TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ TB

Neutral air · 1.04×

TOR @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 15 · vs Martinez ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 29 · vs Soriano → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 52

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez +575 D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes +850 D ●○○○○

3 Ernie Clement +850 D ●○○○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 22

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Taylor Walls — D ●○○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Soriano +350 0.265 · 92.9 · 10.4% 25.0% 32.1% F B O C+ 66

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Martinez +400 0.201 · 90.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez HOT vs Martinez Edge +575 0.162 · 90.9 · 9.0% 12.5% 16.9% F B O D 48

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Martinez Edge +850 0.099 · 86.6 · 2.9% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 33

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.080 · 85.4 · 4.3% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 31

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Soriano Edge +625 0.141 · 90.9 · 9.0% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 45

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Martinez +850 0.121 · 84.6 · 4.2% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 35

· — Yandy Diaz vs Soriano +750 0.158 · 90.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 41

· — Cedric Mullins COOL vs Soriano Edge +700 0.152 · 87.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Martinez +500 0.154 · 88.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Soriano Edge +950 0.117 · 86.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Martinez Edge +850 0.119 · 85.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Soriano — 0.103 · 85.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.058 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 20

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Martinez — 0.111 · 85.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.5% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.1% 17.4% 7.0% 12.3% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.9% 0.0% 18.3% 11.4% D 48 +575

113

George Springer R

7.4% 6.9% 5.6% 6.8% D 43 +500

177

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% D 35 +850

182

Myles Straw R

3.7% 6.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 34 —

184

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.6% 4.8% 2.1% 3.3% D 33 +850

185

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 3.4% 1.2% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.5% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.0% ← leak BRK 30.2% OFF 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.0% 12.1% 7.7% 13.5% C+ 66 +350

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

100

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.6% 13.3% 4.9% 10.1% D 45 +625

127

Yandy Diaz R

5.5% 10.4% 4.1% 6.9% D 41 +750

132

Cedric Mullins L Edge

2.8% 3.1% 8.1% 3.6% D 41 +700

170

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.2% 1.9% 3.3% 4.0% D 36 +950

186

Nick Fortes R

2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 33 —

192

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 —

209

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.0% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sánchez Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Martinez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +350 · 66

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 52 C +400 COOL 48 0.201 90.3 9.3% 28.4%vs RHP 397 16.5% 0.0% 14.6% 27

2 Jesús Sánchez 48 D +575 HOT 71 0.162 90.9 9.0% 19.6%vs RHP 398 10.4% 12.5% 16.9% 13

3 George Springer 43 D +500 COOL 113 0.154 88.5 7.0% 22.0%vs RHP 393 10.6% 0.0% 10.5% 28

4 Ernie Clement 35 D +850 COOL 177 0.121 84.6 4.2% 6.2%vs RHP 376 7.7% 9.1% 7.1% 41

5 Myles Straw 34 D — COOL 182 0.111 85.7 4.8% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 31

6 Andres Gimenez 33 D +850 COOL 184 0.119 85.8 4.9% 10.7%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 34

7 Nathan Lukes 33 D +850 WARM 185 0.099 86.6 2.9% 12.8%vs RHP 381 6.2% 11.1% 8.0% 42

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +350 COOL 8 0.265 92.9 10.4% 41.8%vs RHP 413 26.4% 25.0% 32.1% 34

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +625 · 100 0.141 90.9 9.0% 16.5%vs RHP 386 11.2% 8.3% 10.1% 40

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D +750 · 127 0.158 90.9 7.4% 22.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 46

4 Cedric Mullins 41 D +700 COOL 132 0.152 87.6 5.3% 19.7%vs RHP 389 12.2% 0.0% 11.4% 26

5 Richie Palacios 36 D +950 COOL 170 0.117 86.2 5.6% 12.8%vs RHP 398 4.4% 0.0% 9.0% 23

6 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 186 0.103 85.5 4.3% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 7.7% 11

7 Taylor Walls 31 D — COOL 192 0.080 85.4 4.3% 2.6%vs RHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 9.5% 32

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 209 0.058 83.9 — 2.8%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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