TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.95×

DET @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+2 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 23 · vs Ashcraft ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 23 · vs Montero → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 79

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +575 C ●●●●○

2 Gleyber Torres +850 D ●●○○○

3 Colt Keith +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 34

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +320 C ●●●●○

2 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

3 Oneil Cruz +330 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: 12.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Ashcraft +575 0.240 · 88.9 · 8.5% 23.1% 23.9% F B O C 54

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Montero Edge +320 0.226 · 91.1 · 9.7% 23.1% 23.8% F B O C 55

· PIT Oneil Cruz vs Montero +330 0.208 · 96.0 · 11.0% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Ashcraft +850 0.135 · 86.0 · 7.1% 15.4% 8.2% F B O D 38

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +625 0.154 · 88.7 · 6.9% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 38

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Montero — 0.072 · 87.7 · 4.5% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 28

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Montero Edge — 0.091 · 85.4 · 3.7% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 31

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Ashcraft +525 0.191 · 89.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 46

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Montero Edge +500 0.171 · 90.6 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Montero Edge +575 0.154 · 86.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +575 0.137 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Montero +950 0.092 · 86.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Ashcraft Edge +950 0.104 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 49.2% FB 46.1% OFF 4.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

8.8% 12.4% 6.7% 10.7% C 54 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

11.0% 13.7% 12.5% 12.9% D 46 +525

155

Colt Keith L Edge

13.3% 6.5% 3.2% 6.9% D 38 +625

157

Gleyber Torres R

5.7% 8.7% 0.0% 7.1% D 38 +850

167

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

6.6% 7.8% 1.6% 6.5% D 37 +575

201

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

1.6% 3.4% 0.0% 2.4% D 28 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.5% 7.9% 10.3% 12.6% C 55 +320

Oneil Cruz

15.6% 19.6% 11.1% 16.0% C 52 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

114

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 13.4% 8.5% 11.2% D 43 +500

147

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.3% 6.5% 10.7% 7.5% D 39 +575

194

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 31 —

199

Nick Gonzales R

2.3% 4.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 29 +950

200

Jared Triolo R

3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 2.6% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ashcraft fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +575 · 54

Brandon Lowe +320 · 55

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph out 73°F open

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

70°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 73°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 54 C +575 · 40 0.240 88.9 8.5% 31.2%vs RHP 398 19.8% 23.1% 23.9% 44

2 Spencer Torkelson 46 D +525 · 94 0.191 89.4 9.3% 23.3%vs RHP 394 15.0% 0.0% 12.7% 30

3 Colt Keith 38 D +625 COOL 155 0.154 88.7 6.9% 13.6%vs RHP 389 6.9% 10.0% 9.7% 28

4 Gleyber Torres 38 D +850 COOL 157 0.135 86.0 7.1% 15.8%vs RHP 393 10.1% 15.4% 8.2% 45

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D +575 COOL 167 0.137 87.9 6.7% 8.8%vs RHP 396 20.0% 0.0% 8.0% 44

6 Zach Mckinstry 28 D +950 WARM 201 0.104 85.7 4.0% 6.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 32

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 55 C +320 WARM 34 0.226 91.1 9.7% 25.3%vs RHP 392 16.7% 23.1% 23.8% 27

2 Oneil Cruz 52 C +330 · 47 0.208 96.0 11.0% 33.3%vs RHP 414 23.2% 0.0% 16.8% 0

3 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +500 · 114 0.171 90.6 9.0% 17.0%vs RHP 409 11.4% 0.0% 9.7% 32

4 Spencer Horwitz 39 D +575 COOL 147 0.154 86.8 7.4% 15.6%vs RHP 395 10.4% 0.0% 8.5% 27

5 Jake Mangum 31 D — WARM 194 0.091 85.4 3.7% 10.3%vs RHP 393 4.9% 7.7% 6.7% 38

6 Nick Gonzales 29 D +950 WARM 199 0.092 86.2 4.5% 10.6%vs RHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 7.5% 33

7 Jared Triolo 28 D — WARM 200 0.072 87.7 4.5% 9.5%vs RHP 407 1.5% 11.1% 7.4% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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