TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.47×

WSH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 102°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:05p

+13 ↑

8:05p

+13 ↑

9:05p

+12 ↑

10:05p

+14 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +14

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 10 · vs Quantrill ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 80

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +500 D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams +350 C ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young — D ●○○○○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 69

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +425 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 32.8% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Proxy — 0.249 · 92.2 · 11.4% 22.2% 32.8% F B O C+ 67

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Proxy +400 0.186 · 89.9 · 10.8% 18.2% 20.3% F B O C 58

· TEX Corey Seager vs Proxy +425 0.187 · 91.4 · 15.6% 20.0% 18.0% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Proxy +475 0.165 · 92.2 · 10.8% 16.7% 12.4% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Proxy +390 0.211 · 89.3 · 7.7% 8.3% 14.9% F B O C 53

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Quantrill Edge +350 0.251 · 89.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 19.5% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Quantrill Edge +500 0.164 · 88.5 · 8.1% 9.1% 10.6% F B O D 47

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Quantrill — 0.153 · 88.4 · 6.9% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 44

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Quantrill +625 0.149 · 90.6 · 8.9% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 48

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Proxy +750 0.169 · 88.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Quantrill Edge +750 0.159 · 88.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Proxy +750 0.130 · 87.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Quantrill Edge — 0.037 · 84.8 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 72.8% ← leak OFF 22.6% BRK 4.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.3% 12.2% 9.2% 10.2% C 59 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

6.9% 14.3% 21.6% 10.4% D 48 +625

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.7% 4.5% 13.0% 8.5% D 47 +500

109

Jacob Young R

7.9% 2.9% 3.7% 6.1% D 44 —

115

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.5% 2.4% 3.1% 4.8% D 43 +750

208

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (72.8% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Nimmo

Legend

attack side — vs Quantrill fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson — · 67

Corey Seager +425 · 62

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 102°F retractable

+13

↑

10 mph · out

103°F

7:05p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

100°F

8:05p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

97°F

9:05p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

94°F

10:05p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

92°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 102°F, wind 8 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 59 C +350 COOL 23 0.251 89.7 8.9% 30.3%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 19.5% 33

2 Dylan Crews 48 D +625 · 78 0.149 90.6 8.9% 12.8%vs RHP 407 16.7% 9.1% 8.8% 33

3 Daylen Lile 47 D +500 WARM 81 0.164 88.5 8.1% 12.5%vs RHP 400 10.0% 9.1% 10.6% 34

4 Jacob Young 44 D — COOL 109 0.153 88.4 6.9% 13.7%vs RHP 399 8.0% 9.1% 9.1% 33

5 Keibert Ruiz 43 D +750 · 115 0.159 88.3 6.1% 7.4%vs RHP 377 8.6% 0.0% 9.5% 21

6 Nasim Nunez 24 D — WARM 208 0.037 84.8 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 27

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 67 C+ — WARM 12 0.249 92.2 11.4% 25.9% 396 21.8% 22.2% 32.8% 18

2 Corey Seager 62 C+ +425 · 27 0.187 91.4 15.6% 19.4% 395 16.9% 20.0% 18.0% 31

3 Jake Burger 58 C +400 COOL 37 0.186 89.9 10.8% 18.6% 400 16.1% 18.2% 20.3% 27

4 Brandon Nimmo 54 C +475 COOL 62 0.165 92.2 10.8% 12.4% 403 10.5% 16.7% 12.4% 36

5 Wyatt Langford 53 C +390 COOL 65 0.211 89.3 7.7% 16.1% 397 16.5% 8.3% 14.9% 30

6 Ezequiel Duran 46 D +750 COOL 116 0.169 88.7 6.4% 14.4% 393 12.2% 0.0% 11.7% 30

7 Evan Carter 40 D +750 COOL 168 0.130 87.7 5.4% 9.0% 374 7.7% 0.0% 8.4% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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