TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ BAL

Playable air · 1.09×

NYY @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 4 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:35p

+0 ↑

7:35p

-1 ↑

8:35p

-2 ↑

9:35p

-1 ↑

10:35p

best window is early — 7:35p at +0

Best of game Trent Grisham conv 23 · vs Baz ⟷ Colton Cowser conv 30 · vs Rodón → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 12

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trent Grisham +350 D ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — D ●○○○○

FADE Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 4

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colton Cowser — D ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +370 C ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +370 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Rodón Edge +370 0.224 · 94.2 · 9.1% 30.8% 20.2% F B O C 57

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Baz Edge +330 0.281 · 92.3 · 10.1% 18.2% 24.9% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Rodón Edge +370 0.213 · 92.3 · 8.2% 20.0% 18.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Rodón — 0.145 · 87.1 · 8.1% 37.5% 22.5% F B O D 46

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Baz Edge +350 0.196 · 90.9 · 8.2% 27.3% 19.5% F B O D 49

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Rodón +475 0.179 · 89.8 · 6.7% 15.4% 17.3% F B O D 46

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Rodón Edge — 0.135 · 87.7 · 5.2% 11.1% 8.9% F B O D 35

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Rodón +625 0.139 · 87.3 · 6.7% 7.7% 9.9% F B O D 37

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Baz — 0.203 · 86.6 · 8.4% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 47

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.171 · 90.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 40

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Baz — 0.148 · 83.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 33

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Baz Edge +525 0.154 · 91.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 40

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Baz Edge +525 0.121 · 89.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.6% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 8.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

17.5% 12.8% 12.5% 15.2% C+ 61 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.4% 7.5% 5.3% 9.9% D 49 +350

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% D 47 —

138

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.4% 4.1% 10.7% 9.9% D 40 +525

139

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.2% 12.9% 7.5% 9.1% D 40 —

173

Austin Wells L Edge

9.0% 5.9% 0.0% 6.9% D 36 +525

183

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.6% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.5% BRK 24.3% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.3% 10.3% 15.8% 13.9% C 57 +370

Coby Mayo R Edge

9.5% 12.5% 15.4% 11.4% C 51 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L

15.0% 12.8% 2.2% 11.0% D 46 —

Gunnar Henderson L

8.0% 6.5% 7.9% 7.6% D 46 +475

162

Jackson Holliday L

9.2% 5.0% 6.2% 7.4% D 37 +625

176

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.0% 7.4% 0.0% 4.5% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Rodón's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Baz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Alonso +370 · 57

Coby Mayo +370 · 51

Colton Cowser — · 46

Trent Grisham +350 · 49

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 4 mph cross 80°F open

-1

↑

2 mph · in

79°F

6:35p

↑

1 mph · in

77°F

7:35p · peak

-1

↑

1 mph · in

76°F

8:35p

-2

↑

2 mph · in

74°F

9:35p

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

73°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 80°F, wind 4 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 61 C+ +330 WARM 17 0.281 92.3 10.1% 30.8%vs RHP 391 24.8% 18.2% 24.9% 26

2 Trent Grisham 49 D +350 WARM 66 0.196 90.9 8.2% 21.0%vs RHP 385 13.3% 27.3% 19.5% 32

3 Paul Goldschmidt 47 D — WARM 85 0.203 86.6 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 14.9% 5

4 Ryan Mcmahon 40 D +525 COOL 138 0.154 91.1 8.1% 18.9%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 8.9% 20

5 Jazz Chisholm 40 D — COOL 139 0.171 90.8 7.9% 24.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 17

6 Austin Wells 36 D +525 COOL 173 0.121 89.1 6.9% 14.6%vs RHP 387 9.3% 0.0% 7.1% 19

7 Jose Caballero 33 D — COOL 183 0.148 83.7 5.2% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 4

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 57 C +370 WARM 31 0.224 94.2 9.1% 18.4%vs LHP 402 20.2% 30.8% 20.2% 39

2 Coby Mayo 51 C +370 COOL 61 0.213 92.3 8.2% 39.3%vs LHP 407 16.1% 20.0% 18.9% 30

3 Colton Cowser 46 D — WARM 90 0.145 87.1 8.1% 33.3%vs LHP 419 15.9% 37.5% 22.5% 20

4 Gunnar Henderson 46 D +475 WARM 91 0.179 89.8 6.7% 29.2%vs LHP 391 15.6% 15.4% 17.3% 37

5 Jackson Holliday 37 D +625 COOL 162 0.139 87.3 6.7% 11.1%vs LHP 388 4.4% 7.7% 9.9% 40

6 Leody Taveras 35 D — · 176 0.135 87.7 5.2% 7.7%vs LHP 405 4.7% 11.1% 8.9% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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