TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.40×

CWS @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:05p

+13 ↑

8:05p

+12 ↑

9:05p

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10:05p

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best window is early — 7:05p at +13

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 34 · vs Gausman ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 59

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +305 B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●●○○

FADE CWS Bullpen Proxy · CWS

leak 42

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Gausman Edge +305 0.308 · 94.2 · 12.4% 33.3% 34.2% F B O B 72

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Proxy +370 0.257 · 90.3 · 12.1% 30.8% 27.3% F B O C+ 69

· — Miguel Vargas vs Gausman +370 0.252 · 90.7 · 10.2% 25.0% 30.1% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Proxy +370 0.213 · 89.0 · 10.5% 25.0% 23.1% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Proxy +500 0.195 · 89.3 · 11.2% 16.7% 17.2% F B O C 58

· — Colson Montgomery COOL vs Gausman Edge +400 0.218 · 88.9 · 9.5% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Proxy +500 0.151 · 88.3 · 4.6% 23.1% 15.1% F B O D 44

· — Chase Meidroth COOL vs Gausman — 0.137 · 87.8 · 5.8% 18.2% 16.7% F B O D 42

· — Tristan Peters COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.156 · 87.3 · 6.1% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 42

· — Braden Montgomery vs Gausman Edge — 0.138 · 89.2 · 5.5% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Proxy — 0.101 · 86.0 · 1.1% 8.3% 7.1% F B O D 31

· — Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Gausman Edge +525 0.175 · 88.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· — Sam Antonacci COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.128 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Proxy +575 0.140 · 88.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 46

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy — 0.112 · 86.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for CWS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 51.3% ← leak OFF 38.9% BRK 9.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.2% 17.4% 18.2% 20.7% B 72 +305

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R

16.6% 13.9% 11.1% 14.7% C+ 64 +370

Colson Montgomery L Edge

11.9% 14.6% 11.3% 12.1% C 56 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

11.8% 5.6% 4.5% 8.5% D 47 +525

121

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 3.9% 6.0% 4.5% D 42 —

123

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 4.9% D 42 —

144

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.3% 2.3% 3.3% 4.0% D 39 —

148

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.4% 0.0% 4.9% 5.8% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.3% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman Murakami Vargas Meidroth Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Munetaka Murakami +305 · 72

Pete Crow-Armstrong +370 · 69

Miguel Vargas +370 · 64

Seiya Suzuki +370 · 60

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph out 79°F open

+13

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

7:05p · peak

+13

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

8:05p

+12

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9 mph · out

76°F

9:05p

+10

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8 mph · out

74°F

10:05p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 79°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs CWS Bullpen Proxy 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 69 C+ +370 WARM 9 0.257 90.3 12.1% 18.4% 396 20.6% 30.8% 27.3% 37

2 Seiya Suzuki 60 C+ +370 COOL 32 0.213 89.0 10.5% 18.6% 404 17.5% 25.0% 23.1% 37

3 Ian Happ 58 C +500 COOL 38 0.195 89.3 11.2% 17.7% 402 16.9% 16.7% 17.2% 30

4 Michael Busch 46 D +575 COOL 117 0.140 88.1 8.9% 10.5% 401 11.9% 0.0% 8.3% 41

5 Alex Bregman 44 D +500 WARM 137 0.151 88.3 4.6% 10.5% 387 10.6% 23.1% 15.1% 45

6 Carson Kelly 38 D — COOL 180 0.112 86.9 5.6% 9.7% 413 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% 24

7 Nico Hoerner 31 D — WARM 202 0.101 86.0 1.1% 5.5% 381 5.7% 8.3% 7.1% 46

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 72 B +305 WARM 1 0.308 94.2 12.4% 37.9%vs RHP 403 20.3% 33.3% 34.2% 26

2 Miguel Vargas 64 C+ +370 · 11 0.252 90.7 10.2% 17.5%vs RHP 393 21.7% 25.0% 30.1% 35

3 Colson Montgomery 56 C +400 COOL 33 0.218 88.9 9.5% 25.0%vs RHP 399 21.8% 8.3% 16.0% 28

4 Andrew Benintendi 47 D +525 COOL 80 0.175 88.9 8.0% 16.2%vs RHP 389 13.8% 0.0% 11.5% 21

5 Chase Meidroth 42 D — COOL 121 0.137 87.8 5.8% 17.0%vs RHP 379 8.6% 18.2% 16.7% 31

6 Tristan Peters 42 D — COOL 123 0.156 87.3 6.1% 10.8%vs RHP 377 8.1% 16.7% 9.5% 22

7 Braden Montgomery 39 D — WARM 144 0.138 89.2 5.5% 15.0%vs RHP 383 5.4% 7.7% 8.9% 31

8 Sam Antonacci 39 D — COOL 148 0.128 87.6 6.6% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.3% 0.0% 8.4% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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