0% BRK 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

11.1% 13.3% 17.5% 12.9% C 54 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

112

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.4% 3.0% 14.9% 8.2% D 43 +625

130

Chase Delauter L

8.2% 1.5% 6.6% 6.5% D 41 —

152

Travis Bazzana L

4.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% D 39 +750

154

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 38 +390

166

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.0% 1.1% 4.5% 3.4% D 37 +950

207

Steven Kwan L

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Whisenhunt's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 24.4% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L

12.0% 10.3% 7.7% 10.7% C 57 +390

Bryce Eldridge L

12.6% 7.1% 15.6% 11.9% C 53 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R Edge

7.5% 8.4% 13.8% 8.3% D 48 +475

145

Drew Gilbert L

5.3% 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% D 39 —

172

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Devers Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rhys Hoskins +400 · 54

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · out

73°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 76°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Carson Whisenhunt · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 54 C +400 WARM 41 0.199 89.3 10.1% 26.1%vs LHP 389 14.5% 20.0% 21.9% 13

2 Angel Martinez 43 D +625 WARM 112 0.189 87.4 8.0% 20.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 27

3 Chase Delauter 41 D — COOL 130 0.157 91.2 7.1% 12.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 39

4 Travis Bazzana 39 D +750 COOL 152 0.137 88.3 5.9% 9.5%vs LHP 396 10.1% 0.0% 5.8% 24

5 Jose Ramirez 38 D +390 COOL 154 0.146 89.2 6.4% 19.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 26

6 Brayan Rocchio 37 D +950 WARM 166 0.123 86.7 5.1% 9.4%vs LHP 384 7.7% 9.1% 7.5% 34

7 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 207 0.063 83.6 1.5% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.8% 9.1% 4.6% 40

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 57 C +390 WARM 30 0.228 92.5 9.8% 10.5%vs LHP 398 18.2% 18.2% 17.9% 31

2 Bryce Eldridge 53 C +475 · 44 0.187 92.0 10.4% 16.7%vs LHP 399 19.3% 20.0% 17.1% 29

3 Willy Adames 48 D +475 COOL 74 0.189 87.2 8.6% 11.1%vs LHP 387 14.4% 11.1% 12.4% 19

4 Drew Gilbert 39 D — WARM 145 0.131 86.2 5.8% 8.7% 399 5.4% 22.2% 11.9% 26

5 Jung Hoo Lee 36 D +950 · 172 0.140 86.9 4.8% 9.5%vs LHP 382 6.2% 9.1% 8.3% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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