TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.88×

AZ @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:10p

-5 ↑

8:10p

-4 ↑

9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

-4 ↑

11:10p

the 9:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 27 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs Suarez → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 91

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Willson Contreras +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jarren Duran +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 87

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +575 D ●●○○○

3 Ildemaro Vargas — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Kelly Edge +390 0.215 · 89.9 · 12.4% 30.8% 23.0% F B O C+ 60

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Kelly +425 0.244 · 90.1 · 13.2% 18.2% 27.1% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Suarez Edge — 0.202 · 85.1 · 6.0% 30.8% 20.1% F B O D 42

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Suarez +575 0.242 · 91.6 · 7.9% 15.4% 14.7% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Kelly Edge +525 0.148 · 89.7 · 10.8% 15.4% 13.4% F B O D 48

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Kelly +950 0.152 · 83.8 · 6.0% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 39

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Suarez Edge — 0.148 · 87.3 · 4.0% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 29

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Suarez Edge +850 0.154 · 90.4 · 6.3% 12.5% 6.8% F B O D 33

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Kelly +750 0.178 · 86.3 · 8.2% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 45

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Suarez Edge +850 0.157 · 89.2 · 5.9% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 33

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Kelly +700 0.172 · 88.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.126 · 87.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 25

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.111 · 88.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.3% ← leak BRK 19.9% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L

11.2% 15.0% 9.7% 12.1% D 46 +575

120

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.1% 2.0% 5.9% 7.0% D 42 —

187

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

6.6% 7.0% 8.1% 6.9% D 33 +850

190

Tim Tawa R Edge

7.0% 10.8% 4.8% 7.6% D 33 +850

198

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 2.9% 1.4% 3.5% D 29 —

205

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 6.9% D 27 —

206

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.1% 1.5% 2.2% 3.2% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.3% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.9% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 21.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

11.7% 21.2% 15.9% 13.9% C+ 63 +425

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.9% 12.7% 15.9% 13.1% C+ 60 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.8% 7.5% 7.1% 9.6% D 48 +525

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 12.2% 5.8% 5.4% D 45 +750

102

Andruw Monasterio R

7.3% 13.3% 7.2% 7.8% D 45 +700

143

Caleb Durbin R

3.2% 2.9% 2.3% 3.0% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Contreras Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu +390 · 60

Nolan Arenado — · 42

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F open

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

7:10p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

8:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

9:10p · peak

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

10:10p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 73°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 46 D +575 COOL 92 0.242 91.6 7.9% 18.5%vs LHP 402 14.2% 15.4% 14.7% 41

2 Nolan Arenado 42 D — · 120 0.202 85.1 6.0% 30.4%vs LHP 390 15.5% 30.8% 20.1% 35

3 Gabriel Moreno 33 D +850 · 187 0.157 89.2 5.9% 13.6%vs LHP 400 8.9% 9.1% 7.6% 41

4 Tim Tawa 33 D +850 WARM 190 0.154 90.4 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP 402 7.1% 12.5% 6.8% 35

5 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D — WARM 198 0.148 87.3 4.0% 28.6%vs LHP 399 5.5% 10.0% 11.9% 29

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 27 D — COOL 205 0.111 88.3 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 419 2.9% 0.0% 5.0% 30

7 Geraldo Perdomo 25 D — COOL 206 0.126 87.3 4.0% 4.2%vs LHP 383 7.3% 0.0% 5.4% 40

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 63 C+ +425 COOL 15 0.244 90.1 13.2% 30.9%vs RHP 406 20.2% 18.2% 27.1% 26

2 Wilyer Abreu 60 C+ +390 WARM 19 0.215 89.9 12.4% 17.6%vs RHP 406 16.5% 30.8% 23.0% 41

3 Jarren Duran 48 D +525 WARM 73 0.148 89.7 10.8% 28.3%vs RHP 399 12.8% 15.4% 13.4% 32

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 45 D +750 · 98 0.178 86.3 8.2% 17.6%vs RHP 382 13.3% 7.7% 11.0% 47

5 Andruw Monasterio 45 D +700 COOL 102 0.172 88.4 9.9% 2.5%vs RHP 390 12.2% 0.0% 8.3% 45

6 Caleb Durbin 39 D +950 WARM 143 0.152 83.8 6.0% 21.4%vs RHP 376 9.4% 15.4% 9.8% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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